Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[Air Force Met]

Its way to early to make a track forecast for the Gulf of this system. Look at the model trend. The ridge can be stronger or the trough could be stronger thats whats going to make the final track.

No, it is not way too early to make a forecast. We have to do it every day. If this were declared a depression tonight/tomorrow, we have to immediately make a track forecast. Now it IS to early to be very confident about a likely landfall point along the Gulf Coast.

Ain't that the truth...I was asked to make a forecast on it this morning by a room full of Colonels....including track...and when we are looking at landfall.

Generals and Colonels don't understand "I don't know..."

[Stratosphere747]

All this TX Talk again...Same thing happend with Chris...Where still trying to find him...

There are many of "us" Texans that do not come across this way...

It's a shame that a few transplanted Texans, seems to have lumped "us" into this sort of category...

[Rainband]

First time this year, the shear in the Caribbean is low. That's what one of our local met s just said.

[skysummit]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

[Rainband]

All this TX Talk again...Same thing happend with Chris...Where still trying to find him...

There are many of "us" Texans that do not come across this way...

It's a shame that a few transplanted Texans, seems to have lumped "us" into this sort of category...

Brother I can relate on the Florida camp as well.

[jlauderdal]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

isnt breck the guy that sounded the all clear with katrina?

[miamicanes177]

First time this year, the shear in the Caribbean is low. That's what one of our local met s just said.

there is a large area of 20-40kts of shear in the caribbean right now. However, this pocket of 5-10kts has been over 97L the whole time, and I believe it is supposed to remain in this 5-10kt zone. The western caribbean does indeed have very low shear.

[cycloneye]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

Really he said that? I saw Steve Lyons say that conditions will be very favorable when the system gets to the Western Caribbean.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

Really he said that? I saw Steve Lyons say that conditions will be very favorable when the system gets to the Western Caribbean.

Dr Lyons said it was going to hit South america last night too...LOL

[skysummit]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

Really he said that? I saw Steve Lyons say that conditions will be very favorable when the system gets to the Western Caribbean.

I didn't hear it personally, however, I did hear that from someone else who just watched the broadcast.

[Hurricaneman]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

Really he said that? I saw Steve Lyons say that conditions will be very favorable when the system gets to the Western Caribbean.

Dr Lyons said it was going to hit South america last night too...LOL

I dont think its going to hit South America, but just skim it

[SouthAlabamaWX]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

Yep. I thought he would have learned.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

Really he said that? I saw Steve Lyons say that conditions will be very favorable when the system gets to the Western Caribbean.

Dr Lyons said it was going to hit South america last night too...LOL

I dont think its going to hit South America, but just skim it

more Like skim it by 200 miles...

[abajan]

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

They dont have the words (If Necessary) at the TWO so they will fly tommorow afternoon.

Good point, cycloneye. I probably wouldn't have noticed that if you hadn't brought it to our attention.

Thanks.

[Stormcenter]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

He is actually correct based on the current forecast models. Now we all
that can change but that is the way it looks now.

[Downdraft]

folks, this system will be a depression by 11am thursday and will be a storm by 11pm thursday. I just got off the phone with my brother who is a meteorologist, and he says that a cat 2-3 is in the picture for the gulf, he said that a landfall in texas to lousiana is very possible. If the GFDL is predicting a 110mph hurrricane then we are in some trouble.... any comments?

I'm thinking Category 4 or 5 is possible out of this.

Yeah, Cat 4 or 5 is possible... in fact, I'm starting to feel it in my bones.

But discounting gut feelings and going with my brain... I'm going to say a Cat 2 or 3, with a possibility for more.

Good Lord People Get a Grip!!!!!!! It's not even a depression yet for the love of Pete. If you can't make a responsible post someone should boot you out of here. Even in here this stretches reality calling this a possible cat 4 or cat 5 days ahead of any reason to and without it even being a tropical cyclone yet. Posts like yours belong on the "other" website not on Storm2k.

[cycloneye]

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

They dont have the words (If Necessary) at the TWO so they will fly tommorow afternoon.

Good point, cycloneye. I probably wouldn't have noticed that if you hadn't brought it to our attention.

Thanks.

Hey my friend,dont forget to post the observations from that island as the system moves thru or close to Barbados.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif

0Z much further N...

[JonathanBelles]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

0Z much further N...

how do you figure?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey bro thats about 10 days out. If not more. So alot can change in that time.

A potential TX threat is probably more like 6-9 days out. We could very well be preparing for it this time next week if this is indeed heading our way. The models seem to want to have this all the way to the Yucatan channel by day 5. Hopefully though this one will play and Chris and not affect our area. I really am not in the mood for a major hurricane that blows over all the pine trees around me.