Hurricane Ileana in EPAC Thread

[wxmann_91]

You people think we don't get hit with strong storms, likes its just light rain and sun alll the time. Not really durning the winter we have 3 or 4 50 to 70 mph wind storms...With maybe 100 mph+ once a year. Inland we can get 40 to 50 2 or more times a winter. With heavy rain. 1962 we seen some winds of 130 mph on the coast(At least in a book a read about it) Over 100 to 110 where I live. 2002 in Feb we saw a storm go through the south valley that had 70+...Which blown roofs off hundreds of houses in trees down every where.

Southern Californina in 1982-1983 they got some powerful storms...Also in 1997,1998 they got some of the worst storms in over 100 plus years. If this hits Southern Califorina in moves into Oregon. I'm going to get my rain stuff on in going out side.

I really don't think you get winds of 100 mph once per year. 50-70 mph, yeah, that's normal for you.

Here in SoCal, 30 mph winds is usually about as high as they get. Twice that is quite crippling. 40-50 mph winds from a squall line two winters ago severely damaged some areas, and that was considered unprecedented.

But these are from winter storms. Tropical systems are a whole other type of beast.

[terstorm1012]

looks gorgeous on satellite

very nice ocean spinning fish storm. i'm having fun tracking this one!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Some winters the coast doe's see 100+ mph storms.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Columbus Day Windstorm of October 1962 [historical photos]
A generation of Oregonians received searing memories that day. This quintessential windstorm became the standard against which all other statewide disasters are now measured. The storm killed 38 people and injured many more and did 170-200 million dollars in damage (over 800 million in today's dollars). Wind gusts reached 116 mph in downtown Portland. Cities lost power for 2 to 3 weeks and over 50,000 dwellings were damaged. Agriculture took a devastating blow as an entire fruit and nut orchards were destroyed. Scores of livestock were killed as barns collapsed or trees were blown over on the animals. In fact, the amount of trees blown down during the Columbus Day storm was nearly 15 times that blown down by the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. More on this storm...

Wind Speeds of the Columbus Day 1962 Storm Location Strongest Wind Speed
Astoria Sustained 44 mph, peak gust of 96 mph
Newport Peak gust of 138 mph before wind instrument was damaged
Mt Hebo radar site Unofficial wind gust of 130 mph.
North Bend Peak gust of 81 mph
Portland, Airport frequent gusts 88 mph, with peak wind gust of 104 mph (estimated since power was lost)
Portland, Downtown Peak wind gust of 93 mph
Morrison Bridge, Portland Peak wind gust of 116 mph
Hillsboro Peak wind gust of 90 mph
Troutdale Sustained wind of 66 mph, peak gust 106 mph
Salem Sustained wind of 58 mph, peak gust 90 mph
Corvallis Peak wind gust of 127 mph at the airport
Eugene Sustained wind of 63 mph, peak gust of 86 mph
Roseburg Peak wind gust of 62 mph
Medford Peak wind gust of 58 mph
Klamath Falls Peak wind gust of 65 mph
Lakeview Peak wind gust of 58 mph
Redmond Peak wind gust of 47 mph
The Dalles Peak wind gust of 29 mph
Pendleton Peak wind gust of 42 mph

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, but not once per year, Matt.

I hope Ileana becomes a Cat 5 and dies in the open Pacific. Uses up some potential energy in the atmosphere and possibly the last storm I seriously track, unless 10th grade is not as difficult as I think it is.

[bob rulz]

Yeah, but not once per year, Matt.

I hope Ileana becomes a Cat 5 and dies in the open Pacific. Uses up some potential energy in the atmosphere and possibly the last storm I seriously track, unless 10th grade is not as difficult as I think it is.

You're really only going into 10th grade?

I'm going into 11th...yes, 10th grade is as hard as you think it is.

[Epsilon_Fan]

beautiful storm... although I can't see it going annular like Daniel. It is the opposite of annular right now with that eye and outflow pattern

[Cyclenall]

The eye of Ileana needs to be more "stable" for everything to go smoothly. I don't want to see the eye change size and width every frame of a loop. Some of the outer rainbands are fading away which happens with Epac systems often. Bud is a good one for example.

The NHC put Ileana at 75 knots at 11:00 pm EST. I don't know about that....

[Andrew92]

Yeah, but not once per year, Matt.

I hope Ileana becomes a Cat 5 and dies in the open Pacific. Uses up some potential energy in the atmosphere and possibly the last storm I seriously track, unless 10th grade is not as difficult as I think it is.

You're really only going into 10th grade?

I'm going into 11th...yes, 10th grade is as hard as you think it is.

Those grades are hard? You guys have no idea what's coming in just a few years......believe me, I know.

