Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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cycloneye
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#301 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:52 am

SXXX50 KNHC 241547
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 06 KNHC
1539. 1537N 06338W 05791 0351 069 016 075 273 016 06160 0000000000
1540 1535N 06337W 05791 0352 076 016 075 273 016 06160 0000000000
1540. 1532N 06336W 05791 0351 074 016 075 271 016 06159 0000000000
1541 1530N 06335W 05791 0351 075 016 073 273 016 06158 0000000000
1541. 1528N 06334W 05791 0352 078 017 075 271 018 06161 0000000000
1542 1525N 06332W 05791 0351 077 018 071 273 018 06159 0000000000
1542. 1523N 06331W 05792 0350 075 018 071 277 018 06159 0000000000
1543 1520N 06330W 05791 0350 075 018 071 275 019 06158 0000000000
1543. 1518N 06329W 05792 0349 072 019 071 277 020 06158 0000000000
1544 1515N 06328W 05791 0349 072 019 071 277 020 06157 0000000000
1544. 1513N 06326W 05792 0348 072 019 067 289 020 06157 0000000000
1545 1511N 06325W 05791 0348 073 020 067 297 020 06156 0000000000
1545. 1508N 06324W 05791 0348 074 021 069 283 022 06155 0000000000
1546 1506N 06323W 05792 0349 074 022 069 285 022 06158 0000000000
1546. 1503N 06322W 05791 0348 074 022 071 289 022 06156 0000000000
1547 1501N 06321W 05791 0349 075 022 067 293 022 06157 0000000000
1547. 1459N 06319W 05791 0347 077 022 065 309 022 06156 0000000000
1548 1456N 06318W 05791 0348 078 022 065 313 022 06156 0000000000
1548. 1454N 06317W 05792 0349 075 021 067 305 021 06158 0000000000
1549 1451N 06316W 05792 0351 073 021 067 299 022 06159 0000000000
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x-y-no
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#302 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:57 am

I'm so bummed ... have to leave the office for a client site ... I'll be offline for a couple of hours at least. :cry:


EDIT: Absolutely nothing interesting is allowed to happen while I'm away. :lol:
Last edited by x-y-no on Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#303 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:59 am

I don't think the shear is the problem. The 20 -30knts shear is more north. Right now I think it is the SAL that is ahead of it. When the dust clears maybe some organization:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html
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#304 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:00 am

267
URNT11 KNHC 241554
97779 15524 50146 63100 57900 07018 56841 /4591
RMK AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 02
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#305 Postby dizzyfish » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:02 am

008
SXXX50 KNHC 241556
AF304 WXWXA 06082415304 HDOB 01 KNHC
1548. 3024N 08855W 00000 5007 360 000 362 230 000 00000 0000000000
1549 3024N 08855W 00000 5006 360 000 382 230 000 00000 0000000000
1549. 3024N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 318 228 000 00000 0000000000
1550 3024N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 296 226 000 00000 0000000000
1550. 3024N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 292 224 000 00000 0000000000
1551 3024N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 300 228 000 00000 0000000000
1551. 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 302 230 000 00000 0000000000
1552 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 298 228 000 00000 0000000000
1552. 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 300 230 000 00001 0000000000
1553 3025N 08855W 00000 5003 360 000 300 234 000 00000 0000000000
1553. 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 308 236 000 00001 0000000000
1554 3025N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 318 240 000 00000 0000000000
1554. 3025N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 314 240 000 00000 0000000000
1555 3025N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 298 236 000 00000 0000000000
1555. 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 296 236 000 00000 0000000000
1556 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 302 240 000 00000 0000000000
1556. 3025N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 304 238 000 00000 0000000000
1557 3025N 08855W 00000 5007 360 000 312 238 000 00000 0000000000
1557. 3025N 08855W 00000 5006 254 000 296 228 001 00000 0000000000
1558 3025N 08855W 00014 5007 304 007 278 232 007 00018 0000000000
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#306 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:02 am

Anyone has the google graphics that are very good to see where the plane is? :)
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#307 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:02 am

cycloneye wrote:Anyone has the google graphics that are very good to see where the plane is? :)


