TORNADO WATCH ND/SD/IA/MN/WI

[chizniz16]

There are definitly some expectations lost in the latest SPC. However, the 12Z NAM and GFS don't look too bad at all. They look better than the 06Z models, so maybe things are looking a little better already than what SPC thought with their latest outlook. Still excited now.

[CrazyC83]

10% tornado now. Tornado Watch issued in Wisconsin.

[CrazyC83]

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR NORTHEAST IOWA
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHERN AND A SMALL PART OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF ROCHESTER
MINNESOTA TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ERN PART OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN WI
INTO W-CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL SHOWING SOME SWD PUSH WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO ITS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING AND INFLUX OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY ALLOW WARM SECTOR TO REMAIN
ANCHORED INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SRN WI. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER
MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE
WITHIN WARM SECTOR. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS
BECOME SURFACE BASED THROUGH THE EVENING...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.


...EVANS

[CrazyC83]

A prelude to Thursday?

273
WWCN13 CWWG 232028
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:28 PM CST WEDNESDAY 23 AUGUST 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...

TORNADO WATCH FOR:
=NEW= CARLYLE - OXBOW - CARNDUFF - BIENFAIT - STOUGHTON
=NEW= ESTEVAN - WEYBURN - RADVILLE - MILESTONE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVENING.
IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THEY
MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL..FLOODING RAIN..DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
POWERFUL WINDS. USE THIS TIME TO SECURE OUTDOOR PROPERTY AND
TO ENSURE FAMILY MEMBERS AND CO-WORKERS ARE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD THE SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE TORNADO
WARNINGS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR
WEATHERADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH OR IF YOU FEEL THREATENED DO NOT
WAIT FOR WARNINGS TO TAKE ACTION..TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

SHOULD YOU SPOT A FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO...
AND ONLY IF IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...YOU CAN CALL 1-800-239-0484
TO REPORT YOUR SIGHTING.
PLEASE NOTE THIS PHONE NUMBER IS FOR REPORTING SEVERE WEATHER
ONLY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS ENDED FOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UPGRADED TO TORNADO WATCH FOR:
CARLYLE - OXBOW - CARNDUFF - BIENFAIT - STOUGHTON
ESTEVAN - WEYBURN - RADVILLE - MILESTONE.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP OVER THIS
AREA THERE IS AMPLE WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.


PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/DK/JAS

[chizniz16]

FOR THURSDAY.

[Bunkertor]

Are there some news of the Cap´s ? I don´t have the current maps to look over...

[CrazyC83]

I don't know if the cap will even be a factor.

[Bunkertor]

Found a map ! Tomorrow looks much more favourable for svr. Cape 20 ???

What´s the matter today ?

By the way. Gemany has to count 3rd Tornado dead. Remagen, known for the Bridge, was struck yesterday...

<---- Just edited. That´s me, having a fresh blonde at Haifischbar (am. shark-in), Hamburg

[CrazyC83]

oh wow! Post that in Global Weather!

[CrazyC83]

The main line for tomorrow already has tornado watches out in Saskatchewan, and it is far from the most severe it will get...

[conestogo_flood]

What could this tornado watch in Saskatchewan mean for tomorrow, since the system will be over Minnesota...

BTW, for Environment Canada to issue a tornado watch... they must be thinking something good.

TORNADO WATCH FOR:
FORT QU'APPELLE - INDIAN HEAD - LUMSDEN - PILOT BUTTE
MOOSOMIN - GRENFELL - KIPLING - WAWOTA
CARLYLE - OXBOW - CARNDUFF - BIENFAIT - STOUGHTON
ESTEVAN - WEYBURN - RADVILLE - MILESTONE
YORKTON - MELVILLE - ESTERHAZY
HUMBOLDT - WYNYARD - WADENA - LANIGAN - FOAM LAKE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THEY MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES. CONDITIONS
ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE
HAIL..FLOODING RAIN..DEADLY LIGHTNING AND POWERFUL WINDS.
USE THIS TIME TO SECURE OUTDOOR PROPERTY AND TO ENSURE FAMILY
MEMBERS AND CO-WORKERS ARE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD THE
SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH. ENVIRONMENT CANADA CONTINUES TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR WEATHERADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH OR IF YOU FEEL THREATENED DO NOT
WAIT FOR WARNINGS TO TAKE ACTION..TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
SHOULD YOU SPOT A FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO...AND ONLY IF IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO...YOU CAN CALL 1-800-239-0484 TO REPORT YOUR
SIGHTING. PLEASE NOTE THIS PHONE NUMBER IS FOR REPORTING SEVERE
WEATHER ONLY.

[chizniz16]

O baby getting me pumped up for tonight, busy night of forecasting ahead...

[craptacular]

Well, we just got a tornado warning for NW Dane County (Madison area).

[dean]

yep, i will be watching it closely, till i have to go to work at 2 tomorrow. i'm definately bringing my video camera and digital camera to work tomorrow! this may finally be the day i get my first tornado watch of the summer.

[chizniz16]

The new NAM is out and it looks pretty good. SW Minnesota looks to be the main threat here, because as the area of storms moves east it will loose heating in the atmosphere as nightfal arrives, and will turn into more of a hail/wind threat. South West Minnesota into south central Minnesota looks to be very active starting as early as 6 or 7 PM.

[WindRunner]

FOR THURSDAY.

-clipped map-

chizniz16, can I ask you to stop leaving the NOAA logo and the text "Day X SPC outlook" on your maps? That may be fine for whatever you do with them elsewhere, but here it's against board rules. It also makes things confusing when your staring at maps with a tired mind, as it can appear to be an official map, which it isn't. Using the base map is fine, but try to avoid claiming it as a SPC map. Thanks

[chizniz16]

I didn't know it was against the rules. I just took it out. Thanks for the compliment.

[craptacular]

OK, our first tornado warning expired at 9:45, and two minutes later, here comes the next one. This one looks worse on radar and the storm-relative wind velocities... I'm outta here.

[chizniz16]

Where are you going?

[WindRunner]

I didn't know it was against the rules. I just took it out. Thanks for the compliment.

Yeah, they had a real problem with people making forecasts on the NHC's forecast maps last year, and so they had to make the rule. The new one looks great - and the numbers are probably better (more accurate) than the SPC's IMO. Of course, that's only if the convection today doesn't kill everything for tomorrow.

And it's west Madison that's under the TORs. Stay safe!