TD Debby E Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #D

[Trugunzn]

nice deep convection blew over here center

[SouthFloridawx]

679
WHXX01 KWBC 240105
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY (AL042006) ON 20060824 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060824 0000 060824 1200 060825 0000 060825 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 33.9W 20.3N 36.3W 22.3N 38.6W 24.3N 40.7W
BAMM 18.4N 33.9W 20.5N 36.7W 22.3N 39.2W 24.0N 41.4W
A98E 18.4N 33.9W 20.1N 36.6W 21.8N 39.1W 23.6N 41.4W
LBAR 18.4N 33.9W 20.4N 36.5W 22.2N 39.1W 23.7N 41.7W
SHIP 40KTS 41KTS 42KTS 44KTS
DSHP 40KTS 41KTS 42KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060826 0000 060827 0000 060828 0000 060829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.1N 42.6W 29.1N 45.1W 32.4N 45.0W 35.5N 38.9W
BAMM 25.5N 43.4W 28.2N 46.5W 31.3N 47.5W 34.5N 44.1W
A98E 25.1N 43.9W 29.1N 47.9W 33.0N 49.0W 37.8N 40.6W
LBAR 25.2N 44.1W 27.9N 47.9W 31.0N 49.2W 34.3N 46.1W
SHIP 47KTS 53KTS 56KTS 58KTS
DSHP 47KTS 53KTS 56KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.4N LONCUR = 33.9W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 31.0W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 28.2W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 35NM RD34SE = 35NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$


446

[LAwxrgal]

Hmm..I see ships doesn't take her to cane strength...58 kts....

[StormScanWx]

I'd like to request that this thread have a Sticky like previous storms such as Alberto did.

[HURAKAN]

Debby The Fighter.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Convection has formed over the center again. Maybe an upgrade to 50 mph at 11 PM?

[AnnularCane]

She is a spunky girl!

[JonathanBelles]

i still think its 45 or 50

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With that new blow-up of convection- that red color looks rather
intense...though it is south of the center.
I think that the NHC will maintain the intensity of Debby at 45 mph
or upgrade it's intensity to 50 mph given the moderately intense
convective blow-up near and especially just south of the center.

[btangy]

There is not that much shear analyzed over Debby currently.

I think the source of the decay we saw today is the stability of the environment (particularly the boundary layer) as given by all the stratocumulus around Debby. This is what you see in the E Pacific, when the storms begin to enter cooler water and get their boundary layer support choked off. One tends to observe intermittent convection, which is the behavior Debby is currently showing. Don't be surprised if the convection again fades after the diurnal max.

[Jim Cantore]

Shes about to hit a wall of dry air it looks like.

[btangy]

Shes about to hit a wall of dry air it looks like.

Here's the latest preciptable water (PWAT) values from the NRL site over the tropical Atlantic:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/atla ... hr.ATL.jpg

Debby has a pretty substantial envelope of high PWATs. Unless shear substantially increases driving that dry air into the core, it's only a minor factor at this point. Back to the basics of hurricane intensity forecasting: SSTs!

https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/HPCk10.gif

Compare the map above with the current location of Debby.

[SouthFloridawx]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2006 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 18:56:24 N Lon : 34:59:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.6mb/ 49.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -49.7C Cloud Region Temp : -53.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.60 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 18:32:24 N Lon: 35:34:48 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Debby may not be a fish. Why because the Azores could get impacked!

[Thunder44]

Debby may not be a fish. Why because the Azores could get impacked!

It's likely to miss them well to the west too.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look what debby is doing right now nice blow up deep convection....With outflow coming out of all sides. 85h data shows the start of a eye curve bands forming.

I say 55 knots now.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2006 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 19:09:48 N Lon : 35:27:03 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -47.6C Cloud Region Temp : -51.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html


Yeah its starting to form a eye. Debby can see!

[O Town]

Still fighting.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

She has formed a southern eyewall it appears.