Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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rnbaida
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cycloneye
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rnbaida wrote:the GFDL brings this system to 110mph at 120 hours.... We may have a major system on our hands.
Do you have a link to see that run?
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
These types of storms plow right through ridges...you know that.... -
rnbaida
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johngaltfla
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Air Force Met wrote:Windtalker1 wrote: Funny how "nobody" caught on to that big trof in the gulf to prepare the people better in Charlies path. Everyone was saying TAMPA
?????
The trof is what turned Charlie. If you look at landfall and forecasted track in terms of ACTUAL error...it was less than 40 nm! The error comes in he fact that the coast of Florida is shaped in one way...and the storm was moving another...so the slighted error in heading leads to a huge landfalling error....plus there were other factors invovled that caused Charlie to go in a little earlier.
Your talking like the landfall forecast 24 hours out was Alabama...and that is not the case. Again...the actual track error was small...it was the angle that worked against the people in the path of Charlie...not the forecast.
To return to the original subject, first I have to say is this; it was a small storm. The size of Charlie had a lot to do with the degree of error. Up to one hour before landfall, all of us in the Venice-Sarasota area thought we were toast.
I have nothing but applause for the mets that day. They did the best they can with a strong Cat 4 which behaved like a wild afternoon thunderstorm directionally speaking. When that low front dropped I prayed like hell it would steer it away from us but alot of my friends unfortunately paid the price.
This storm is nothing like Charlie. It isn't even a storm yet. Give it 24 hours. Give the mets and models 48 to get a good picture of the upcoming climatology next week.
Then get excited or calm down. It's way too early in the ball game to proclaim Ernesto another Charlie, please.
Just give the pros some time to digest data. That's all I ask.
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rolltide
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PTrackerLA wrote:A VERY precarious location for a storm this time of the year in relation to the gulf. We all need to keep an eye on this one (Ernesto).
You got that right. And from what the models are showing it looks like we may be looking at something headed towards the central GOM next week.
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Frank P
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Reminds me somewhat of an Ivan track if you average them out... hard to tell where its going to go but sure looks to have that GOM on its target....
NGOM is NOT ready for another storm of ANY kind... wish people would stop the hype saying this is going to the the BIG ONE... seems like so often this premature speculation is made without amy scientific basis, other than feeling... once a storm becomes a major then u can hype all you want, because at that time people in harms way need to be scared enough to take all precautions necessary to ensure their familys safety, but until that happens, a lot of us still are stiff sufferening damaged psyches from Katrina.... fortunately those people who do such hyping are only taking a WAG... and its not even a SWAG either.....
won't see the pros and moderators making such statements without scientific basis.... they are the voice of sanity on the forum.... thanks guys, you know who you are...
NGOM is NOT ready for another storm of ANY kind... wish people would stop the hype saying this is going to the the BIG ONE... seems like so often this premature speculation is made without amy scientific basis, other than feeling... once a storm becomes a major then u can hype all you want, because at that time people in harms way need to be scared enough to take all precautions necessary to ensure their familys safety, but until that happens, a lot of us still are stiff sufferening damaged psyches from Katrina.... fortunately those people who do such hyping are only taking a WAG... and its not even a SWAG either.....
won't see the pros and moderators making such statements without scientific basis.... they are the voice of sanity on the forum.... thanks guys, you know who you are...
Last edited by Frank P on Wed Aug 23, 2006 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Evil Jeremy
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Air Force Met
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