Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[clfenwi]

Barbados is not ideally located for this exercise... because it's north of where the system is well north of where the system is going to pass all you are going to see in Barbados is a shift from a northeast wind to southeast wind. when the system passes to the south. You already know that's going to be the case by the QUIKSCAT.

Tobago has the potential to be more useful if it's wind sensor is up (the past three hours of obs have 000000 in the wind ob).

The "windshift" observed isn't from the system, which is still to the east of Barbados. Barbados is located at 59.5W and the initialized position of the models was 58.5W, and would have the system pass by at around 9Z... if the SSD's estimated position (57.4 W) is correct , however, it wouldn't pass Barbados until 13Z or so.


METAR TBPB 240800Z 09026KT 7000 FEW012CB BKN014 BKN300 28/25 Q1010 RMK CB+VCSH-SE

26 knots from due east reported at 8Z

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We should know when it starts passing through the islands in 6 to 8 hours.

[Thunder44]

Barbados is not ideally located for this exercise... because it's north of where the system is well north of where the system is going to pass all you are going to see in Barbados is a shift from a northeast wind to southeast wind. when the system passes to the south. You already know that's going to be the case by the QUIKSCAT.

Tobago has the potential to be more useful if it's wind sensor is up (the past three hours of obs have 000000 in the wind ob).

The "windshift" observed isn't from the system, which is still to the east of Barbados. Barbados is located at 59.5W and the initialized position of the models was 58.5W, and would have the system pass by at around 9Z... if the SSD's estimated position (57.4 W) is correct , however, it wouldn't pass Barbados until 13Z or so.


METAR TBPB 240800Z 09026KT 7000 FEW012CB BKN014 BKN300 28/25 Q1010 RMK CB+VCSH-SE

26 knots from due east reported at 8Z

True. You actually wouldn't be able to close of a LLC there but still be would be wind shift from NE to E to SE as the center moved to the south, if one exisited. Reporting east winds for the 3 straight hours or so, doesn't not inidicate that there is one.

[crown]

Winds in Barbados have remained predominantly from the east with a wind shift ENE earlier this morning. The gusts are stronger than one would normally get in Barbados. The Met Office here is reporting up to 30 mph wind speeds.

In Tobago the met office there is reporting calm conditions. with a wind shift ESE.

St Lucia, to the northwest of Barbados has been reporting the greatest windshifts all morning with wind speeds up to 21 mph from the NE and ENE.

There has been a 2 MB drop in pressure in Barbados, St Lucia, St Vincent, and Tobago in the last two hours.

I would therefore believe that given the representation on satellite and the fact that the 1010 MB low has formed near 11N that the centre of this system will pass very close to or over the south of Barbados later today -- unlike what the models are projecting.

I hope it has tonnes and tonnes of rain ... we badly need it here.

[clfenwi]

TBPB 240900Z 10028KT 7000 FEW012CB SCT014 27/24 Q1010 RMK CB+VCSH-E+DIST. S=

28 knots from 100°

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on August 24, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby...located over the far eastern Atlantic about 845
miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave approaching
the Windward Islands remains well-organized and heavy squalls are
beginning to spread over these islands. Since conditions appear to
be favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form
later today...interests in the Windward Islands and the
southeastern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this
system. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Friday.
$$
Forecaster Avila

[abajan]

The most significant thing about this morning is how dark it is outside. I awoke thinking it was around 3:30AM, only to discover it was way past 5:00AM!

It's a bit windier than normal but doesn't seem as windy here as they're reporting at our airport.

[caribepr]

Just curious...is something else spinning off of 97 (to the north) or is that just part of the whole system?

[Emmett_Brown]

The GFS is predicting quite a bit of shear to return to the central and western Carribean by 8pm friday. Could this put the lid on 97L?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

The culprit is another nasty ULL...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

Perhaps this is why the GFDL shows a more NW movement

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Good Morning all:

It appears to me that the consensus around here is that this will take a southern route into the Gulf, yes? However, what is everyones take on the outlaying GFDL and this[http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/invest97l/fcst/archive/06082400/4.html][/url]

[willjnewton]

does the gfdl still has a strong hurricane like it did last night of what mark sudduth was saying or does the gfdl dissipates the invest??

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 00z Gfdl takes it northwestward across Hati into the Bah as a cat2. In looking at this thing with the lower cloud field moving inward to a center. I would say theres a very good chance that we will have a topical storm today, If Not I will go outside in kill my own crow in eat it raw!

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Good Morning Will:

I hope you had a good night too!

I think the GFDL moves the storm Northward and develops a significant cyclone. If I read the map correctly, it forms into a 970mb low. That is a hurricane. I do not think the discussion, anymore, is if this will develops; But where will it go and how strong will 97L become.

[willjnewton]

can someone show me a link to gfdL of why they predict a category two hurricane still?

[HURAKAN]

The 00z Gfdl takes it northwestward across Hati into the Bah as a cat2. In looking at this thing with the lower cloud field moving inward to a center. I would say theres a very good chance that we will have a topical storm today, If Not I will go outside in kill my own crow in eat it raw!

Be careful of PETA!!!

[HURAKAN]

24/0615 UTC 10.8N 57.4W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Here yo go Will:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... 400/4.html

[TampaFl]

97L starting to show up on French Fuadeloupe/Martinique radar this morning. Currently not as impressive as satillite pics this morning but appears to becoming better organized on radar (note the what appears to be a center forming just sse of Barbados). Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Robert

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[HURAKAN]

By looking at the system I will say that the National Hurricane Center will wait for the RECON plane before any upgrade. By the way, will the plane depart from St. Croix or its normal base in Mississippi?

[Nimbus]

Looks like a pretty good wave, without a west wind report I doubt they will upgrade it though.

Trinidad should be on the south side of the track and with 8 hours or so to develop there may be a west wind by the time 97 blows through.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTPP.html