Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[Sanibel]

There's a fairly moist WV environment ahead of this.

[ConvergenceZone]

TUTT = Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough


An upper level feature of circulating air that disrupts cyclone formation.

Ahh thanx Sanibel,
much appreciated...

[Rainband]

and north=florida

Well the GFDL has shifted well to the south...

Still a ridge to contend with...so where it is going to be?

Florida...... These types of storms plow right through ridges...you know that....

Florida looks safe for the time being. The current pattern protects us. *Thanks God* I am really disturbed, especially after the past few years how many people still want a Major storm. Sad. Hopefully this goes poof and doesn't hurt anyone or anything.

Rainband, I don't think anyone is HOPING for a major. I think the excitement and enthusiam you are seeing is akin to the same type you see when a tornado chaser sees a tornado form. Tornado chasers get more excited if they think it's an F5 as opposed to an F1, but no normal sane person wants to see death and instruction....It's all about the fascination and thrills of development, nothing more, nothing less...

Dusty

I know what you are saying.

[LAwxrgal]

There's a fairly moist WV environment ahead of this.

Its environment appears to me and my untrained self to be pretty favorable...all it needs is to close off a circulation center. (Of course I hope it goes poof...)

[ConvergenceZone]

This is highly unlikely to hit the TUTT

Okay, I apologize if this is an ignorant question, but what is TUTT?


Thanks
Dusty (who's still learning here).

A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is a trough situated in upper level (at about 200 hPa) tropics. Its formation is usually caused by the expansion of the Trough of Westeriles Wind to the tropics. It can also develop from the inverted trough at the south of a upper level anticyclone. TUTTs are different from mid-latitude troughs in the sense that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiation cooling.

TUTTs sometimes brings a large amount of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and cyclones and thus hinder their development. On the contrary, there are cases that TUTTs assist the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. Moreover, under specific circumstances, TUTTs can grow into upper cold lows and may enhance the development of low level disturbances.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_U ... ric_Trough

thanx for posting...nice reading...
Thanks!

[AHurricaneWatcherinMS]

Where does this future storm have a chance to hit when it get's into GOM?

[whereverwx]

A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued.

I should bump your post, because I missed it. This is hard to keep up with... lol.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well my internet has been down all day, and I am finally getting on tonight to say WOW. This thing is looking much more impressive! I will be watching this one closely for sure. I just hope I don't have to prepare for a storm anytime soon (though I am not liking my odds right now if something does develop).

[KatDaddy]

I dont like the location and possible path over the next few days. Onward to the GOM according to models which will of course change. For whatever its worth I feel this will move more N and be a player in the GOM.

[Sanibel]

You're better off with the other TUTT dictionary explanation. It explains them in greater scientific detail. I learned that they are partially due to tropical heat subsidence of returning airflows from the northern hemisphere. A TUTT will be seen on satellite as a tongue of moving air cutting down into the tropics. It usually cuts a clear pattern with obvious moving shear into the area it is within.


What is important to know is that they are a Low up high in the atmosphere while hurricanes do best with strong High's up there.

[AHurricaneWatcherinMS]

Kat Daddy,
Where in the GOM do you think it will go?

[curtadams]

A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued.

I should bump your post, because I missed it. This is hard to keep up with... lol.

I think that's an error - the time was more than six hours ago (1800Z) , and both NHC and Navy have continued to call it an invest since.

[Trugunzn]

I have a bad feeling a bout dis storm

[KatDaddy]

Just a hunch AHurricaneWatcherinMS.......Central or W GOM

[cycloneye]

A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued.

I should bump your post, because I missed it. This is hard to keep up with... lol.

I think that's an error - the time was more than six hours ago (1800Z) , and both NHC and Navy have continued to call it an invest since.

This is ok because they issue the TCFA 24 hours prior to any upgrade to TD.

[AHurricaneWatcherinMS]

Kat Daddy,
What states and area

[fci]

Those plots don't look too good for Jamaica. If I lived there I'd be going over my hurricane plan right now and hoping this thing doesn't make it past a depression.

My prediction at this point: near-direct hit for them...

I would hope that anyone living in Jamaica is ALWAYS ready during Hurricane Season.

They seem to get lucky quite often with near misses but one of these days.....

[Stratosphere747]

It's an invest....Outside of the Caribbean!

[Trugunzn]

Can someone post the GFDL or we have to wait till later tonight to see the map?

[ronjon]

Here is the link for the 18Z GFDL run. It takes it to 102 kts at 120 near the isle of youth. With a 15% reduction factor, still 100 mph storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation