TD Debby E Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #D

[storms in NC]

[img=http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/3884/debbytg5.th.jpg]

[Extreme Alde]

Here ya go. 17.4N/32.1W at 1715Z:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby15.gif

Wicked - cheers!

[dwg71]

Looks to be on life support now, definately not strengthening at this time.

[hiflyer]

Here ya go. 17.4N/32.1W at 1715Z:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby15.gif

DC8 must have heard you...doing a third pass thru that area right now still at 10,000. Wish I could see the data.

[curtadams]

RGB shows it's even worse than it looks on vis. The LLC is almost exposed - covered by only some wispy outflow. Most of the convection is just outflow - active convection is confined to an arc S of the center, and it's weak. There looks to be some NWly shear too.

[hiflyer]

DC8 still in that area but now is showing an altitude of only 500 climbing to 1500 feet! Ahhh to be in that big ol DC8-72....must be a heck of a ride.
Picture of the aircraft-
http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1041022/L/

[whereverwx]

She looks shallow.

[storms in NC]

DC8 still in that area but now is showing an altitude of only 500 climbing to 1500 feet! Ahhh to be in that big ol DC8-72....must be a heck of a ride.
Picture of the aircraft-
http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1041022/L/

Glad I am not on there. I would be

[CrazyC83]

I think Debby will hold her own for the next day or two. She may not have the headlines for very long if the new blob gets developed...

[beachbum_al]

Ole Debby looks like she has had just a little too much bad sea water today.

[CrazyC83]

Ole Debby looks like she has had just a little too much bad sea water today.

Yeah, it is hard to intensify very fast out there. She has time on her side though. I think Debby will be out there a while but will fall into Ernesto's shadows soon...

However, I still think Debby will just be going , regardless of strength.

[SouthFloridawx]

Debby should follow the low level steering flow since the convection is not all that deep anymore.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

As notied in the Discussion it should follow a wnw path for the next 2-3 days.

It is interesting for me to read the discussion last night where Stewart, discounted the Bamm models (GFS Backround).

This morning and this afternoon basically saying that the NOGAPS seemed to be the outlier model.

The evolution of the Upper Level trough will be key in the next day or 2.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

The GFS strengthens this ULT and the NOGAPS weakens it.

[gatorcane]

Debby should follow the low level steering flow since the convection is not all that deep anymore.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

As notied in the Discussion it should follow a wnw path for the next 2-3 days.

It is interesting for me to read the discussion last night where Stewart, discounted the Bamm models (GFS Backround).

This morning and this afternoon basically saying that the NOGAPS seemed to be the outlier model.

The evolution of the Upper Level trough will be key in the next day or 2.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

The GFS strengthens this ULT and the NOGAPS weakens it.

Yes I agree that NW movement is not as likely now that she has significantly weakened - she is already moving more WNW with the low-leve flow....

I suspected she would weaken, it could be temporary but right now she looks very bad. She is fighthing hard to go into "stealth mode" and slip under the weakness. Let's see if she can do it.

[superfly]

The waters out there are only 26-27 C so I don't see Debby strengthening much.

[Patrick99]

Debby looks terrible. She's leaving all her convection behind....just like the last Debby.

The storms that have spun up this year just can't seem to fire much convection. When they do, they don't maintain it.

[CrazyC83]

The waters out there are only 26-27 C so I don't see Debby strengthening much.

For now, correct.

However, Debby does have 29-30C water ahead of her, so she could strengthen there if she makes it. It isn't very deep so rapid intensification is not likely going to happen though.

[Damar91]

If she continues to struggle, wouldn't that put her in a better postion to stay further south and west of the projected track?

[CrazyC83]

If she continues to struggle, wouldn't that put her in a better postion to stay further south and west of the projected track?

Yes and no. Notice the warm waters around 27N/50W. That could strengthen her while safely taking her out to sea.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 4atsst.png

[Damar91]

If she continues to struggle, wouldn't that put her in a better postion to stay further south and west of the projected track?

Yes and no. Notice the warm waters around 27N/50W. That could strengthen her while safely taking her out to sea.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 4atsst.png

Good point. But.... if you look at the wator vapor. lots of dry air ahead of her if she stays going NW. That should weaken her considerably, right?

[LAwxrgal]

Debby should follow the low level steering flow since the convection is not all that deep anymore.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

As notied in the Discussion it should follow a wnw path for the next 2-3 days.

It is interesting for me to read the discussion last night where Stewart, discounted the Bamm models (GFS Backround).

This morning and this afternoon basically saying that the NOGAPS seemed to be the outlier model.

The evolution of the Upper Level trough will be key in the next day or 2.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

The GFS strengthens this ULT and the NOGAPS weakens it.

Yes I agree that NW movement is not as likely now that she has significantly weakened - she is already moving more WNW with the low-leve flow....

I suspected she would weaken, it could be temporary but right now she looks very bad. She is fighthing hard to go into "stealth mode" and slip under the weakness. Let's see if she can do it.

Is this still a 50 mph tropical storm? I haven't followed her very much.