Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Brent]

It's not terribly organized but does appear to be slowly doing so and it does have that look to it. This one is going to be one to watch...

[Stratosphere747]

Hey Rock, you got it. For us, this is the one to watch IMO.

I'll be happy to exchange real estate for a few hours, if a threat were to ever verify...

[El Nino]

Holy crap !!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry, just something to say, a remember of last year

Hope to see Ernesto quite fast.

[ROCK]

Hey Rock, you got it. For us, this is the one to watch IMO.

I agree....with those nasty model runs earlier into the GOM, I think all of us Gomers are going to be watching real closely the next 7 days.

[ROCK]

Hey Rock, you got it. For us, this is the one to watch IMO.

I'll be happy to exchange real estate for a few hours, if a threat were to ever verify...

I will pass on that.....

[jasons2k]

^^ yeah me too

[cycloneye]

[clfenwi]

Looking at the 00Z BAMs I couldn't help but notice that there may be the same sort of stacking issue that was present for Invest 91... the Shallow BAM is about 500 nautical miles ahead of the Deep BAM by the end of the forecast period.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Canadian develops this and brings it just north of the Yucatan by 144 hrs. Both the Canadian and GFS erode the ridge across the Gulf Coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 385 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT...IT HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Floater 2 is over 97L.

[Thunder44]

I estimate the center be near 10.2N and 52.5W moving west around 20mph and according to the latest QS pass this morning there doesn't appear to be a surface circulation.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

This needs to develop soon or it's going to be too close South America to form.

[HURAKAN]

How are the conditions in the ECAR?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Canadian develops this and brings it just north of the Yucatan by 144 hrs. Both the Canadian and GFS erode the ridge across the Gulf Coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That CMC path is scary. Hopefully it is wrong.

[cycloneye]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO
11N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS
WAVE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. RESIDENTS WHO LIVE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY.


8 AM Special Feature discussion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey Rock, you got it. For us, this is the one to watch IMO.

I'll be happy to exchange real estate for a few hours, if a threat were to ever verify...

I will pass on that.....

did you guys see this from the AFD this morning?

WITH
THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST.

Seems like anything that works into the Gulf is coming our way...let's just hope 97L doesn't make it to the Gulf.

[boca]

97L seems to be getting juiced up but not consolidating looks like a broken mass of thunderstorms popping up and disipatting.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

How are the conditions in the ECAR?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Needs to stay farily far south to avoid the shear. Proximately to the South American coast may hinder development even if it did. I think we will have to wait until it gets into the Central and Western Carribean for significant development.

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

Boy 41040 north of the system shows brisk winds from the ENE.

Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1035 22.0 kts ENE ( 64 deg true )