Hurricane Ioke thread

[wxmann_91]

It's not at the sfc. High-end Cat 4 at the sfc I believe.

[bob rulz]

ioki wont make it to shaskan?

No, because they don't change names when they cross basins. It would remain Ioke.

[Cyclenall]

It's not at the sfc. High-end Cat 4 at the sfc I believe.

Thank you. That's what I thought.

[clfenwi]

TXPN40 PHFO 240645
TCSCP

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0645 UTC THU AUG 24 2006

HURRICANE IOKE LOCATED AT 18.5N 171.9W AT 24/0530 UTC BASED ON 4 KM
RESOLUTION IR SECTOR IMAGES AND ANIMATION. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN
15 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED 102 KT. MOVEMENT
ESTIMATED TOWARDS 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24 HOURS

REMARKS...DT COMPUTED USING EYE PATTERN WITH SURROUNDING GREY SHADE
OF LG ON THE BD CURVE. PLUS 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR OW EYE YIELDS
DATA T OF 5.0. MET FOR SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS 5.5...NO
ADJUSTMENT FOR PT. FT BASED ON MET/PT. AODT IS 5.9.

$$

R BALLARD/PUCEVICH

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TPPZ1 KGWC 240630
A. HURRICANE IOKE (01C)
B. 24/0531Z (67)
C. 18.4N/3
D. 171.8W/7
E. TWO/GOES11
F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS -24/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR

05A/ PBO SML IRREGULAR EYE/ANMTN. SMALL 9NM DG EYE
SURROUNDED BY A 31NM LG RING GIVING A EYE NUMBER
OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJ YIELDING A DT OF 5.5.
FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T6.2 (OBSCD EYE)

CRUZ/LAING

[Cyclenall]

Ioke is now a major hurricane again. 100 knots on the NRL. Well, since it has a near pin-hole eye that is clearing out with a thick red (AVN) band of deep convection around it, I'd say 110-120 knots.

[bostonseminole]

000
WTPA22 PHFO 240835
TCMCP2

HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 172.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 140SE 100SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 172.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 172.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.0N 173.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.


FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.4N 174.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 100SW 180NW.


FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.6N 175.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 100SW 180NW.


FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 177.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 140NW.


FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.1N 180.0E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.7N 176.8E MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.5N 173.6E MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 172.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[clfenwi]

WTPA42 PHFO 240853
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 PM HST WED AUG 23 2006

IOKE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING. INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THE EYE IS BECOMING WELL DEFINED AND THE CDO IS BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER. THE T-NUMBERS FROM HFO...SAB...AND
AFWA HAVE ALL INCREASED TO T5.5 AND JTWC HAS MAINTAINED A T5.0. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BRINGING
IOKE BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS /CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE/ ONCE AGAIN.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR 305/7 FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS...
ALTHOUGH MORE RECENTLY THE MOTION APPEARS A BIT CLOSER TO DUE WEST.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE HAS BEEN RETROGRADING
WESTWARD...AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING IOKE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE
GFS...HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF IOKE IN THE LATER
TIME PERIODS...AND THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO FOLLOWS THIS TREND.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION
IN THE SHORT TERM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE UNDERNEATH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH IS MOVING WESTWARD ROUGHLY IN TANDEM
WITH THE CYCLONE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS BECOMES A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER
RIDGE WILL START TO OUTRUN IOKE. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND IOKE
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR AFTER 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THAT IOKE
WILL HAVE TO ENDURE...WITH THE GFS ON THE STRONGEST END OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND IN THE LONGER RANGE REMAINS
MORE MODEST THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS THAT
IOKE WILL CROSS THE DATELINE INTO A THE WEST PACIFIC IN ABOUT 72
HOURS AS A TYPHOON. NOTE THAT NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES CROSSING INTO
THE WEST PACIFIC BASIN MAINTAIN THEIR ORIGINAL NAME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 18.6N 172.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 173.3W 100 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 19.4N 174.4W 105 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 19.6N 175.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 19.6N 177.1W 100 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 19.1N 180.0E 90 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 18.7N 176.8E 85 KT
120HR VT 29/0600Z 18.5N 173.6E 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Cyclenall]

I just checked out Ioke and I can say that is not a category 3 hurricane right now. Since the tiny eye has almost cleared out totally, with a thick red band (using AVN images) of deep convection totally around Ioke, it's hard to justify a CAT3. I'd say it's 125 knots or so. I have looked at a few loops and the eye appeared and then disappeared a few times but now the cyclone looks very powerful.

[LAwxrgal]

How often is it there's a storm this powerful in the Central Pacific?

[whereverwx]

She looks great... again!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

130 knots at least perfect red cdo with pin hole eye. If it keeps going in 6 hours it should be nearing 140 knots.

[Scorpion]

I don't see this reaching Cat 5 at all. Especially in this basin where there is no recon. It's gotta be perfect to be a Cat 5.

[Brent]

WOW. She's backkkkkkkkkk.

[WmE]

Looking good. I think it's now a 120kt Cat4 storm, or even stronger.

[LAwxrgal]

I see blacks showing up again in her CDO. This is a beast. Thank heaven she's not near any land masses.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow if that hurricane spins any faster its going to start flying out into space!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just think that thing takes off in then lands right in the middle of the gulf. Boy would it ever bomb right over the loop. 160 knots!

[WmE]

Well, generally I'm conservative with predictions, but I think this is a boarderline cat4-5. Looking awfully good.

[Cyclenall]

Wow if that hurricane spins any faster its going to start flying out into space!

I took a long loop and put the setting at fastest and Ioke looks like Wilma when she was looping like crazy. It's like a spinning top.

[curtadams]

AODT has 129.6 knots - and with that small eye it could be even stronger - so Cat 5 is actually possible (although it's probably Cat 4, of course). But they're not going to upgrade it unless it's absolutely unquestionable, and I don't see that happening.