TD Debby E Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #D

[tgenius]

She has formed a southern eyewall it appears.

It's a 45mph tropical storm, I highly doubt it's forming an eyewall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks at 85h link from Nrl if you don't believe it.

[Thunder44]

She has formed a southern eyewall it appears.

It's a 45mph tropical storm, I highly doubt it's forming an eyewall.

I agree. Convection around the center looks pretty meager at this point to be anything more than that:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So was vinces convection.

[senorpepr]

So was vinces convection.

Is this Vince?...

[Thunder44]

So was vinces convection.

Vince was over much cooler waters and more stable air in the North Atlantic. Makes sense that convection would not so deep since it didn't originate out the tropics.

[storms in NC]

The last few frames Debby is going to the west more. But will go back to WNW. I had to slow it down and zoom in and you can see. I know it is a fish. Does someone have a map of the ridges and curent flow?

[Thunder44]

Actually T-number is 2.0 and don't support TS strength:

24/1145 UTC 20.1N 36.6W T2.0/2.5 DEBBIE

[Aquawind]

Does someone have a map of the ridges and curent flow?

Pick your layer.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... winds.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

[cinlfla]

I don't know maybe its just me but Debby looks like she's dried out a little bit.

[Thunder44]

TPNT KGWC 241232
A. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY (FOUR)
B. 24/1131Z (69)
C. 20.1/3
D. 37.1/1
E. SIX/MET8
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS -24/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT
AND MET AGREE.

AODT: N/A
HAMILTON

[Air Force Met]

Looks at 85h link from Nrl if you don't believe it.

I looked at it...that's just decent spiral banding. It's not an eyewall.

[storms in NC]

Does someone have a map of the ridges and curent flow?

Pick your layer.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... winds.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

Thank you

[Thunder44]

055
WHXX01 KWBC 241259
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY (AL042006) ON 20060824 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060824 1200 060825 0000 060825 1200 060826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.0N 37.0W 21.5N 39.5W 23.1N 42.0W 24.8N 44.3W
BAMM 20.0N 37.0W 21.7N 39.6W 23.1N 42.0W 24.4N 44.2W
A98E 20.0N 37.0W 21.6N 40.0W 23.3N 42.8W 25.2N 45.2W
LBAR 20.0N 37.0W 21.7N 39.6W 23.2N 42.1W 24.7N 44.7W
SHIP 45KTS 47KTS 47KTS 49KTS
DSHP 45KTS 47KTS 47KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060826 1200 060827 1200 060828 1200 060829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.6N 46.6W 30.2N 50.5W 34.6N 49.2W 38.0N 35.3W
BAMM 25.7N 46.3W 28.5N 49.6W 31.4N 50.5W 34.6N 49.0W
A98E 27.0N 47.4W 31.5N 49.9W 35.5N 47.0W 38.9N 32.3W
LBAR 25.9N 47.0W 28.4N 49.9W 31.0N 50.2W 33.9N 47.9W
SHIP 50KTS 51KTS 51KTS 49KTS
DSHP 50KTS 51KTS 51KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 37.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 33.9W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$
45kts again

[Jim Hughes]

It's hard to believe that Debbie's intensity was actually bumped up. Just amazed.

[SouthFloridawx]

[LAwxrgal]

Yeah, that's pretty much a model consensus that Debby will recurve and not be a threat to any land masses.

[lester]

the XTRAP is on crack lol

[Brent]

the XTRAP is on crack lol

It is most of the time.

[SouthFloridawx]

the XTRAP is on crack lol

It is most of the time.

It's my favorite model... It's usually fairly accurate within 1-3 hours.