Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[whereverwx]

I know the Debster is out there, but as she's likely going fishing, this is the one to watch for potential US impact. It looks pretty good now, and I agree with Skysummit and Generator that this could become a depression tomorrow.

I also concur.

[bvigal]

For some reason this seems to come up all the time with these systems way down there.

Let's say the system is centered at 10.5N 54W...which his probably a little to far west but let's just say that. At that lat, South America coastline starts at 62.5 or so...and evn counting Trinidad...let's say 61W.

That's 7 degrees of long to go.

At 18 knots...lets compute the time it will take to get there:

7 degrees * 60 mins = 420 mins
420 mins / 18 min per hour = 23.33 hours

So a day before the center gets that far if it were moving due west. But the system is moving at 280...10 degrees north of due west. So 1 degree north for every 9 west (I think). So if my trig is correct...the center moving at 280/18 would be up near 11.5 61.2 or so in 23.3 hours.

At the very least the center will remain over water...and I wouldn't be shocked to see it gain a little more lat and slow down a tad before tomorrow...

MW

Mike, thanks so much for explaining this 'crash into South America' thing! I was typing my own explaination a couple of time in the last day or so, but never posted. You did it much better!

[chadtm80]

For some reason this seems to come up all the time with these systems way down there.

Let's say the system is centered at 10.5N 54W...which his probably a little to far west but let's just say that. At that lat, South America coastline starts at 62.5 or so...and evn counting Trinidad...let's say 61W.

That's 7 degrees of long to go.

At 18 knots...lets compute the time it will take to get there:

7 degrees * 60 mins = 420 mins
420 mins / 18 min per hour = 23.33 hours

So a day before the center gets that far if it were moving due west. But the system is moving at 280...10 degrees north of due west. So 1 degree north for every 9 west (I think). So if my trig is correct...the center moving at 280/18 would be up near 11.5 61.2 or so in 23.3 hours.

At the very least the center will remain over water...and I wouldn't be shocked to see it gain a little more lat and slow down a tad before tomorrow...

MW

Hmm Logical.. Thats why I didnt think of it.. lol. Thanks for edumicating us Mike.. Appreciate it

[bvigal]

I don't believe this will take until tomorrow to be a TD. (JMO) It's going to happen before we go to bed tonight, or by morning.

[abajan]

It's too close to Barbados to be of any real concern to us but you guys north and west of us better keep your eyes on this one.

Btw, it's been pretty windy and hazy here since late last night. We also had some thunder yesterday and into the early evening hours. As a matter of fact, not far from my location, lightning struck and burnt some clothes that were hanging on a clothesline!

Thankfully, no one was hurt.

[hiflyer]

Hey abajan...read elsewhere that the NOAA C130's may be on the island...have you seen them? And possibly the G4.

[abajan]

Hey abajan...read elsewhere that the NOAA C130's may be on the island...have you seen them? And possibly the G4.

They probably are here but I haven't heard or seen them.
Come to think of it, Prime Minister Tony Blair and his family is (or were) here too but I haven't seen or heard them either!

[bvigal]

Hey Bajan!! I wouldn't discount it due to proximity, can still get some nasty tstorms and wind. So glad to hear only the clothes on the line were burned, could have been deadly!

Just found at NRL-ATCF - not working yet, but AL9706

[Patrick99]

Looks just a *little* bit better every time I check up on it. I don't see a tight low level circ though.

[abajan]

Hey Bajan!! I wouldn't discount it due to proximity, can still get some nasty tstorms and wind. So glad to hear only the clothes on the line were burned, could have been deadly!

Just found at NRL-ATCF - not working yet, but AL9706

Thanks, bvigal. I'll keep that in mind but I won't lose any sleep over it.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

2:05pm Discussion
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 20N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION
ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. DESPITE ITS STRUCTURE...DEEP CONVECTION IS
W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE N EXTENSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST.

