Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

crown · #181 Postby **crown** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:32 am

It's raining cats and dogs in Barbados and am loving it!!!!!!!!!!!

#182 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:34 am

Officially recon will fly.

#183 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:34 am

Convection starting to fire to the north.

#184 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:34 am

crown wrote:It's raining cats and dogs in Barbados and am loving it!!!!!!!!!!!

Maybe you should try to seperate them as they're coming down so they don't get into fights.

stormernie · #185 Postby **stormernie** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:37 am

folks, this is the beginning of the LLC, this was not there before and as such it's not outrunning the convention. What we need to see as the day progresses will thunderstorms start wraping aroun this LLC, or will the LLC be pull back or will it open up. These questions will be answer as the day progresses, right now it seems to be generating thunderstorms to the north. I mentioned earlier that the southern part was competing with the northern part if this competition stops and we see the northern part take over then we will see progressive development if not then this will dissapate as other systems have in the past.

Derek Ortt · #186 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:39 am

this system is probably technically a TD now

but it should not develop very quick, if at all during the next 2-3 days

now, if that low in the WC gets out of the way, all bets are off

#187 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:39 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I hope this disorganization trend continues

I want to play golf on Saturday

I enjoy the week-ends off

Yeah...I'm supposed to go home on Saturday from my TDY. If this develops...that looks unlikely.

#188 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:39 am

stormernie wrote:folks, this is the beginning of the LLC, this was not there before and as such it's not outrunning the convention. What we need to see as the day progresses will thunderstorms start wraping aroun this LLC, or will the LLC be pull back or will it open up. These questions will be answer as the day progresses, right now it seems to be generating thunderstorms to the north. I mentioned earlier that the southern part was competing with the northern part if this competition stops and we see the northern part take over then we will see progressive development if not then this will dissapate as other systems have in the past.

What is that in front of the convection? An Eddy or something?

#189 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:40 am

Derek Ortt wrote:last night the UH seemed to be building over the system, but this has stopped during the morning hours

SHIPS has 21KT of NW shear over the system right now. 21KT is not very condusive for anything developing. It does reduce the shear in 48-72 hours, but the question is how much will be left of the system by then

Who's your daddy...

:lol:

miamicanes177 · #190 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:40 am

stormernie wrote:What we need to see as the day progresses will thunderstorms start wraping aroun this LLC

in the last image convection is forming to the north of the LLC. Certainly this is not dead like some here have been saying the past hour.

miamicanes177 · #191 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:41 am

Derek Ortt wrote:this system is probably technically a TD now

I'm not trying to be rude, but how do you change you tune so fast within minutes?

#192 Postby **abajan** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:41 am

Most of the morning has been basically overcast with some light drizzle at times mixed with some dust haze and somewhat gusty winds on occassion.

However, we just had an intense cloudburst lasting about 20 minutes, accompanied by more intense winds, but it's beginning to lighten up again and the winds are also abating.

During the shower, the wind direction was clearly from the SSE, so I knew that the center of 97L had already passed.

#193 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:42 am

Derek doesn't the low look to still be imbeded in a wave axis. You can clearly see the inverted V shape on that close up sat pic.

Derek Ortt · #194 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:44 am

since when am I changing my tune

All morning I said this could still develop into a TD, but dont expect more for a while

just ebcause you dont get your major cane out of this is no reason to attack the mets

ConvergenceZone · #195 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:46 am

miamicanes177 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:this system is probably technically a TD now
I'm not trying to be rude, but how do you change you tune so fast within minutes?

Derek didn't say it wouldn't develop at all, just probably not past the depresson stage at least for 2 to 3 days. I think that's all he's saying...

I'm still not convinced they will classify this as a depression though with this much shear over the system, as it doesn't look good right now. It doesn't look like a depression to me, but I'm not MET.

duris · #196 Postby **duris** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:46 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I hope this disorganization trend continues

I want to play golf on Saturday

I enjoy the week-ends off

You should go see the folks in Pensacola and play a few rounds in Destin. I left about two dozen golf balls there for you a couple of weeks ago. Just bring scuba gear, hedge clippers, etc., and you'll find them.

#197 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:46 am

miamicanes177 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:this system is probably technically a TD now
I'm not trying to be rude, but how do you change you tune so fast within minutes?

I don't mean to answer for Derek, but what I see is this morning we didn't have evidence of a closed low....now we do with winds being reported from the west and wsw on the southern end. Therefore, this is likely a TD...just with hardly any convection.

#198 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:47 am

skysummit wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:this system is probably technically a TD now
I'm not trying to be rude, but how do you change you tune so fast within minutes?

I don't mean to answer for Derek, but what I see is this morning we didn't have evidence of a closed low....now we do with winds being reported from the west and wsw on the southern end. Therefore, this is likely a TD...just with hardly any convection.

How about a wave with an associated Low? There is nothing more than that I think. They'll need to find winds of 30-35mph sustainted. I doubt it.

#199 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:47 am

Derek Ortt wrote:since when am I changing my tune

All morning I said this could still develop into a TD, but dont expect more for a while

just ebcause you dont get your major cane out of this is no reason to attack the mets

Actually...it's all our fault.

We are all in a large room...holding hands and chanting....

"FALL APART.....FALL APART...."

"OPEN WAVE....OPEN WAVE...."

"WE DON'T WANT TO WORK THIS WEEKEND..."

duris · #200 Postby **duris** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:49 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:since when am I changing my tune

All morning I said this could still develop into a TD, but dont expect more for a while

just ebcause you dont get your major cane out of this is no reason to attack the mets

Actually...it's all our fault.

We are all in a large room...holding hands and chanting....

"FALL APART.....FALL APART...."

"OPEN WAVE....OPEN WAVE...."

"WE DON'T WANT TO WORK THIS WEEKEND..."

And you couldn't do that this time last year?!

Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

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