Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[beachbum_al]

THE WINDS OF CHANGE.

Those two pics really show how much this storm is growing. WOW! I think we possibility might have Ernesto by tomorrow or earlier.

[LAwxrgal]

Does this have a potential to track similar to Charlie, Wilma, or Ivan or is it more likely to effect the Yucatan and BOC?

I'm thinking a path similar to, maybe slightly north of, that of Emily.

Emily? If I'm not mistaken, didn't that storm hit northern Mexico? Are you thinking south or middle Texas?

I think you guys are right. This could be a biggie.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Maybe this will be the system of the 2006 season in terms of most strengh.

Unfortunately this is probably just the begining of the real season.

[bvigal]

Maybe they figure the public isn't as smart as you? I dunno. I could see a TCFA for 97L or 92C but the others are "where's the storm?" at least at first glance. Well, we'll know if the Wunderground TC graphic lights up like a switchboard in the next few hours.

You mean I should wait for wunderground to verify for me what NRL is doing under direction from NHC? Don't you have any confidence in them? Maybe the software is malfunctioning, yes, but otherwise they don't post Formation Alerts if they don't plan to issue them.

18z from National Hurricane Center

Code: Select all

             ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  10.7N LONCUR =  54.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
  LATM12 =  10.1N LONM12 =  50.7W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
  LATM24 =   9.7N LONM24 =  47.1W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


new position: 10.7N 54.7W, and 1010mb

[CrazyC83]

Does this have a potential to track similar to Charlie, Wilma, or Ivan or is it more likely to effect the Yucatan and BOC?

I'm thinking a path similar to, maybe slightly north of, that of Emily.

Emily? If I'm not mistaken, didn't that storm hit northern Mexico? Are you thinking south or middle Texas?

I think you guys are right. This could be a biggie.

Yep that is correct; I am thinking south Texas/northern Mexico, after clipping the northern Yucatan.

[ROCK]

Does this have a potential to track similar to Charlie, Wilma, or Ivan or is it more likely to effect the Yucatan and BOC?

I'm thinking a path similar to, maybe slightly north of, that of Emily.

Emily? If I'm not mistaken, didn't that storm hit northern Mexico? Are you thinking south or middle Texas?

I think you guys are right. This could be a biggie.

Emily was into NMexico.....

[Noles2006]

I'm thinking it's FAR too early to be picking a landfall zone, let alone a specific state.

[frederic79]

Latest Conditions at Buoy 41101: 1012.8 mb and falling. This looks to be well north of the circulation center with E Winds.

[fwbbreeze]

I'm thinking it's FAR too early to be picking a landfall zone, let alone a specific state.

I concur, 18z models indicate a possible NW caribbean path but beyond that its too early to call. I know if I was in Jamaica or the Cayman's I would be paying serious attention to this developing situation.

BTW GO NOLES BEAT THE CANES!!

[Windtalker1]

I'm thinking it's FAR too early to be picking a landfall zone, let alone a specific state.

I concur, 18z models indicate a possible NW caribbean path but beyond that its too early to call. I know if I was in Jamaica or the Cayman's I would be paying serious attention to this developing situation.

or CUBA

[LAwxrgal]

Agreed. Folks in Jamaica and the Caymans need to watch this especially carefully over the next couple days....and then after that we watch over in the gulf states. But the first concern is for folks in the Caribbean islands...

[jlauderdal]

I'm thinking it's FAR too early to be picking a landfall zone, let alone a specific state.

not if you live in texas

[Johnny]

Keep this sucker away from southeast, Texas! I've got a huge pumpkin patch out back and it doesn't need this system if it's a biggun'.

I don't see too much that will make this curve off to the northeast. It looks like a straight shot into the gulf and even possibly hitting the Yucatan and into Mexico or South, Texas. South, Texas and the Hill Country of Texas are starving for moisture. They will take what they can get!

[dwg71]

Isn't the SE Caribbean a graveyard for TS development, I know some have made it, but haven't many died out once entering that far south?

[Air Force Met]

I'm thinking it's FAR too early to be picking a landfall zone, let alone a specific state.

not if you live in texas

Has EWG chimed in on his track guess yet?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Isn't the SE Caribbean a graveyard for TS development, I know some have made it, but haven't many died out once entering that far south?

IVAN laughed at that rumor...

[dwg71]

THE WINDS OF CHANGE.

Those two pics really show how much this storm is growing. WOW! I think we possibility might have Ernesto by tomorrow or earlier.

They are not to scale, it doesn't show much.

[cycloneye]

Isn't the SE Caribbean a graveyard for TS development, I know some have made it, but haven't many died out once entering that far south?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Ivan got stronger at the so called graveyard.

[Derek Ortt]

The E Caribbean is either very unfavorable or very favorable

This time it looks to be the latter

[LAwxrgal]

Yep, became Cat 5 three times, twice in the so-called graveyard.