Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

I think your GFDL is lost . . .

[djones65]

You are right, the 06 UTC dissipates 97L immediately at its initialized position of 11.7N and 58.5 W

The 1115UTC visible image in my opinion shows the weak vortmax on the west edge of the convection almost exposed near 12.5N and 60.3W This system is very disorganized, but obviously producing quite strong winds in excess of 30-35 mph over many of the Windward islands as well as heavy rains. If this system continues moving this rapidly I wouldn't be totally surprised if recon was cancelled since the threat to the Lesser Antilles is diminishing (it will be in the open Caribbean by 1600 UTC) although southerly winds on the back side could still cause some isolated problems I guess.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

I think your GFDL is lost . . .

yeah, your right. Looks like the 6Z GFDL did in fact run.

[SWFLA_CANE]

800 discussion
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS
FORMED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN
58W AND 59W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL ARE FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER
TODAY. RESIDENTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SQUALLS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON.

[HURAKAN]

[Thatsmrhurricane]

I know models are ummm . . .

BUT, I have not seen this in awhile:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

Going to get good around here soon . . . That's my prediction.

[wxman57]

I see no evidence of an LLC - yet. GFDL appears lost, I agree. Models have tended to turn these sysetms way too far to the right all season, and I think that's what is happening here. Still think northern Mexico to central Texas coast is amost likely landfall point should it develop. I give it a 50-60% shot at developing.

[SCMedic]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

CMC is pretty bold..

[Thunder44]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

I think your GFDL is lost . . .

yeah, your right. Looks like the 6Z GFDL did in fact run.

No that's the probably the 0z run still there. This is the 6z run:

044
WHXX04 KWBC 241128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.4 58.5 280./18.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs doe's not move the tutt out as fast now. 70 west at 48-60 hours is the wall of shear. If this is going as fast as Djones says it is at 23 knots...I think he is right about that this has moved about 1.5/2 degrees over the last 6 hours. This thing is is starting to out run its support a little. This is normal for this season in the deep tropics so far. But yes I agree this thing should slow down.

If it slow down in fellows that tutt like Ioke,Ivan have then expect something out of this. If not in it doe's what chris did then bye bye!

[Thunder44]

QS pass just in, missed it.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

[Air Force Met]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

I think your GFDL is lost . . .

One thing you can see in that image: All the models are seeing the ridge sitting over Florida in one form or fashion. Notice all of them begin to curve back to the west towards the end...it's just a matter of how far north they go before they do it.

[Trugunzn]

cmc

[Air Force Met]

I see no evidence of an LLC - yet. GFDL appears lost, I agree. Models have tended to turn these sysetms way too far to the right all season, and I think that's what is happening here. Still think northern Mexico to central Texas coast is amost likely landfall point should it develop. I give it a 50-60% shot at developing.

Hey Chris...I'm TDY out to 5th Army HQ...sitting the SWO desk....

They think I'm jinx....Nothing all season and the day I show up...the lid starts to come off.

[cycloneye]

QS pass just in, missed it.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

That means recon will be the last word about any close circulation.Unless surface observations confirm west winds before recon arrives.

[Blown Away]

The Gfs doe's not move the tutt out as fast now. 70 west at 48-60 hours is the wall of shear. If this is going as fast as Djones says it is at 23 knots...I think he is right about that this has moved about 1.5/2 degrees over the last 6 hours. This thing is is starting to out run its support a little. This is normal for this season in the deep tropics so far. But yes I agree this thing should slow down.

If it slow down in fellows that tutt like Ioke,Ivan have then expect something out of this. If not in it doe's what chris did then bye bye!

8am said 15kt, that is slower than yesterday and certainly not 23kt.

[miamicanes177]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060824 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060824 1200 060825 0000 060825 1200 060826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 60.4W 12.2N 62.7W 12.7N 64.7W 13.3N 66.5W
BAMM 11.9N 60.4W 12.3N 63.2W 13.0N 65.7W 13.9N 67.6W
A98E 11.9N 60.4W 12.5N 64.0W 13.1N 67.1W 13.9N 69.7W
LBAR 11.9N 60.4W 12.3N 63.4W 12.8N 66.6W 13.0N 69.8W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 36KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060826 1200 060827 1200 060828 1200 060829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 68.3W 17.3N 72.1W 19.7N 75.8W 20.0N 79.1W
BAMM 14.9N 69.6W 17.4N 73.7W 19.4N 77.9W 20.4N 81.5W
A98E 15.1N 71.7W 18.0N 75.7W 20.8N 79.5W 23.0N 83.6W
LBAR 13.4N 73.0W 16.3N 78.0W 20.9N 82.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 78KTS 86KTS
DSHP 53KTS 68KTS 78KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 60.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 56.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 52.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[stormernie]

Well I got critize yesterday for stating that this was a open wave and that no development would happen for at least 24 hours. In reviewing it this morning this is still an open wave with no evidence of a LLC, there is a MLC located around 12.5 / 59.5 or just south of Barbados. If there is going to be development it will be here. However, before it can develop it needs to do two things:

1) Slow down moving to fast to close off circulation.
2) If you notice there seems to be a competeing burst south of the MLC and there may even be another one here although much weaker.

On the positive side for it, an Upper Level High is developing over the system that should enable it to slow down a little and start getting it's act together.

I see development down the road, but not at least till tonight or more likely on Friday.

As always your comments are welcome.

[bvigal]

If this system continues moving this rapidly I wouldn't be totally surprised if recon was cancelled since the threat to the Lesser Antilles is diminishing.

LOL! That's so true. Seems to me that for any help recon could be to the islands, they would have had to fly it yesterday. Any recon data today will be kind of a moot point for those already experiencing the weather.

[wxman57]

If this system continues moving this rapidly I wouldn't be totally surprised if recon was cancelled since the threat to the Lesser Antilles is diminishing.

LOL! That's so true. Seems to me that for any help recon could be to the islands, they would have had to fly it yesterday. Any recon data today will be kind of a moot point for those already experiencing the weather.

Just because it passes the islands of the eastern Caribbean doesn't mean it isn't an immediate concern to offshore operators in the Gulf of Mexico. There are very sensitive operations going on in the deepwater areas south of Louisiana that need 6 days to shut down in the event of a hurricane threat. They are already preparing a plan to evacuate and shut down. Any shut down of offshore operations will mean more money at the gas pump.