Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

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the_winds_that_sheared_me
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#141 Postby the_winds_that_sheared_me » Wed Aug 23, 2006 5:54 pm

Looks like the Canadian from this time around (12z) gave it a double mexico landfall-different from the 00Z Canadian which indicated it turning more northward after clipping the Yucatan. Looks like the models have shifted away from the US which is great news for the Gulf. :sun:
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#142 Postby Beam » Wed Aug 23, 2006 5:59 pm

the_winds_that_sheared_me wrote:Looks like the Canadian from this time around (12z) gave it a double mexico landfall-different from the 00Z Canadian which indicated it turning more northward after clipping the Yucatan. Looks like the models have shifted away from the US which is great news for the Gulf. :sun:


It's only sorta-okay news, actually. We're still over a week out, so there's no real point in trying to guess anything beyond the caribbean. The canadian is also pretty weak at tropical forecasts. Patience, grasshopper. We just have to watch and wait.
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#143 Postby Regit » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:01 pm

It's not even sorta-okay news. Two hits in areas that were hit hard last year? Sounds pretty horrible if you ask me.
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#144 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:02 pm

gopherfan21 wrote:Storm ID = al972006 Every invest #, depression/storm/cane# is a storm id.

Please get your facts straight.


Also...

i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.


There is nothing that suggests this except a few models which, as usual, are recurving this system way too early into Hispanola towards S FL. This is wrong, as it assumes the models have a developed system and furthermore at these time distances, these models have a poor track record of recurving systems early (and in this case, it would be recurving a storm directly into the Bermuda High--wrong). This is more of a W Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico threat if it develops. Don't let your location blind you to what's actually happening in the tropics.


remember wilma's path? an charlie too?still a possible threat!
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#145 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:03 pm

What does Wilma and Charlie have to do with this? Just curious...
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#146 Postby Beam » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:05 pm

Regit wrote:It's not even sorta-okay news. Two hits in areas that were hit hard last year? Sounds pretty horrible if you ask me.


Well, it's going to hit land somewhere or another eventually. If it becomes a hurricane, it's going to suck regardless of where that "somewhere" is. I think the_winds meant it was good news for the gulf coast.
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#147 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:06 pm

I see that the wave has become sharper then earlier. Now only about 1/2 to 1 degrees between the southeast and northwest winds over the northern side of the wave. The center appears to be 11 north/51.5 west moving west-northwestward. Convection has fired over the center. Which is tighting/organizing the system. I expect a close over the next 6 to 12 hours.

Also the tutt is over the Eastern Caribbean with 20 knot increases in shear. Thats not a suprize. But overall over the system the shear is decreasing at 10 knots. Which means there is something of a Anticyclone over the system. But you do see clouds at 15 north racing eastward. NOT GOOD.

I think this will become something but something big not very likely. For one will that tutt back to the west. In will it back fast enough to stay ahead of this system...Because if it backs to slow this will likely be a chris 2#.

Lets see if we can get Ernesto in here. Maybe soon!
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#148 Postby cajungal » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:07 pm

wxman57 wrote:As far as I can see, all dynamic guidance points toward something in the NW Caribbean by Monday evening. Beyond that point, the EC has a ridge over Alabama to Florida, pointing to a NW track into northern Mexico or Texas, perhaps as far east as SW Louisiana. The GFS and Canadian indicate a stronger ridge north of the system and a track into Mexico or south Texas. Nothing that I can see would indicate a trof that would turn it northward toward Florida. The trof is well east of Florida betwen 60-70W. So if the system misses that trof (likely), then nothing to steer it northward until the western Gulf.


That does not spell a great sign of relief for people in Louisiana. Rita hit the LA/TX border and it severly flooded my area from 200 miles away. Of course, this is NOT even a depression yet, so anything can happen.
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#149 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:09 pm

tracktrack possiblities. just making refrences.
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#150 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:11 pm

Its way to early to make a track forecast for the Gulf of this system. Look at the model trend. The ridge can be stronger or the trough could be stronger thats whats going to make the final track.
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#151 Postby LAwxrgal » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:11 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
gopherfan21 wrote:Storm ID = al972006 Every invest #, depression/storm/cane# is a storm id.

