1993-2000
2001-2006
El nino developing??
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AussieMark
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Jim Hughes
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AussieMark wrote:here are some archives SOI graphs
1993-2000
2001-2006
Where did you get this data from? It does not seem to go along with my Long Paddock hard data. Although it is hard to tell which months are which. August is currently running about -15.0 so it can not be entirely up to data.
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AussieMark
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AussieMark
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the Above data in figures
1993
Jan (-8.2), Feb (-7.9), Mar (-8.5), Apr (-21.1), May (-8.2), Jun (-16.0), Jul (-10.8), Aug (-14.0), Sep (-7.6), Oct (-13.5), Nov (0.6), Dec (1.6)
1994
Jan (-1.6), Feb (0.6), Mar (-10.6), Apr (-22.8), May (-13.0), Jun (-10.4), Jul (-18.0), Aug (-17.2), Sep (-17.2), Oct (-14.1), Nov (-7.3), Dec (-11.6)
1995
Jan (-4.0), Feb (-2.7), Mar (3.5), Apr (-16.2), May (-9.0), Jun (-1.5), Jul (4.2), Aug (0.8), Sep (3.2), Oct (-1.3), Nov (1.3), Dec (-5.5)
1996
Jan (8.4), Feb (1.1), Mar (6.2), Apr (7.8), May (1.3), Jun (13.9), Jul (6.8), Aug (4.6), Sep (6.9), Oct (4.2), Nov (-0.1), Dec (7.2)
1997
Jan (4.1), Feb (13.3), Mar (-8.5), Apr (-16.2), May (-22.4), Jun (-24.1), Jul (-9.5), Aug (-19.8), Sep (-14.8), Oct (-17.8), Nov (-15.2), Dec (-9.1)
1998
Jan (-23.5), Feb (-19.2), Mar (-28.5), Apr (-24.4), May (0.5), Jun (9.9), Jul (14.6), Aug (9.8), Sep (11.1), Oct (10.9), Nov (12.5), Dec (13.3)
1999
Jan (15.6), Feb (8.6), Mar (8.9), Apr (18.5), May (1.3), Jun (1.0), Jul (4.8), Aug (2.1), Sep (-0.4), Oct (9.1), Nov (13.1), Dec (12.8)
2000
Jan (5.1), Feb (12.9), Mar (9.4), Apr (16.8), May (3.6), Jun (-5.5), Jul (-3.7), Aug (5.3), Sep (9.9), Oct (9.7), Nov (22.4), Dec (7.7)
2001
Jan (8.9), Feb (11.9), Mar (6.7), Apr (0.3), May (-9.0), Jun (1.8), Jul (-3.0), Aug (-8.9), Sep (1.4), Oct (-1.9), Nov (7.2), Dec (-9.1)
2002
Jan (2.7), Feb (7.7), Mar (-5.2), Apr (-3.8), May (-14.5), Jun (-6.3), Jul (-7.6), Aug (-14.6), Sep (-7.6), Oct (-7.4), Nov (-6.0), Dec (-10.6)
2003
Jan (-2.0), Feb (-7.4), Mar (-6.8), Apr (-5.5), May (-7.4), Jun (-12.0), Jul (2.9), Aug (-1.8), Sep (-2.2), Oct (-1.9), Nov (-3.4), Dec (9.8)
2004
Jan (-11.6), Feb (8.6), Mar (0.2), Apr (-15.4), May (13.1), Jun (-14.4), Jul (-6.9), Aug (-7.6), Sep (-2.8), Oct (-3.7), Nov (-9.3), Dec (-8.0)
2005
Jan (1.8), Feb (-29.1), Mar (0.2), Apr (-11.2), May (-14.5), Jun (2.6), Jul (0.9), Aug (-6.9), Sep (3.9), Oct (10.9), Nov (-2.7), Dec (0.6)
2006
Jan (12.7), Feb (0.1), Mar (13.8), Apr (15.2), May (-9.8), Jun (-5.5), Jul (-8.9)
1993
Jan (-8.2), Feb (-7.9), Mar (-8.5), Apr (-21.1), May (-8.2), Jun (-16.0), Jul (-10.8), Aug (-14.0), Sep (-7.6), Oct (-13.5), Nov (0.6), Dec (1.6)
1994
Jan (-1.6), Feb (0.6), Mar (-10.6), Apr (-22.8), May (-13.0), Jun (-10.4), Jul (-18.0), Aug (-17.2), Sep (-17.2), Oct (-14.1), Nov (-7.3), Dec (-11.6)
1995
Jan (-4.0), Feb (-2.7), Mar (3.5), Apr (-16.2), May (-9.0), Jun (-1.5), Jul (4.2), Aug (0.8), Sep (3.2), Oct (-1.3), Nov (1.3), Dec (-5.5)
1996
Jan (8.4), Feb (1.1), Mar (6.2), Apr (7.8), May (1.3), Jun (13.9), Jul (6.8), Aug (4.6), Sep (6.9), Oct (4.2), Nov (-0.1), Dec (7.2)
1997
Jan (4.1), Feb (13.3), Mar (-8.5), Apr (-16.2), May (-22.4), Jun (-24.1), Jul (-9.5), Aug (-19.8), Sep (-14.8), Oct (-17.8), Nov (-15.2), Dec (-9.1)
1998
Jan (-23.5), Feb (-19.2), Mar (-28.5), Apr (-24.4), May (0.5), Jun (9.9), Jul (14.6), Aug (9.8), Sep (11.1), Oct (10.9), Nov (12.5), Dec (13.3)
1999
Jan (15.6), Feb (8.6), Mar (8.9), Apr (18.5), May (1.3), Jun (1.0), Jul (4.8), Aug (2.1), Sep (-0.4), Oct (9.1), Nov (13.1), Dec (12.8)
2000
Jan (5.1), Feb (12.9), Mar (9.4), Apr (16.8), May (3.6), Jun (-5.5), Jul (-3.7), Aug (5.3), Sep (9.9), Oct (9.7), Nov (22.4), Dec (7.7)
2001
Jan (8.9), Feb (11.9), Mar (6.7), Apr (0.3), May (-9.0), Jun (1.8), Jul (-3.0), Aug (-8.9), Sep (1.4), Oct (-1.9), Nov (7.2), Dec (-9.1)
2002
