TORNADO WATCH ND/SD/IA/MN/WI

[dean]

ok, so my thinking tonight goes a little something like this:
Convection that was forecasted for Minnesota tonight ended up in Wisconsin, so any fears about that convection are cleared as any storms are already well out of here, and the residual cloud cover will be well gone before morning. My newest concern is the convection in western North Dakota. SPC put out an MD saying that thunderstorms may develop as the night progresses. Although i am not sure of this convection's storm direction, i'm worrrying that this might be what completely messes tomorrow up. If the storms do indeed fire and move southeast (or even east for that matter) the storms will likely not reach southern Minnesota till between 4-9 in the morning, which wouldn't be a problem, except the residual cloud cover would likely then hang around till late morning/early afternoon (depending on the time of the storms arrival). Also, any storms that do come through will likely zap alot of the energy out of the atmosphere, and will also mess up a good moisture return. So, like i said the convection that SPC was worried about messing up tomorrow will not affect the set up, however, the storms in North Dakota might be the new problem. Summary of good things:
1. Shear
2. Great instibility
3. Peak heating of the day
4. good moisture return
5. the warm front is forecasted to move through at the right time
Summary of potential problems
1. cap???
2. Convection in North Dakota
3. Residual cloud cover for too much of the day
4. A lot of the energy getting zapped out of the atmosphere if storms come through
5. Storms may disrupt the moisture return

This is just my assumption based on what is happening right now. What do you guys think about my summary?

[chizniz16]

I agree that the main problem will be the possibility of the SD convection reaching southern MN and throwing off the whole deal. But this is not inniment that these storms will make it this far east, not to mention this far south. Definitly something to keep an eye on ASAP as things are just starting to pop in SD. We may be able to figure this all out within the next 2 hours watching this area. Hopefully it will subside and get out of our path. Am watching now until new outlook comes out.

[WindRunner]

Looks about right . . . though problems 2-5 are all kind of connected, they are still going to be the make or break part of the situation. The cap might be an issue early on, but I think it'll break right as conditions become prime for our tornadic cells to develop, i.e. sometime in the evening, possibly even as late as 8 or 9pm CDT.


And is anyone watching this cell blow up on Milwaukee radar in NW Saulk Co? Last scan had 62.5 dBz sitting at 40kft, with the 0/-20C lines at about 12kft/21kft respectively! Be looking for some 2+" hail come out of NW to central Saulk County, possibly even 3" by Loganville and Leland (though those are pretty small towns).

[PurdueWx80]

i haven't posted in forever, but wanted to share this pic i took from my apartment tonight. these are mammatus from the first tornadic supercell of the evening (a few counties north of here...i'm in madison). it was an amazing sight that's not really captured so well in this image, but it works.

[dean]

it seems like the storms in ND are starting to die, which is a very good sign, and hopefully they dont redevelop. I agree Chizniz, it's not really an immediate threat for us right now with that convection in ND but it is definately something we need to watch.

[chizniz16]

DIE ND storms DIE!! Definitly weaking a little in that strongest cell, now on the lookout for cloud cover...

[WindRunner]

Beautiful shot, Purdue! The mammatus after a good storm is always so beautiful and so impossible to take a picture of! Must have been a great evening in person . . .

[chizniz16]

Hey Purdue, a lotta respect for your pro met status. How is Madison right now? It looks to be getting just pounded, havn't you been udner a tornado warning since like 8:30? so about 3 hours?

[craptacular]

This is ridiculous ... I'm about 10 miles west of Madison, and we just got tornado warning #3 ... my hometown has been listed on the path of each one.

[PurdueWx80]

yeah, the sirens keep going off, although madison proper hasn't actually been under any warnings yet. they've gone off 3 times so far - maybe again with that cell in sauk county? we've had a good inch of rain or so in the last 40 minutes. it's quite nice sitting by the window listening to it all. looks like a pretty stormy night actually - wouldn't be surprised if we see 3 or 4 inches of rain with all this training.

tomorrow looks like another busy day. we'll have to watch the cap closely - today it was a bit stronger than expected but things are firing up nicely now.

[craptacular]

i haven't posted in forever, but wanted to share this pic i took from my apartment tonight. these are mammatus from the first tornadic supercell of the evening (a few counties north of here...i'm in madison). it was an amazing sight that's not really captured so well in this image, but it works.

Yeah, we saw those earlier tonight as well ... pretty cool lookin'.

[craptacular]

yeah, the sirens keep going off, although madison proper hasn't actually been under any warnings yet. they've gone off 3 times so far - maybe again with that cell in sauk county? we've had a good inch of rain or so in the last 40 minutes. it's quite nice sitting by the window listening to it all. looks like a pretty stormy night actually - wouldn't be surprised if we see 3 or 4 inches of rain with all this training.

We've received very little rain here in Cross Plains ... I think the rain has primarily been just to our east. We could use it.

[chizniz16]

Hey Dean keep an eye on the Satilite in the NE South Dakota area, decent clouds in that area have developed in the last hour. I don't know of an infered satilite with animated frames. What do you think?

[WindRunner]

This one will probably have the best chance of doing some damage. Best chance of having a real tornado IMO, and definately some huge hail with it, a very minimum 1" hail for Madison assuming the storm doesn't evaporate . . . but luckily, not much lightning. You should get about a 20-30 minute break after the end of this one and the beginning of this one I'm talking about.

[craptacular]

You should get about a 20-30 minute break after the end of this one and the beginning of this one I'm talking about.

Hopefully the third time is not the charm for us ... at least for tornadoes ... bring on the rain.

[dean]

Hey Dean keep an eye on the Satilite in the NE South Dakota area, decent clouds in that area have developed in the last hour. I don't know of an infered satilite with animated frames. What do you think?

i'll take a look, i dont see any DBz returns on the Aberdeen radar yet. i'll take a look at IF.

[WindRunner]

Well, I wouldn't be surprised if a brief tornado/funnel cloud occured in rural SE Sauk county, as the volume presentation was beautiful for just one scan before it lifted up. Doesn't look like Madison will be getting too much from this one, as it is slightly more of a right mover than the previous storm. Looks like the area around Mount Horeb and Blue Mounds (if those places mean anything to anyone) might get the brunt of this one. Anyway, I'm going to bed now, as I have little doubt that tomorrow will be a long night as well.
OK, well maybe I have some more doubt than that, but the potential is certainly there.

EDIT: new scan in, looks like probable tornado just west of Black Earth. It'll be hard to see as it appears lightning is almost non-existent with this cell right now - less than 50 strikes in the last 20 minutes throughout the entire 15mi length of this storm.

[craptacular]

There is plenty of lightning. The sky is being lit up every few seconds. Black Earth is the next town west of me (about 4-5 miles), so I'm watching.

[WindRunner]

There is plenty of lightning. The sky is being lit up every few seconds. Black Earth is the next town west of me (about 4-5 miles), so I'm watching.

So you live near Cross Plains? Naah, you'll be fine. Heavy rain for another couple of minutes (if it isn't already lightening up) should be the end of you rain for now. And that "probable" tornado doesn't look like it was all that probable after all . . . though velocity still shows some decent gate-to-gate shear.

And yeah . . . it seems like the lightning networks never really pick up all the lightning that is seen in a storm . . . of course, you could also be getting some light from that cell on the other side of Madison.

[craptacular]

I'm in Cross Plains. The rain did just lessen, and it does look like the area of concern stayed west towards Mazomanie and down to Mt Horeb. The rain was nice though ... we missed most of it during the first two warnings, but got a good soaking this time.