Ileana will likely be a major hurricane, quite possibly a C4. I'm not going to predict a C5 at this time for Ileana, however. Just as long as she stays out to sea with the seahorses and sharks though, I'm fine.

-Andrew92

[Normandy]

I think Illeana is def close to major hurricane status....75 kts is def too weak imo.

[wxmann_91]

Your in college Andrew92?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Thats a nice eye...But the red ring it had earlier on Ir is not as good as earlier. I would say 95 knots.

[Andrew92]

Your in college Andrew92?

yep last year.....enjoy high school because college is MUCH tougher.

Anyway, back to the REAL subject. I do expect a C2 at least when I get up, and like I said in my last post, this may be a C4 before all is said and done. But we'll just have to wait and see!

-Andrew92

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2006 Time : 060000 UTC
Lat : 17:04:42 N Lon : 109:49:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 964.2mb/ 99.6kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.4 5.7 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

HURRICANE ILEANA 10E



INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 23



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 16.2 108.6 305./14.0

6 16.9 110.0 295./14.8

12 17.5 111.4 296./14.7

18 18.1 112.7 296./13.5

24 18.7 113.7 297./11.0

30 19.1 114.8 293./11.2

36 19.6 115.8 295./10.7

42 19.9 116.7 287./ 9.5

48 20.4 117.5 299./ 8.7

54 20.6 118.3 290./ 8.1

60 21.0 119.0 296./ 6.6

66 21.4 119.4 312./ 6.2

72 21.8 119.8 324./ 5.4

78 22.2 119.9 338./ 3.7

84 22.7 119.9 2./ 5.2

90 23.1 119.8 12./ 4.0

96 23.4 119.7 20./ 3.2

102 23.6 119.5 54./ 2.7

108 23.7 119.3 58./ 2.5

114 23.7 119.1 106./ 1.6

120 23.5 118.9 126./ 2.6

126 23.3 118.6 129./ 3.6

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2006 Time : 063000 UTC
Lat : 17:08:01 N Lon : 109:55:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 959.8mb/104.6kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -17.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[WmE]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230829
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
200 AM PDT WED AUG 23 2006

ILEANA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING
HURRICANE. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND QUITE SYMMETRIC. LATEST SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100
KT...I.E. A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. THERE IS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION...DURING WHICH TIME THE HURRICANE COULD ATTAIN CAT.
4 STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
ABOUT WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION...310/16... IS FASTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER
FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAKENING OF THIS HIGH AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA. ACCORDINGLY...THE
FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS TRACK AND ALSO
SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. LESS EMPHASIS IS BEING PLACED ON
THE GFS TRACK...AS THAT MODEL HAS A FAR TOO WEAK INITIALIZATION OF
THE HURRICANE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE. THEREFORE LITTLE
MOTION IS SHOWN IN 4-5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.5N 110.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W 110 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 114.4W 115 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 20.7N 116.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 21.3N 117.3W 90 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 119.2W 70 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 121.0W 35 KT

Ileana is now a major!!

[HURAKAN]

WEATHERUNDERGROUND:


Looks like Ileana is rocking the house!!!

(LOUD AND CLEAR)

I'LL QUOTE MYSELF!!!

[SkeetoBite]

[cycloneye]

723
WTPZ45 KNHC 231459
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 23 2006

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OR THE
VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.
ASSUMING THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND IS CONTINUING...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT. HAVING SAID
THAT...THE LAST FEW INFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE COULD BE BEGINNING...WITH BREAKS IN THE INNER RING OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS AND HINTS OF AN OUTER RING DEVELOPING. EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES TEND TO ARREST DEVELOPMENT DURING THE SHORT-TERM
FOLLOWED BY SOME INTENSIFICATION. WHILE FORECASTING SUCH INNER
CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES IS DIFFICULT...ILEANA IS LOCATED WITHIN A
SEEMINGLY OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ILEANA BECOMING A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL
ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THESE
FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY...
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO SHOW A QUICKER DEMISE ONCE ILEANA REACHES
COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
HAS COMMENCED. ACCORDINGLY...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BOTH OF WHICH CONTINUE TO
SUFFER FROM POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE VORTEX STRENGTH AND
STRUCTURE...ARE FURTHER SOUTH SINCE THEY DO NOT RESPOND TO THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH BUT THOSE SOLUTIONS APPEAR LESS LIKELY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS
AND REFLECTS ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

A NEARBY STATION AT SOCORRO ISLAND OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KT WITH GUSTS TO 53 KT AT 1200 UTC.
THIS OBSERVATION WAS USEFUL IN ADJUSTING THE 34 KT WIND RADII
INWARD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.1N 111.5W 105 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W 110 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.8N 116.8W 95 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 21.3N 118.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 22.5N 121.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB