Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[seaswing]

Yep, probably so!

[skysummit]

You people are completely ridiculous. Last night everyone was carrying on about a Cat 4-5 developing, now everyone is totally writing this system off. I am so tired of reading page after page of hysterical shouts of doom followed by page after page of "this one is a goner for sure".

If we eliminated the drama and hype and just discussed actual meteorlogical conditions, these threads wouldn't be 70 pages long for "just an invest".

Just my two cents which I am sure will get about 5 pages of flaming for speaking my mind.

--Lou

Nope....good post. Like you said, it's usually "major hurricane" or "development chances 0%" ...and it's usually by the same people!

[Derek Ortt]

last night the UH seemed to be building over the system, but this has stopped during the morning hours

SHIPS has 21KT of NW shear over the system right now. 21KT is not very condusive for anything developing. It does reduce the shear in 48-72 hours, but the question is how much will be left of the system by then

[dwg71]

You people are completely ridiculous. Last night everyone was carrying on about a Cat 4-5 developing, now everyone is totally writing this system off. I am so tired of reading page after page of hysterical shouts of doom followed by page after page of "this one is a goner for sure".

If we eliminated the drama and hype and just discussed actual meteorlogical conditions, these threads wouldn't be 70 pages long for "just an invest".

Just my two cents which I am sure will get about 5 pages of flaming for speaking my mind.

--Lou

Nope....good post. Like you said, it's usually "major hurricane" or "development chances 0%" ...and it's usually by the same people!

It was unusual because so many mets were so bullish on the system and that send the "major hurricane" group off the deep end.

[Mac]

last night the UH seemed to be building over the system, but this has stopped during the morning hours

SHIPS has 21KT of NW shear over the system right now. 21KT is not very condusive for anything developing. It does reduce the shear in 48-72 hours, but the question is how much will be left of the system by then

I'm not saying you're wrong, Derek. But how much confidence do you have in what ships is saying? It doesn't seem to me like ships has been all that reliable this season.

[skysummit]

Yea you're right dwg. Even hear in NOLA, one of the most conservative mets was even showing a hurricane between the Yuc and Cuba. He's usually VERY cautious of what he says.

Well...just as conditions changed so quickly over the past 6 - 12 hours, they can do so again so I won't write if off.

[Derek Ortt]

I have high confidence in the analysis position. The other times are the GFS shear along the BAMM forecast track.

I am thinking it is getting rid of the shear too quickly, as that is its historical tendency, plus, there are no indications of the shear ahead of the system abating at the present time

[ConvergenceZone]

You people are completely ridiculous. Last night everyone was carrying on about a Cat 4-5 developing, now everyone is totally writing this system off. I am so tired of reading page after page of hysterical shouts of doom followed by page after page of "this one is a goner for sure".

If we eliminated the drama and hype and just discussed actual meteorlogical conditions, these threads wouldn't be 70 pages long for "just an invest".

Just my two cents which I am sure will get about 5 pages of flaming for speaking my mind.

--Lou

actually, I don't feel bad about my bearish comments this morning, because you can check my posts. I was NOT one of the ones calling for a cat4-5. I didn't even say CAT1. I just kept my mouth shut, although I did say that yep, it looked like it would develop....

[SouthFloridawx]

Is that an LLC at 12.5 North and 61 West (apprx.). If it is... it appears its moving quickly out in front of the convection.



http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
Loop

It would appear that the Low level steering flow is moving faster than the mid level steering.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Shear is starting to decrease but, is it enough?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Looking at the 200mb analysis...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

It does appear an ULH is trying to form.

[cpdaman]

well as maxmayfield said " to be honest with you, we don't really know why some of these aren't developing"

maybe it is as easy as using HAARP to effect the local pressure systems and leverage there infuencial shear, i used to think this was so silly but with katrina last year and the embarrasement the gov't took and FEMA's unpreparedness for another disaster, maybe they decided to make modifying the weather a higher priority to save face first, lives second

sounds to crazy

[bbadon]

Although I agree the thunderstorms are not as numerous, as intense as yesterday, or as concentrated, the low levels appear from visible sattelite to be more established. IMO

[SouthFloridawx]

well as maxmayfield said " to be honest with you, we don't really know why some of these aren't developing"

maybe it is as easy as using HAARP to effect the local pressure systems and leverage there infuencial shear, i used to think this was so silly but with katrina last year and the embarrasement the gov't took and FEMA's unpreparedness for another disaster, maybe they decided to make modifying the weather a higher priority to save face first, lives second

Human interaction with the tropics could be much more deadly than if they just leave it alone. This is a fairly controversial statement you just made. Anyway you can back it up?

[Mac]

I have high confidence in the analysis position. The other times are the GFS shear along the BAMM forecast track.

I am thinking it is getting rid of the shear too quickly, as that is its historical tendency, plus, there are no indications of the shear ahead of the system abating at the present time

Thanks for the answer, Derek. I've been very frustrated by the forecasting problems most (if not ALL) of the models have had thus far this season. It just seems much worse than in the past couple of years. Do you attribute it to the models' inability to account for neutral and/or mild El Nino-like conditions, to the TUTT, or something else??? Why do they all seem so lame this year???

[Blown Away]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.html

Fsu mm5 is thinking along the same lines as the gfdl... Lets see tomorrow how if these fall back, or if other models join in.

I thought the latest GFDL dissipated 97L?

[miamicanes177]

Is that an LLC at 12.5 North and 61 West (apprx.). If it is... it appears its moving quickly out in front of the convection.

yep I've been looking at that the past few minutes and there is clearly circulation there.

[crown]

From Dr. Jeff Masters' blog: "If 97L can survive the next two days and separate from the South American coast--which it has at least a 50/50 chance of doing--I believe it will probably develop into a serious hurricane."
blog

He keeps talking about the South American coast but it is hundreds of miles away from that coast

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS is utterly useless when it comes to forecasting the upper levels unless the G-IV flies because it does not assimilate a lot of satellite data.

I'd look at anything not coming from NCEP for a good upper level forecast, since much of the GFS initialization is just the previous 6 hour forecast

[drezee]

This is one of the best zoomed in loops you can get for 97L right now...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... m_vis.html

[SouthFloridawx]

[ga_ben]

This wave is looking pretty rough this morning. Would they cancel the recon mission if this thing were to continue to show signs of disorganization?