Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

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Trugunzn
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#321 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:02 pm

lets wait and see if it fizzles or not tonight
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Beam
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#322 Postby Beam » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:02 pm

rnbaida wrote:folks, this system will be a depression by 11am thursday and will be a storm by 11pm thursday. I just got off the phone with my brother who is a meteorologist, and he says that a cat 2-3 is in the picture for the gulf, he said that a landfall in texas to lousiana is very possible. If the GFDL is predicting a 110mph hurrricane then we are in some trouble.... any comments?


Not that I doubt you, but what is your brother's name/agency?
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Derek Ortt

#323 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:02 pm

its obvious that the upper anti-cyclone is building
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wxman57
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#324 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:02 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:I wonder if this will be TD 5 or TS Ernesto when I wake up tomorrow?

Probably not TS Ernesto.. but maybe TD 5?


I think it has TS winds already...


Many strong tropical waves have TS-force winds. It's the LLC they lack.

OK, time to go relax and take a break from the tropics.

Good night!
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#325 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:02 pm

Image
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#326 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:03 pm

I expect this bourd to really light up if this does become depression.
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#327 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:03 pm

rnbaida wrote:folks, this system will be a depression by 11am thursday and will be a storm by 11pm thursday. I just got off the phone with my brother who is a meteorologist, and he says that a cat 2-3 is in the picture for the gulf, he said that a landfall in texas to lousiana is very possible. If the GFDL is predicting a 110mph hurrricane then we are in some trouble.... any comments?


Please have your sources come and make a viable forecast here, or give some link to their professional site....
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#328 Postby rnbaida » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:03 pm

Trugunzn wrote:I expect this bourd to really light up if this does become depression.


we would average about 3- posts every 1 minute....
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#329 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:04 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:I wonder if this will be TD 5 or TS Ernesto when I wake up tomorrow?

Probably not TS Ernesto.. but maybe TD 5?


I think it has TS winds already...


Many strong tropical waves have TS-force winds. It's the LLC they lack.

OK, time to go relax and take a break from the tropics.

Good night!


Yeah I know. Just saying it could instantly become TS Ernesto when it gets the LLC.
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Dean4Storms
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#330 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:04 pm

hicksta wrote:How are you saying its an upper texas coast threat when the thing isnt even near the gulf


You must be talking too me?

The GFS for several runs brought this system in that direction and the GFDL in its latest run seems to show something similiar. Most of the models keep with the steering flow WNW at 500mb over the Gulf like it has been for the last month.


Besides, Ernesto even sounds Texan! :lol:

And even JB gets one right now and then! :lol:
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#331 Postby rnbaida » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:04 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
rnbaida wrote:folks, this system will be a depression by 11am thursday and will be a storm by 11pm thursday. I just got off the phone with my brother who is a meteorologist, and he says that a cat 2-3 is in the picture for the gulf, he said that a landfall in texas to lousiana is very possible. If the GFDL is predicting a 110mph hurrricane then we are in some trouble.... any comments?


Please have your sources come and make a viable forecast here, or give some link to their professional site....


sure ill give him a call on thursday and tell him to create a profile.
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Trugunzn
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#332 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:04 pm

I mean this bourd should really light up if we have major hurricane!
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all_we_know_is_FALLING
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#333 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:05 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:I wonder if this will be TD 5 or TS Ernesto when I wake up tomorrow?

Probably not TS Ernesto.. but maybe TD 5?


I think it has TS winds already...


Many strong tropical waves have TS-force winds. It's the LLC they lack.

OK, time to go relax and take a break from the tropics.

Good night!


Yeah I know. Just saying it could instantly become TS Ernesto when it gets the LLC.


That's interesting. We'll have to wait and see.
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#334 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:05 pm

rnbaida wrote:folks, this system will be a depression by 11am thursday and will be a storm by 11pm thursday. I just got off the phone with my brother who is a meteorologist, and he says that a cat 2-3 is in the picture for the gulf, he said that a landfall in texas to lousiana is very possible. If the GFDL is predicting a 110mph hurrricane then we are in some trouble.... any comments?

Holy Moly? :lol:

When all these models start showing this, it means something should happen at least. The GFDL hasn't been wrong for Ioke so watch out!
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Trugunzn
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#335 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:06 pm

Gfdl has been reall good ith intensity last couple years
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rnbaida

#336 Postby rnbaida » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:06 pm

I am thinking that the first advisory will be for a tropical storm instead of a depression...
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#337 Postby temujin » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:06 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
rnbaida wrote:folks, this system will be a depression by 11am thursday and will be a storm by 11pm thursday. I just got off the phone with my brother who is a meteorologist, and he says that a cat 2-3 is in the picture for the gulf, he said that a landfall in texas to lousiana is very possible. If the GFDL is predicting a 110mph hurrricane then we are in some trouble.... any comments?


I'm thinking Category 4 or 5 is possible out of this.



Yeah, Cat 4 or 5 is possible... in fact, I'm starting to feel it in my bones.

But discounting gut feelings and going with my brain... I'm going to say a Cat 2 or 3, with a possibility for more.
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#338 Postby MississippiHurricane » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:09 pm

OMG! I like to track hurricanes but ONLY FISH! PLEASE NO LANDFALL!!!!!! No one needs this. I will watch this with every ounce of free time i have. :eek: :eek:
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#339 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:11 pm

Misshurricane wrote:OMG! I like to track hurricanes but ONLY FISH! PLEASE NO LANDFALL!!!!!! No one needs this. I will watch this with every ounce of free time i have. :eek: :eek:


Sorry, but if it develops, there isn't alot of options unless it does one of these continously:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

and loops around about 20 times.....(we can only hope)
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#340 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:13 pm

If this enters the Caribbean, the chances of this being a fish are 1,000,000/1
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