Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[Rainband]

and north=florida

Well the GFDL has shifted well to the south...

Still a ridge to contend with...so where it is going to be?

Florida...... These types of storms plow right through ridges...you know that....

Florida looks safe for the time being. The current pattern protects us. *Thanks God* I am really disturbed, especially after the past few years how many people still want a Major storm. Sad. Hopefully this goes poof and doesn't hurt anyone or anything.

[Air Force Met]

Depression at 11pm?

No.

Why not, Air Force Met? Please, explain...

I'll answer your question with a statement and a question.

1st the statement: The NHC doesn't upgrade ANYTHING without proof that there is a closed LLC...I.E. a west wind...espcially not something this far out. Now there has been the occasional Grace...but there was a lot of sfc data to suggest something there...

Now the question: Where is the proof this is a TD?

[IsaacRules06]

well if anyone needs a historical track history lesson, try David 1979 (if you root for a more northern track) or Charley 2004 (we all know what happened there)

I have a feeling that Jamaica is not going to be a fun place to be in a few days...

let the madness begin!

[ALhurricane]

[quote=�Air Force Met�][quote=�Windtalker1�] Funny how �nobody� caught on to that big trof in the gulf to prepare the people better in Charlies path. Everyone was saying TAMPA[/quote]

?????



The trof is what turned Charlie. If you look at landfall and forecasted track in terms of ACTUAL error...it was less than 40 nm! The error comes in he fact that the coast of Florida is shaped in one way...and the storm was moving another...so the slighted error in heading leads to a huge landfalling error....plus there were other factors invovled that caused Charlie to go in a little earlier.

Your talking like the landfall forecast 24 hours out was Alabama...and that is not the case. Again...the actual track error was small...it was the angle that worked against the people in the path of Charlie...not the forecast.[/quote]

It also had a lot to do with the media fixation on Tampa. I don't want to get on a soapbox here, but the NHC forecast was very very good! Everybody had plenty of warning. You also never saw the NHC specifically mention landfall in Tampa (like they would ever do that). They let the hurricane warnings be the guide.

Like AFM said, Charley had a completely different synoptic setup to deal with. There was anomalously deep trough digging into the western and central Gulf for that time of year. Nothing like that at this time or anytime soon.

[Rainband]

well if anyone needs a historical track history lesson, try David 1979 (if you root for a more northern track) or Charley 2004 (we all know what happened there)

I have a feeling that Jamaica is not going to be a fun place to be in a few days...

let the madness begin!

Charley was the exception. remember the strong trof.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is highly unlikely to hit the TUTT

Okay, I apologize if this is an ignorant question, but what is TUTT?


Thanks
Dusty (who's still learning here).

[Thunder44]

This evenings QS pass shows no closed surface circulation. Just a sharper wave axis:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

[rolltide]

When is the next quicksat pass showing the winds?

[Sanibel]

The reason I think we have the real deal here is it pulled the thick convection up over the top in good curvature.

[drezee]

the GFDL brings this system to 110mph at 120 hours.... We may have a major system on our hands.

Do you have a link to see that run?

I have accuweather pro....you can sign up for a free 30 day trial

I have pro as well he is right the GFDL has surface winds over 100 knots. It has it just E of the Isle of Youth. It has a mean storm

[rolltide]

This evenings QS pass shows no closed surface circulation. Just a sharp wave axis:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

Thanks

[Sanibel]

TUTT = Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough


An upper level feature of circulating air that disrupts cyclone formation.

[SouthFloridawx]

This is highly unlikely to hit the TUTT

Okay, I apologize if this is an ignorant question, but what is TUTT?


Thanks
Dusty (who's still learning here).

A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is a trough situated in upper level (at about 200 hPa) tropics. Its formation is usually caused by the expansion of the Trough of Westeriles Wind to the tropics. It can also develop from the inverted trough at the south of a upper level anticyclone. TUTTs are different from mid-latitude troughs in the sense that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiation cooling.

TUTTs sometimes brings a large amount of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and cyclones and thus hinder their development. On the contrary, there are cases that TUTTs assist the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. Moreover, under specific circumstances, TUTTs can grow into upper cold lows and may enhance the development of low level disturbances.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_U ... ric_Trough

[drezee]

This evenings QS pass shows no closed surface circulation. Just a sharper wave axis:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

The same pass has Debby as an open wave as well...

[IsaacRules06]

I mentioned Charley more so for his origins, not saying this possible storm will make the turn to FL...any storm on a WNW track from current spot now to anywhere near Jamaica will be a huge headache for all GOMers...especially if the thing really starts cranking.

as for all the people moaning about this slow season, good thing you did not have this forum at your disposal during the 1970s....there would be about three posts per day!

[Evil Jeremy]

"Major Hurricane Ernesto", now THAT sounds evil.

[Javlin]

I would have to agree Frank it's got to develop first.This is the first system this season that has really caught my eye.That said I believe there is some validity to Matt's comments about the shear that may lay ahead viva the TUTT.The shear map and tendency's are showing the same thing some but they are far from exact.If it can stay behind the shear we may have something to watch and It sure looks alot better than it did this morning.

[Stormavoider]

This is highly unlikely to hit the TUTT

Okay, I apologize if this is an ignorant question, but what is TUTT?


Thanks
Dusty (who's still learning here).

A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is a trough situated in upper level (at about 200 hPa) tropics. Its formation is usually caused by the expansion of the Trough of Westeriles Wind to the tropics. It can also develop from the inverted trough at the south of a upper level anticyclone. TUTTs are different from mid-latitude troughs in the sense that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiation cooling.

TUTTs sometimes brings a large amount of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and cyclones and thus hinder their development. On the contrary, there are cases that TUTTs assist the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. Moreover, under specific circumstances, TUTTs can grow into upper cold lows and may enhance the development of low level disturbances.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_U ... ric_Trough

Okay, I also apologize, Were is it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

[ConvergenceZone]

and north=florida

Well the GFDL has shifted well to the south...

Still a ridge to contend with...so where it is going to be?

Florida...... These types of storms plow right through ridges...you know that....

Florida looks safe for the time being. The current pattern protects us. *Thanks God* I am really disturbed, especially after the past few years how many people still want a Major storm. Sad. Hopefully this goes poof and doesn't hurt anyone or anything.

Rainband, I don't think anyone is HOPING for a major. I think the excitement and enthusiam you are seeing is akin to the same type you see when a tornado chaser sees a tornado form. Tornado chasers get more excited if they think it's an F5 as opposed to an F1, but no normal sane person wants to see death and destruction....It's all about the fascination and thrills of development, nothing more, nothing less...

Dusty

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thunder, that quickscat shows some 35 to 40 knot winds. It is becoming sharper we will likely have a tropical storm when this thing finally closes a west wind.