Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[Thunder44]

8am obs over some of the islands suggest that a LLC may be trying to close off now somewhere SW of Barbados.

Grenada reporting NE winds now:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/global/GD.html

Barbados reporting SE winds now:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/global/BR.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

Probably might be a TS by either the 5 PM or the 11 PM.

[cycloneye]

24/1145 UTC 12.1N 60.0W T1.0/1.5 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

[bvigal]

If this system continues moving this rapidly I wouldn't be totally surprised if recon was cancelled since the threat to the Lesser Antilles is diminishing.

LOL! That's so true. Seems to me that for any help recon could be to the islands, they would have had to fly it yesterday. Any recon data today will be kind of a moot point for those already experiencing the weather.

Just because it passes the islands of the eastern Caribbean doesn't mean it isn't an immediate concern to offshore operators in the Gulf of Mexico. There are very sensitive operations going on in the deepwater areas south of Louisiana that need 6 days to shut down in the event of a hurricane threat. They are already preparing a plan to evacuate and shut down. Any shut down of offshore operations will mean more money at the gas pump.

I was only referring to it's usefulness to the Windward Islands. If that was the reason for them flying it, the reason would be moot by noon today.

[WindRunner]

The Tobago ob really throw it off, Thunder44 . . . here's a little picture with those obs plotted - click to enlarge . . .

[StormWarning1]

If this system continues moving this rapidly I wouldn't be totally surprised if recon was cancelled since the threat to the Lesser Antilles is diminishing.

LOL! That's so true. Seems to me that for any help recon could be to the islands, they would have had to fly it yesterday. Any recon data today will be kind of a moot point for those already experiencing the weather.

Just because it passes the islands of the eastern Caribbean doesn't mean it isn't an immediate concern to offshore operators in the Gulf of Mexico. There are very sensitive operations going on in the deepwater areas south of Louisiana that need 6 days to shut down in the event of a hurricane threat. They are already preparing a plan to evacuate and shut down. Any shut down of offshore operations will mean more money at the gas pump.

And better profit margins for those that supply gas to the pumps.

[wxman57]

And better profit margins for those that supply gas to the pumps.

They're a big part of our economy. We want them to do very well, particularly since they pay a good part of my salary. Last time the oil industry was in a slump I got laid off (1984).

[gtalum]

And better profit margins for those that supply gas to the pumps.

Correction: more profit, but not better margins.

[bvigal]

Yikes! Can we get through this season without gas going up to $8/gallon?

[Air Force Met]

Yikes! Can we get through this season without gas going up to $8/gallon?

I bet we can.

Any takers?

[wxman57]

Here's a satellite witha surface plot. No evidence of an LLC:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby17.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

I see no evidence of an LLC - yet. GFDL appears lost, I agree. Models have tended to turn these sysetms way too far to the right all season, and I think that's what is happening here. Still think northern Mexico to central Texas coast is amost likely landfall point should
it develop. I give it a 50-60% shot at developing.

Hmm, isn't this a lower percentage than what you gave it yesterday wxman57? Man, if this one doesn't develop, then I WILL be extremely skeptical in regards to the remainder of this season, because something would be seriously wrong.

[Noles2006]

Gas has actually dropped in our area about 30 cents since the start of hurricane season... don't need no Ernesto to bring it back up!

[gatorcane]

Here's a satellite witha surface plot. No evidence of an LLC:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby17.gif

Yep and it certainly doesn't look as good as last night. Wonder if it will just be a strong wave going through the Caribbean and we'll have to wait until it gets out of the eastern caribbean graveyard.

[StormWarning1]

And better profit margins for those that supply gas to the pumps.

They're a big part of our economy. We want them to do very well, particularly since they pay a good part of my salary. Last time the oil industry was in a slump I got laid off (1984).

With demand at 85 million barrels per day and growing, I would say slumps are over.

[ConvergenceZone]

Here's a satellite witha surface plot. No evidence of an LLC:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby17.gif

Yep and it certainly doesn't look as good as last night. Wonder if it will just be a strong wave going through the Caribbean and we'll have to wait until it gets out of the eastern caribbean graveyard.

the story of this season...

[dwg71]

It doesnt look to be organizing - that is certain, but is it dissapating and going away for good? that's the real question. I said yesterday 30-40% of getting a name, I'll stick with that.

[miamicanes177]

Natural gas up 4% this morning on concerns over 97L.

[cycloneye]

As long it continues to move over 20 mph,it wont be a fast developer.I think developemt will wait until it reaches the Western Caribbean.

[Thunder44]

Here's a satellite witha surface plot. No evidence of an LLC:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby17.gif

Yep and it certainly doesn't look as good as last night. Wonder if it will just be a strong wave going through the Caribbean and we'll have to wait until it gets out of the eastern caribbean graveyard.

I think it has better chance to develop in the Eastern Carribean than the Central and Western Carribean as long as the ULL is there. I think some westerly shear is preventing thunderstorms on the north side from moving and forming over the MLC.