Please get your facts straight.


Also...

i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.


There is nothing that suggests this except a few models which, as usual, are recurving this system way too early into Hispanola towards S FL. This is wrong, as it assumes the models have a developed system and furthermore at these time distances, these models have a poor track record of recurving systems early (and in this case, it would be recurving a storm directly into the Bermuda High--wrong). This is more of a W Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico threat if it develops. Don't let your location blind you to what's actually happening in the tropics.


remember wilma's path? an charlie too?still a possible threat!


Wilma occurred in October, and Charley in August, but both were pulled up by strong troughs that extended well into the Gulf. I don't see this as being the case this time around.
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#152 Postby Fego » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:15 pm

Still looking nice at this hour.

Image
Last edited by Fego on Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#153 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:16 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 1800 060824 0600 060824 1800 060825 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 54.7W 11.2N 57.1W 11.5N 59.2W 11.8N 61.1W
BAMM 11.0N 54.7W 11.2N 57.5W 11.7N 59.9W 12.1N 62.1W
A98E 11.0N 54.7W 11.5N 58.2W 11.9N 61.4W 12.1N 64.2W
LBAR 11.0N 54.7W 11.2N 57.8W 11.7N 61.1W 12.1N 64.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 1800 060826 1800 060827 1800 060828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.1N 62.9W 13.3N 66.5W 15.3N 70.7W 17.7N 74.8W
BAMM 12.8N 64.0W 14.2N 67.8W 16.2N 72.3W 18.9N 76.6W
A98E 12.2N 66.6W 13.0N 70.6W 14.3N 74.1W 16.6N 77.7W
LBAR 12.4N 68.0W 14.3N 73.5W 17.6N 76.3W 19.5N 79.3W
SHIP 55KTS 69KTS 80KTS 87KTS
DSHP 55KTS 69KTS 80KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 51.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 47.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


They just released a new position for 97L,11.0n-54.7w and ship goes more strong now up to 87kts more strong than earlier this afternoon when ship was at 84kts..
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#154 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:19 pm

the_winds_that_sheared_me wrote:Looks like the Canadian from this time around (12z) gave it a double mexico landfall-different from the 00Z Canadian which indicated it turning more northward after clipping the Yucatan. Looks like the models have shifted away from the US which is great news for the Gulf. :sun:


I think Texas is much more likely of a landfall than Mexico. I don't see it going that far West....The models will change a dozen times before we are all said and done.. I 'm thinking Central to Southern Texas.
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#155 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:20 pm

Hey wxman57, if it comes more W when would it be a potential threat to the Upper TX Coast................should it make this far??
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#156 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:21 pm

Image
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#157 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:23 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
the_winds_that_sheared_me wrote:Looks like the Canadian from this time around (12z) gave it a double mexico landfall-different from the 00Z Canadian which indicated it turning more northward after clipping the Yucatan. Looks like the models have shifted away from the US which is great news for the Gulf. :sun:


I think Texas is much more likely of a landfall than Mexico. I don't see it going that far West....The models will change a dozen times before we are all said and done.. I 'm thinking Central to Southern Texas.


I am think anywhere on the GOM coast at this point. Enough weakness to send whatever into LA, MS,AL, or FL....
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#158 Postby cajungal » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:25 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:Image
Until it is actually a depression, it could be anyone's problem. Because we don't know where the actual center will be. But my opinion is that TX/LA need to pay even more close attention. And that has nothing at all to do with my location before anyone even points it out. Because it is still waaay too early to tell what the track will be.
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#159 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:26 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.


Do you have any data to back that up...or is this because you live there...
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#160 Postby Lowpressure » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:28 pm

I am with cajungal, let it develop before we start the landfall forecasting.
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