Hurricane Ioke thread

[JonathanBelles]

ioki wont make it to shaskan?

[WindRunner]

WTPA42 PHFO 240256
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 PM HST WED AUG 23 2006

CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM CPHC..AFWA AND JTWC WERE ALL 5.0 ON THE 130 PM HST FIXES. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A RAGGED...CLOUD-FILLED EYE. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KT. FINAL T-NUMBERS ON TWO OF THE FIXES HAD DROPPED TO 4.5 BUT IMAGERY RIGHT AFTER FIX TIME SHOWED THE T-NUMBER BACK UP TO 5.0 AS THE EYE BECAME BETTER DEFINED.

IOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...TOWARDS 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE DATELINE. THE DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE MODELS SHOW THE TRACK CONTINUING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST... THEN TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THIS TRACK SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE UPPER AIR FORECASTS. A LOW ALOFT NEAR 33N 171E WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN NORTHWEST. AN ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD NEAR 25N 175W AND PUSH IOKE WEST...THEN WEST SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION TO BETTER MATCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE LITTLE-CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNCHANGED AND LITTLE SHEAR...INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND IOKE WILL START WEAKENING...WITH SLOW WEAKENING CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.3N 171.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 18.8N 172.5W 90 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 19.4N 173.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 19.9N 174.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 20.0N 176.3W 90 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.6N 179.1W 85 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 18.2N 177.7E 75 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 17.5N 174.5E 65 KT


$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

And fact, what do you mean?

[JonathanBelles]

if it made it to the international date line it would become shaskan. but now it will not make it there?

[WindRunner]

if it made it to the international date line it would become shaskan. but now it will not make it there?

OK - actually, it has its best chances yet of making it there. See the forecast points at 96 and 120 hrs, and how the are labeled with 17X.X E?
That's in the WPAC.

[JonathanBelles]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

it does not make it there, or bearly at most.

[WindRunner]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/cp200602_5day.html

it does not make it there, or bearly at most.

No, it actually makes it there by a lot.

Wunderground has a bug in their software that doesn't account for passing across the date line . . . try this map, the official one:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphic ... rTrack.gif

[JonathanBelles]

why is there such a difference?

[WindRunner]

why is there such a difference?

Instead of plotting the points as 178E and 176E (or whatever the official forecast says), Wunderground automatically assumes that the numbers are degrees W, thus never allowing the possibility of plotting a point in the eastern hemisphere - the other side of the dateline.

[senorpepr]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/cp200602_5day.html

it does not make it there, or bearly at most.

No, it actually makes it there by a lot.

Wunderground has a bug in their software that doesn't account for passing across the date line . . . try this map, the official one:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphic ... rTrack.gif

OH NO!!! NOT AN OFFICIAL MAP!!!

[WxGuy1]

why is there such a difference?

Instead of plotting the points as 178E and 176E (or whatever the official forecast says), Wunderground automatically assumes that the numbers are degrees W, thus never allowing the possibility of plotting a point in the eastern hemisphere - the other side of the dateline.

LOL, the forecast track literally "bounces" off the dateline. It's almost as if there's a boundary condition problem in a model... But yes, the WUnderground script must be coded to assume all longitude is in degrees west.

[mike815]

OFFICIAL MAP? is it truely official its not official enough for me

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like its bombing again. Full red Cdo around a small pin hole eye. Would not be suprized if it was a cat4 again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/avn-l.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok after a closer look at the eye...I would say 105 knots....But when that eye clears 115 knots again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/avn-l.jpg

[Cyclenall]

Looks like its bombing again. Full red Cdo around a small pin hole eye. Would not be suprized if it was a cat4 again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/avn-l.jpg

That's exactly right. I came to post that but you already did. Need that eye to clear out.

[clfenwi]

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/artic ... br49p.html

Follow-up to the story I posted earlier... the people who took refuge on Johnston Island are fine and their ship weathered the storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow thats a strong ship to ride out a cat4 when it was passing by that island.

[wxmann_91]

Looks like its bombing again. Full red Cdo around a small pin hole eye. Would not be suprized if it was a cat4 again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/avn-l.jpg

I completely agree Matt. I would say high end Cat 3 attm and if this trend continues Cat 4 by morning.

FWIW GFDL makes this a sub-930 cane, as high as the waters allow, with 950 mb winds at 144 kt, in 5 days.

[Cyclenall]

FWIW GFDL makes this a sub-930 cane, as high as the waters allow, with 950 mb winds at 144 kt, in 5 days.

So what would that be in real strength by day 5?

[wxmann_91]

So what would that be in real strength by day 5?

I don't understand your question.

[Cyclenall]

So what would that be in real strength by day 5?

I don't understand your question.

I'm not sure if the knots is at the surface or at another level. It would be different winds at different levels. "950 mb winds" was thrown in there so I thought the GFDL is using that.