Jan (2.7), Feb (7.7), Mar (-5.2), Apr (-3.8), May (-14.5), Jun (-6.3), Jul (-7.6), Aug (-14.6), Sep (-7.6), Oct (-7.4), Nov (-6.0), Dec (-10.6)
2003
Jan (-2.0), Feb (-7.4), Mar (-6.8), Apr (-5.5), May (-7.4), Jun (-12.0), Jul (2.9), Aug (-1.8), Sep (-2.2), Oct (-1.9), Nov (-3.4), Dec (9.8)
2004
Jan (-11.6), Feb (8.6), Mar (0.2), Apr (-15.4), May (13.1), Jun (-14.4), Jul (-6.9), Aug (-7.6), Sep (-2.8), Oct (-3.7), Nov (-9.3), Dec (-8.0)
2005
Jan (1.8), Feb (-29.1), Mar (0.2), Apr (-11.2), May (-14.5), Jun (2.6), Jul (0.9), Aug (-6.9), Sep (3.9), Oct (10.9), Nov (-2.7), Dec (0.6)
2006
Jan (12.7), Feb (0.1), Mar (13.8), Apr (15.2), May (-9.8), Jun (-5.5), Jul (-8.9)
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Jim Hughes
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AussieMark wrote:the BOM website
altho August is not implemented in it as AUgust is not finished yet
was trying to show how low it got during previous ENSO episodes
The strongest negative level reached so far, in the 90 day average, occurred a couple of days ago at -11.75
The strongest negative trend for the 90 average in 2002 was September 17th and it was -12.70
So we still have a little ways to go to top the 2002 mark. I do not think that we will reach this for a while though. At least not during this particular wave. I would expect some waning . OTOH , I would be very surprised if we do not eclipse this mark by late fall or early winter.
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AussieMark
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Weekly Tropical Climate Note
at 1718 CST Thursday 24 August 2006
El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update
The 30-day SOI remained steady at -16 this week, primarily a result of higher than average pressures at Darwin.
Positive values of the SOI during the past southern hemisphere summer peaked at +20 in mid-April. Since May the SOI has dropped to near one standard deviation below the long-term mean. The official monthly SOI for July was -9, and its 5-month running mean centred on May was +1.
Conditions are currently described as neutral ENSO. At present most available numerical and statistical models indicate neutral conditions will prevail into early 2007. However there are some signs indicating the possibility of a trend towards developing El Nino, including warm SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean, the recent formation of Hurricane Ioke in the Central Pacific and intensification of the equatorial westerly wind burst west of the dateline. A trend to El Nino at this time of year would be unusual given events generally begin to evolve by June.
See the Bureau's "ENSO Wrap-Up" at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ which includes links to a compilation of ENSO model predictions.
at 1718 CST Thursday 24 August 2006
El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update
The 30-day SOI remained steady at -16 this week, primarily a result of higher than average pressures at Darwin.
Positive values of the SOI during the past southern hemisphere summer peaked at +20 in mid-April. Since May the SOI has dropped to near one standard deviation below the long-term mean. The official monthly SOI for July was -9, and its 5-month running mean centred on May was +1.
Conditions are currently described as neutral ENSO. At present most available numerical and statistical models indicate neutral conditions will prevail into early 2007. However there are some signs indicating the possibility of a trend towards developing El Nino, including warm SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean, the recent formation of Hurricane Ioke in the Central Pacific and intensification of the equatorial westerly wind burst west of the dateline. A trend to El Nino at this time of year would be unusual given events generally begin to evolve by June.
See the Bureau's "ENSO Wrap-Up" at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ which includes links to a compilation of ENSO model predictions.
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AussieMark
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