Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[ConvergenceZone]

I smell a big bust coming on 97L - just my feeling.

I smell another Chris but at least he got a name and was classified, 97L hasn't even gotten that. I don't think anyone should write this off just yet.

another Chris huh? well, you could be right. This season should be named, "The season of frustration"

How young are you? If nothing comes out of this and the rest of the season, it should be named "The season of celebration".

keep in mind, I'm not saying I want a hurricane out of this, just a depression or a storm...

[gatorcane]

things sure have changed dramatically over night

the upper high has not continued to develop and it looks like westerly shear has started to impact the system as el nino-like conditions reign over the Caribbean

This went from a sure thing to maybe the opposite. A TD could still form, but the chances seem MUCH less than 24 hours ago.

Thanks Derek. That was from last night. I don't think he has updated his blog today and I missed the morning weather updates on t.v. because I as taking the girls to school this morning. So maybe we will have a quiet Labor Day.

Yep thanks Derek for backing up my claims also - things have DRAMATICALLY changed with our invest - it has the been the story of this season...

[ConvergenceZone]

things sure have changed dramatically over night

the upper high has not continued to develop and it looks like westerly shear has started to impact the system as el nino-like conditions reign over the Caribbean

This went from a sure thing to maybe the opposite. A TD could still form, but the chances seem MUCH less than 24 hours ago.

When Derek talks I listen. He's been right on this season...Now I DO believe that this will probably be nothing.......

Hello September.

[Derek Ortt]

the upper high is over South America, producing very strong shear over the entire Caribbean

These models need to do a better job. Hezbollah has done a better job of disarming than the models have with upper wind forecasts this year

[Javlin]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Well it looks like it spit out a sm. vortice maybe;zoom in and look @12.5'N+61'W

[rockyman]

Early visible loop seems to show an almost-exposed LLC southwest of Barbados...on the western edge of the convection...so apparently western shear is taking its toll.

[cycloneye]

The low center is exposed to the west of convection near the Grenadine islands.

[miamicanes177]

things sure have changed dramatically over night

the upper high has not continued to develop and it looks like westerly shear has started to impact the system as el nino-like conditions reign over the Caribbean

This went from a sure thing to maybe the opposite. A TD could still form, but the chances seem MUCH less than 24 hours ago.

Yep thanks Derek for backing up my claims also - things have DRAMATICALLY changed with our invest - it has the been the story of this season...

wow you two need to slow it down just a little bit. I'm going to have to disagree with both of you and agree with the experts at the NHC. As Avila said this morning, "conditions appear favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form later today". I'm also going to agree with Dr. Jeff Masters that it has at least a 50/50 chance of surviving.

[gatorcane]

things sure have changed dramatically over night

the upper high has not continued to develop and it looks like westerly shear has started to impact the system as el nino-like conditions reign over the Caribbean

This went from a sure thing to maybe the opposite. A TD could still form, but the chances seem MUCH less than 24 hours ago.

When Derek talks I listen. He's been right on this season...Now I DO believe that this will probably be nothing.......

Hello September.

So the Eastern Caribbean graveyard is living up to its name

[Josephine96]

need the storms to wrap around that center..

[Sanibel]

You can see the surface spiral getting out ahead of the convection. It is threading between Grenada and St Vincent right now. Right over Mustique.

From the look of it it obviously has a west wind.

The disturbance has obviously encountered westerly shear.

[drezee]

We have WSW winds at Trinidad now!! 240deg at 7kts

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

[Josephine96]

Based on the 530 TWO.. Sounds like NHC still thinks #5/Ernesto could very well form today

[miamicanes177]

Based on the 530 TWO.. Sounds like NHC still thinks #5/Ernesto could very well form today

Yep, and I'm going to believe what they say. These people are the very best in the world. They have tools and knowledge that nobody else has. We need to listen to them.

[Derek Ortt]

that TWO was written at 5:30

and I also said this can still become a TD

offering a dissenting opinion the past 2 days were THE experts at HRD. They have been downplaying the system during the daily map discussions, leaving me on an island these past few days calling for development

[dwg71]

Based on the 530 TWO.. Sounds like NHC still thinks #5/Ernesto could very well form today

That was 4 1/2 hours ago, I don't believe you'll see them be as bullish at next TWO.

[Sanibel]

It is low-tracking more west than thought last night.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based on the 530 TWO.. Sounds like NHC still thinks #5/Ernesto could very well form today

not trying to argue with ya Josephine.. , but the TWO's have been very inacurrate this season. I would not go by anything they are saying right now. They have a record of doing a complete flip flops from one TWO to the other. I would be shocked if the next TWO doesn't say something like "development is not as likely" or "development will be slow to occur" or something less bullish...

It's not that we can't get a hurricane this month. We can't even get a strong tropical storm....

[Derek Ortt]

I hope this disorganization trend continues

I want to play golf on Saturday

I enjoy the week-ends off

[recmod]

You people are completely ridiculous. Last night everyone was carrying on about a Cat 4-5 developing, now everyone is totally writing this system off. I am so tired of reading page after page of hysterical shouts of doom followed by page after page of "this one is a goner for sure".

If we eliminated the drama and hype and just discussed actual meteorlogical conditions, these threads wouldn't be 70 pages long for "just an invest".

Just my two cents which I am sure will get about 5 pages of flaming for speaking my mind.

--Lou