I'm working on it right now. Give me moment.
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#308 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:03 am

dizzyfish wrote:008
SXXX50 KNHC 241556
AF304 WXWXA 06082415304 HDOB 01 KNHC
1548. 3024N 08855W 00000 5007 360 000 362 230 000 00000 0000000000
1549 3024N 08855W 00000 5006 360 000 382 230 000 00000 0000000000
1549. 3024N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 318 228 000 00000 0000000000
1550 3024N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 296 226 000 00000 0000000000
1550. 3024N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 292 224 000 00000 0000000000
1551 3024N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 300 228 000 00000 0000000000
1551. 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 302 230 000 00000 0000000000
1552 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 298 228 000 00000 0000000000
1552. 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 300 230 000 00001 0000000000
1553 3025N 08855W 00000 5003 360 000 300 234 000 00000 0000000000
1553. 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 308 236 000 00001 0000000000
1554 3025N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 318 240 000 00000 0000000000
1554. 3025N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 314 240 000 00000 0000000000
1555 3025N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 298 236 000 00000 0000000000
1555. 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 296 236 000 00000 0000000000
1556 3025N 08855W 00000 5004 360 000 302 240 000 00000 0000000000
1556. 3025N 08855W 00000 5005 360 000 304 238 000 00000 0000000000
1557 3025N 08855W 00000 5007 360 000 312 238 000 00000 0000000000
1557. 3025N 08855W 00000 5006 254 000 296 228 001 00000 0000000000
1558 3025N 08855W 00014 5007 304 007 278 232 007 00018 0000000000
'

That is not the one as is a test at GOM. :)
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#309 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:04 am

SXXX50 KNHC 241557
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 07 KNHC
1549. 1449N 06315W 05791 0350 068 022 069 301 022 06158 0000000000
1550 1447N 06313W 05792 0351 068 020 065 315 020 06160 0000000000
1550. 1444N 06312W 05792 0350 068 018 065 327 019 06159 0000000000
1551 1442N 06311W 05791 0350 069 019 067 329 022 06158 0000000000
1551. 1439N 06310W 05790 0349 069 022 071 305 023 06156 0000000000
1552 1437N 06309W 05792 0348 067 018 065 311 019 06157 0000000000
1552. 1435N 06307W 05792 0349 070 018 061 331 018 06158 0000000000
1553 1432N 06306W 05791 0348 066 018 061 339 018 06156 0000000000
1553. 1430N 06305W 05792 0349 067 020 061 337 020 06159 0000000000
1554 1427N 06304W 05791 0348 063 018 061 335 019 06156 0000000000
1554. 1425N 06302W 05792 0349 059 019 063 331 020 06158 0000000000
1555 1422N 06301W 05791 0348 058 018 061 327 019 06157 0000000000
1555. 1420N 06300W 05791 0348 056 019 061 335 019 06157 0000000000
1556 1418N 06259W 05791 0348 056 019 059 341 020 06156 0000000000
1556. 1415N 06258W 05792 0351 059 020 057 341 021 06160 0000000000
1557 1413N 06256W 05792 0349 055 019 059 341 019 06158 0000000000
1557. 1410N 06255W 05791 0349 061 021 055 341 021 06157 0000000000
1558 1408N 06254W 05792 0349 065 021 055 343 022 06158 0000000000
1558. 1405N 06253W 05791 0347 064 023 055 345 023 06155 0000000000
1559 1403N 06251W 05792 0346 061 022 055 345 022 06156 0000000000
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#310 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:06 am

Thunder44 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Anyone has the google graphics that are very good to see where the plane is? :)


I'm working on it right now. Give me moment.


Ok good.
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#311 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:10 am

Image
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#312 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:14 am

