Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[Beam]

Thread One
Thread Two


Thread 2 is at 25 pages, so when it's finished, here you go.

[SouthFloridawx]

[clfenwi]

Putting a bunch of info and links in here, trying to cover some of the Frequently Asked Questions

First, the comment on the wave from the 2:05 AM TWD

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS
FORMED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 55W AND
57W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM ON THURSDAY.
RESIDENTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

- Recon takes off at 12 EDT tomorrow to arrive in the storm by 2 PM

- Most recent QUIKSCAT pass was just before 6 PM last night, there won't be another one close to the system before recon goes in

NRL Quiskscat image

High resolution QS image

- link to models :

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

[Beam]

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

Huh. What is GFDL smokin'?

[Thunder44]

Dvorak T-numbers are up to 1.5

24/0615 UTC 10.8N 57.4W T1.5/1.5 97L

Most recent QUIKSCAT pass was just before 6 PM last night, there won't be another one close to the system before recon goes in

There should be one in later this morning.

[clfenwi]

Dvorak T-numbers are up to 1.5

24/0615 UTC 10.8N 57.4W T1.5/1.5 97L

Most recent QUIKSCAT pass was just before 6 PM last night, there won't be another one close to the system before recon goes in

There should be one in later this morning.

According to the satellite pass log on the NRL page it will not be anywhere near the system... Closest point of approach of 1400 kilometers (which is why it's shaded).

[southerngale]

I know it's late, but the new post-eclipse IR image looks like a monkey sticking his tongue out.


AUG 24 06 06:15 UTC

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 240653
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060824 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060824 0600 060824 1800 060825 0600 060825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.7N 58.5W 11.8N 61.0W 12.1N 63.2W 12.6N 65.2W
BAMM 11.7N 58.5W 11.9N 61.5W 12.2N 64.0W 13.0N 66.2W
A98E 11.7N 58.5W 12.2N 61.9W 12.5N 65.1W 12.7N 67.9W
LBAR 11.7N 58.5W 12.0N 61.4W 12.3N 64.6W 12.6N 67.9W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060826 0600 060827 0600 060828 0600 060829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 67.0W 15.9N 70.9W 19.0N 75.2W 20.2N 78.6W
BAMM 13.7N 68.0W 16.0N 71.9W 18.4N 76.6W 20.2N 80.9W
A98E 13.2N 70.1W 14.8N 74.0W 17.1N 77.3W 19.3N 81.0W
LBAR 12.9N 71.1W 15.5N 76.5W 20.4N 83.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 89KTS
DSHP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 58.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 54.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 51.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ivan had a skull so at least its a nice thing this storm is doing.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

A little westward shift in th models this morning.

[ericinmia]

A little westward shift in th models this morning.

yeah except the gfdl putting a Cat2 in the bahamas... lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can now see a west wind now...The center looks to be around 11 north/57.5. Deep convection is right over it. It keeps developing stronger. I see the lower level clouds moving like this...We will see once we get a recon or it moves over the islands.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Thunder44]

Latest positon 18z models shows storm at 11.7N already and moving slight north of due west. This means it will probably stay far enough north of South America to perhaps develop a little more quickly than it would had if it didn't. I can see this easily becoming a TS in the Eastern Carribean.

[ericinmia]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.html

Fsu mm5 is thinking along the same lines as the gfdl... Lets see tomorrow how if these fall back, or if other models join in.

[Thunder44]

I can now see a west wind now...The center looks to be around 11 north/57.5. Deep convection is right over it. It keeps developing stronger. I see the lower level clouds moving like this...We will see once we get a recon or it moves over the islands.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

You can't really see a west wind on satellite imagery. But I do see more inflow on the south side.

This is getting close to Barbados now. Look at the ob there the next few hours for a wind shift, if there is a closed LLC:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/global/BR.html

[bostonseminole]

I can now see a west wind now...The center looks to be around 11 north/57.5. Deep convection is right over it. It keeps developing stronger. I see the lower level clouds moving like this...We will see once we get a recon or it moves over the islands.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

You can't really see a west wind on satellite imagery. But I do see more inflow on the south side.

This is getting close to Barbados now. Look at the ob there the next few hours for a wind shift, if there is a closed LLC:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/global/BR.html

shift to which direction? I saw this report of a shift

03:30 79.3 °F / 26.3 °C 73.3 °F / 22.9 °C 29.81in / 1009.4hPa East 8mph / 12.9km/h 16mph / 25.7km/h 82% 0.00in / 0.0mm
03:40 79.3 °F / 26.3 °C 73.3 °F / 22.9 °C 29.81in / 1009.4hPa North 11mph / 17.7km/h 16mph / 25.7km/h 82% 0.00in / 0.0mm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting. Now the next one should be northwest then west if its south of where the center will pass.

[bostonseminole]

still coming from the North

03:50 79.3 °F / 26.3 °C 73.3 °F / 22.9 °C 29.81in / 1009.4hPa NNE 6mph/ 9.7km/h 14mph / 22.5km/h 82% 0.00in / 0.0mm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Needs to get that east out of there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No wonder it has a east wind that ob is tooken at about 12 north?