[SWFLA_CANE]

NHC doesn't seem too impressed with the wave.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1745 UTC 10.1N 55.1W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 1800 060824 0600 060824 1800 060825 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 54.7W 10.9N 57.1W 11.2N 59.2W 11.5N 61.2W
BAMM 10.7N 54.7W 11.0N 57.4W 11.5N 59.8W 12.0N 62.0W
A98E 10.7N 54.7W 11.3N 58.6W 11.7N 62.0W 11.9N 65.0W
LBAR 10.7N 54.7W 11.2N 58.0W 11.7N 61.1W 12.1N 64.5W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 1800 060826 1800 060827 1800 060828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 63.0W 13.1N 66.7W 15.2N 70.9W 17.8N 75.0W
BAMM 12.7N 63.9W 14.1N 67.6W 16.1N 72.1W 18.8N 76.5W
A98E 11.9N 67.5W 12.6N 71.5W 13.9N 74.9W 16.3N 78.5W
LBAR 12.4N 67.8W 14.2N 73.5W 17.0N 77.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 70KTS 78KTS 84KTS
DSHP 57KTS 70KTS 78KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 50.7W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 47.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[skysummit]

Well we no longer have a "Too Weak". Each frame looks better and better.
SSD Visible Animiation

[DESTRUCTION5]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 1800 060824 0600 060824 1800 060825 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 54.7W 10.9N 57.1W 11.2N 59.2W 11.5N 61.2W
BAMM 10.7N 54.7W 11.0N 57.4W 11.5N 59.8W 12.0N 62.0W
A98E 10.7N 54.7W 11.3N 58.6W 11.7N 62.0W 11.9N 65.0W
LBAR 10.7N 54.7W 11.2N 58.0W 11.7N 61.1W 12.1N 64.5W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 1800 060826 1800 060827 1800 060828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 63.0W 13.1N 66.7W 15.2N 70.9W 17.8N 75.0W
BAMM 12.7N 63.9W 14.1N 67.6W 16.1N 72.1W 18.8N 76.5W
A98E 11.9N 67.5W 12.6N 71.5W 13.9N 74.9W 16.3N 78.5W
LBAR 12.4N 67.8W 14.2N 73.5W 17.0N 77.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 70KTS 78KTS 84KTS
DSHP 57KTS 70KTS 78KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 50.7W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 47.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Ships calling Cat 2

[jasons2k]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1745 UTC 10.1N 55.1W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

Interesting - not a "Too Weak"

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 1800 060824 0600 060824 1800 060825 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 54.7W 10.9N 57.1W 11.2N 59.2W 11.5N 61.2W
BAMM 10.7N 54.7W 11.0N 57.4W 11.5N 59.8W 12.0N 62.0W
A98E 10.7N 54.7W 11.3N 58.6W 11.7N 62.0W 11.9N 65.0W
LBAR 10.7N 54.7W 11.2N 58.0W 11.7N 61.1W 12.1N 64.5W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 1800 060826 1800 060827 1800 060828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 63.0W 13.1N 66.7W 15.2N 70.9W 17.8N 75.0W
BAMM 12.7N 63.9W 14.1N 67.6W 16.1N 72.1W 18.8N 76.5W
A98E 11.9N 67.5W 12.6N 71.5W 13.9N 74.9W 16.3N 78.5W
LBAR 12.4N 67.8W 14.2N 73.5W 17.0N 77.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 70KTS 78KTS 84KTS
DSHP 57KTS 70KTS 78KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 50.7W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 47.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[crown]

It's too close to Barbados to be of any real concern to us but you guys north and west of us better keep your eyes on this one.

Btw, it's been pretty windy and hazy here since late last night. We also had some thunder yesterday and into the early evening hours. As a matter of fact, not far from my location, lightning struck and burnt some clothes that were hanging on a clothesline!

Thankfully, no one was hurt.

Hi ABajan,

Where are you located? I live in St Andrew.

[Stormcenter]

This "currently" still looks like only Central America threat. But I wouldn't bet a penny on it.