TD Debby E Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #D

[Brent]

Yes, I'm talking to a tropical storm. So what?

Oh that's nothing...

The things I talk to.

[Wx_Warrior]

As long as Debby doesn't do Dallas....Ah geesh....Sorry....

I actually live in SE Texas!

[kevin]

[Evil Jeremy]

As long as Debby doesn't do Dallas....Ah geesh....Sorry....

I actually live in SE Texas!

[AnnularCane]

As long as Debby doesn't do Dallas....Ah geesh....Sorry....

This one probably won't, but maybe someday a future Debby will head toward TX. If that is the case, I have a feeling the "Debby does Dallas" jokes are going to get old very fast.

[Brent]

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND
CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION...
IF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS...THEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...AS ALLUDED TO BY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN.

[Scorpion]

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND
CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION...
IF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS...THEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...AS ALLUDED TO BY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN.

And the plot thickens...

[cycloneye]

[cpdaman]

WXMAN57

how strong is your confidence in the models or of the confidence in the models certainity of the steering patterns a few days from now.

i know u said " right now there is no data to support a threat to the u.s , but basically what i'm asking is how confident are u that the steering pattern the models are basically making there path predictions on are etched in stone, or not likely to change drastically.

it may be vague, but i'm asking you cause well, your a pro

[Brent]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/forecast/AL042006lts.gif

The 120 hour position should be a hurricane.

120HR VT 28/0000Z 29.1N 54.0W 65 KT

[cycloneye]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/forecast/AL042006lts.gif

The 120 hour position should be a hurricane.

120HR VT 28/0000Z 29.1N 54.0W 65 KT

[Brent]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/forecast/AL042006lts.gif

The 120 hour position should be a hurricane.

120HR VT 28/0000Z 29.1N 54.0W 65 KT

Yeah, it had the 5pm track at first.

[miamicanes177]

From Stewart, "The BAM models have been atrocious at best"....I wonder what could be worse than atrocious?

[Evil Jeremy]

i still think that it wont go north, and im NOT -removed-!

[NONAME]

Um if it misses the Shortwave Trough then it could possible impact the United states couldn't it?

[wxman57]

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND
CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION...
IF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS...THEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...AS ALLUDED TO BY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN.

Perhaps Stacy Stewart is being a bit over-dramatic. The westward model shift doesn't look very significant. I plotted the better dynamic models including the ones he mentioned. CONU is the tan track on the left side of the tight cluster. All models still indicate a path east of Bermuda. Chances of an east coast hit are small, but that doesn't mean if I lived on the east coast that I'd just turn my back to the ocean and not pay attention.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby14.gif

[wxman57]

From Stewart, "The BAM models have been atrocious at best"....I wonder what could be worse than atrocious?

LBAR?

[senorpepr]

This plot is certainly thickening.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48-72H...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST OR LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...DUE IN PART TO THE CONTINUED WESTWARD SHIFT OF
THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS. THE BAM MODELS HAVE BEEN
ATROCIOUS AT BEST WITH A LARGE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...SO THEY WERE NOT EVEN CONSIDERED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.
THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN OVERDEVELOPING A WEAK
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI NORTHWEST OF DEBBY.
THIS FEATURE IS SO INDISTINCT AND MUCH SMALLER THAN THE CIRCULATION
ENVELOPE OF DEBBY THAT IT IS HARD TO LOCATE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
IN CONTRAST...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE BEEN DOWNPLAYING THE
UPPER-LOW AND DISSIPATE IT COMPLETELY BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE
UPPER-LOW AT BEST IS MOVING WESTWARD AT THE SAME SPEED AS DEBBY...
ANY NORTHWARD INFLUENCE BY THIS SYSTEM ON DEBBY SHOULD BE LESS THAN
DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND
CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION...
IF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS...THEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...AS ALLUDED TO BY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN.

[Evil Jeremy]

the storm is supoused to reach 20N in 48 hours, but my prediction is for it to stay on a WNW track and mis the subtropical ridge completly.

[ConvergenceZone]

I will agree with weatherfreak, miami canes177 because there is a very I mean very slight chance of this system hitting land

Will, be thankful this will be a fish, because we have another MORE IMPORTANT area developing east of the Carib Sea where the latest report is that it could become a depression in the next day or so as it heads into the Carib and the Gulf of Mexico....One storm to hit the USA is enough, we don't need 2 right now, so I"m thankful this is going out to sea...