SXXX50 KNHC 241607
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 08 KNHC
1559. 1400N 06250W 05791 0347 061 022 055 345 023 06155 0000000000
1600 1358N 06249W 05797 0346 063 024 055 347 024 06161 0000000000
1600. 1356N 06248W 05788 0344 061 023 055 347 023 06149 0000000000
1601 1353N 06247W 05794 0344 057 022 055 349 023 06155 0000000000
1601. 1351N 06245W 05791 0342 056 022 055 347 023 06151 0000000000
1602 1348N 06244W 05789 0343 058 022 057 345 023 06149 0000000000
1602. 1346N 06243W 05792 0342 058 023 055 345 023 06152 0000000000
1603 1344N 06241W 05792 0342 058 024 055 347 024 06151 0000000000
1603. 1341N 06240W 05793 0341 057 024 053 349 025 06151 0000000000
1604 1339N 06239W 05791 0341 059 025 051 349 026 06150 0000000000
1604. 1336N 06238W 05668 0340 060 023 047 335 025 06026 0000000000
1605 1334N 06236W 05141 0308 066 023 015 303 024 05464 0000000000
1605. 1331N 06235W 04536 0271 054 020 007 127 022 04820 0000000000
1606 1329N 06234W 04032 0243 068 017 024 045 017 04282 0000000000
1606. 1326N 06233W 03482 0210 060 020 064 006 023 03698 0000000000
1607 1324N 06231W 03012 0179 069 032 088 020 036 03196 0000000000
1607. 1322N 06230W 02493 0148 062 036 126 048 036 02643 0000000000
1608 1319N 06230W 01986 0117 055 034 156 104 035 02104 0000000000
1608. 1316N 06231W 01580 0091 053 031 170 148 031 01691 0000000000
1609 1314N 06232W 01067 0051 052 031 196 180 032 01144 0000000000

Plane decends.
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#313 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:16 am

Plane now has decended to operational altitud.Soon we will start to get plenty of data from the system as it's very close now.
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Derek Ortt

#314 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:18 am

this is the shear that is doing a number on this system

The reaosn why SHIPS did not expect this is that NCEP, in their infinite wisdom (or lack there of), refuses to assimilate much of the satellite data, which renders the GFS upper wind forecasts totally useless
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#315 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:19 am

Image
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#316 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:23 am

674
URNT11 KNHC 241615
97779 16144 50130 62300 03100 04025 25231 /0010
40425
RMK AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 03


1010 mbs.
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#317 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:26 am

I had a idea that this tutt would not move as fast as the models. This whole season this thing has been there...When this slow down some maybe it will have a chance but for now no. Lets see if are little LLC is at the surface so we can get a vortex. This thing might pack the winds unlike 93L but 93L was very organized even so. But with the winds this has the better chance.
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#318 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:26 am

672
SXXX50 KNHC 241617
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 09 KNHC
1609. 1312N 06233W 00690 0021 049 027 216 216 028 00733 0000000000
1610 1309N 06233W 00463 0001 050 022 238 238 024 00482 0000000100
1610. 1308N 06231W 00396 5001 050 020 244 244 021 00406 0000000100
1611 1307N 06230W 00316 5007 050 022 252 252 025 00320 0000000100
1611. 1306N 06228W 00305 5009 051 026 256 256 027 00307 0000000100
1612 1306N 06226W 00306 5010 050 028 256 256 029 00307 0000000100
1612. 1306N 06225W 00300 5010 048 027 256 228 027 00300 0000000000
1613 1305N 06223W 00306 5011 045 028 252 228 030 00306 0000000000
1613. 1304N 06222W 00310 5012 035 024 246 232 025 00309 0000000000
1614 1303N 06221W 00310 5013 035 026 246 228 027 00308 0000000000
1614. 1301N 06220W 00307 5012 037 027 246 224 027 00305 0000000000
1615 1259N 06219W 00301 5013 038 026 246 224 026 00298 0000000000
1615. 1257N 06218W 00305 5014 039 025 248 216 026 00302 0000000000
1616 1256N 06216W 00305 5014 034 024 246 226 025 00301 0000000000
1616. 1254N 06215W 00305 5014 034 024 246 228 024 00302 0000000000
1617 1252N 06214W 00304 5014 031 022 246 232 023 00300 0000000000
1617. 1251N 06213W 00305 5015 028 020 246 236 020 00300 0000000000
1618 1249N 06212W 00305 5015 028 019 250 234 019 00300 0000000000
1618. 1247N 06211W 00305 5015 029 019 250 236 019 00300 0000000000
1619 1246N 06210W 00305 5016 031 017 248 238 017 00300 0000000000
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#319 Postby dizzyfish » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:27 am

Oops ya beat me to it! :uarrow:
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#320 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:28 am

Plane going more southward to try to find a west wind.
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