Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[Mac]

Ok, I think I need a break from looking at the loop's, but it appears the convection is wrapping on the N and NW side, assuming the center is near 12/60.5.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Looks that way to me too. I'm wondering how much its close interaction with S. America is hindering it somewhat right now.

[fci]

since when am I changing my tune

All morning I said this could still develop into a TD, but dont expect more for a while

just ebcause you dont get your major cane out of this is no reason to attack the mets

Actually...it's all our fault.

We are all in a large room...holding hands and chanting....

"FALL APART.....FALL APART...."

"OPEN WAVE....OPEN WAVE...."

"WE DON'T WANT TO WORK THIS WEEKEND..."

Now THAT is an example of "-removed-"
The RIGHT kind!!!

[x-y-no]

Ok, I think I need a break from looking at the loop's, but it appears the convection is wrapping on the N and NW side, assuming the center is near 12/60.5.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Looks that way to me too. I'm wondering how much its close interaction with S. America is hindering it somewhat right now.

Way back when they used to call that area "the graveyard of storms" but I think that phenomenon was somewhat overrated.

[wxman57]

Actually...it's all our fault.

We are all in a large room...holding hands and chanting....

"FALL APART.....FALL APART...."

"OPEN WAVE....OPEN WAVE...."

"WE DON'T WANT TO WORK THIS WEEKEND..."

You can let go of my hand now, AFM. I feel fortunate to have had so many weekends off so far this season. I don't think I'll have too many days off for the next month. But MAYBE, just MAYBE, this weekend might be salvaged.

I've lowered my estimate of development potential to 40-50% now. That's still a good chance. I do think shear will drop off in the next 12-24 hours. Recon probably won't find enough out there to upgrage it. If they didn't upgrade the depression off the coast of S. Carolina last week, they won't upgrade this one. Besides, the LLC now appears to be weakening.

[bvigal]

How about a wave with an associated Low? There is nothing more than that I think. They'll need to find winds of 30-35mph sustainted. I doubt it.

The winds are a given, see airport data, below. It's the closed circulation/west winds we're lacking.
St. Lucia
10 AM (14) Aug 24 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 33
9 AM (13) Aug 24 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) ENE 30
Barbados
10 AM (14) Aug 24 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ESE 29 heavy rain
9 AM (13) Aug 24 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) SE 26 light rain
8 AM (12) Aug 24 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) SE 28 light rain showers
7 AM (11) Aug 24 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) ESE 28 showers in the vicinity
Grenada has mountains blocking wind from E and NE at their airport, which never shows winds that one would expect based upon conditions nearby. So it's not the best airport to determine strength of storms or wind directions.
10 AM (14) Aug 24 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.85 (1011) Variable 3
9 AM (13) Aug 24 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) ENE 6
8 AM (12) Aug 24 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) NE 8

Trinidad the closest to westerly winds, but (a.) they are light, and don't know the terrain, so may not be indicative of a low and (b.) thunderstorms in area may effect the winds (c.) pretty far away from 97L's circulation center. Can our Bajan friends here please tell us some more about the usual patterns at Trinidad's airport?

[Mac]

Ok, I think I need a break from looking at the loop's, but it appears the convection is wrapping on the N and NW side, assuming the center is near 12/60.5.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Looks that way to me too. I'm wondering how much its close interaction with S. America is hindering it somewhat right now.

Way back when they used to call that area "the graveyard of storms" but I think that phenomenon was somewhat overrated.

Well, I'm not suggesting that S. America is going to kill this storm. But it seems to me that the convection on the south side of the storm must be hindered in development somewhat by the dry air being encountered over land. Just my two cents.

[SouthFloridawx]

Did the 1030am become the 1100am TWO....?

It has always been 1130 AM TWO.

wow ... ::Slaps self::

[ConvergenceZone]

since when am I changing my tune

All morning I said this could still develop into a TD, but dont expect more for a while

just ebcause you dont get your major cane out of this is no reason to attack the mets

Actually...it's all our fault.

We are all in a large room...holding hands and chanting....

"FALL APART.....FALL APART...."


"OPEN WAVE....OPEN WAVE...."

"WE DON'T WANT TO WORK THIS WEEKEND..."

actually, if hurricane season is the only time of the year you have to work weekends, it probably isn't too bad. As a software engineer, I have to work at least 1 weekend a month, sometimes 2, and you are right, it stinks!

[wxman57]

Way back when they used to call that area "the graveyard of storms" but I think that phenomenon was somewhat overrated.

Ever wonder why that area tends to be a TC graveyard? Think about where it is. It's just about due south of the Bermuda high, where the pressure gradient is tightest and the strongest trade winds reside. Systems moving iinto the islands into the eastenr Caribbean are typically accelerating. This prevents convergence and leads to weakening. By the time the disturbance gets to the westen Caribbean, it's rounding the Bermuda high, the gradient is slacking off, the disturbance slows down considerably, and convergence aids in development.

[Wx_Warrior]

We need Elaine Benes from Seinfeld to do one of her dances!!!

[mike815]

well im not makin up that statement and that observation

[curtadams]

Mike815, IMO it's highly likely they will find a depression...I don't see a TS coming out of this yet. The forming LLC is exposed.
I took a pic posted on a previous page and drew (albeit an awful drawing) of where I THINK the LLC is, and it's a good ways west of most of the convection. Shear is possibly to blame here, as well as possibly the continued fast forward motion of the wave.

If you look at the SAL map you can see that 97L has moved the SAL that was north of it yesterday to in front of it today:

So I think 97L put the dry air in front of it and then moved underneath. Shear probably contributed but it's not driving the current disconnect - strong shear causes convection to look like cones as outflow streams downwind and we're not seeing that.

[Brent]

Did the 1030am become the 1100am TWO....?

It has always been 1130 AM TWO.

wow ... ::Slaps self::

The one in the evening is the 10:30pm TWO. Easy to get confused I guess...

[bvigal]

Whoops! I mentioned Trinidad, but didn't post the data. Sorry. While composing one post, the thread grew by 2 pages. Too fast for this old timer!

10 AM (14) Aug 24 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) SSW 14
9 AM (13) Aug 24 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) WSW 8 light rain
8 AM (12) Aug 24 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) SSW 8 light rain showers
7 AM (11) Aug 24 73 (23) 69 (21) 29.85 (1011) S 6 light rain with thunder

Crown, Abajan, can you tell us about the usual patterns at Trinidad's airport? Terrain as effects prevailing wind direction when winds are light?

Also question for you promets. Is that swirl SW of the initialized position the actual surface low? Or just a vortex?

[Brent]

11:30am TWO:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
ACCOMPANIED BY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAINS IN
SQUALLS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
THE WAVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE WAVE BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

[brunota2003]

my dad works monday thru saturday every week...so yea, it does stink...

[Thunder44]

Grenada now reporting SW winds 6mph:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/global/GD.html

[miamicanes177]

if their getting sustained winds of 40mph then all they need to find is a closed LLC and it will be a tropical storm.

[skysummit]

Well.....despite what the shear is doing to it, the NHC seems pretty confident it'll either to TD or TS status within the next 24 hours so we'll see!

[cajungal]

Remember Bill of 2003, I believe? I woke up one morning and boom it was a tropical storm! Was classified right away and the center passed right over us. Things quickly change. It's center is currently exposed if only the convection could wrap around the center. Otherwise this thing that was so hyped up yesterday may be another Chris or Earl. Everyone remember Earl the pearl that went poof, goodbye.