Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[Stormcenter]

Destruction, what would a weaker ridge mean?

More northerly component where the weakness is greatest or on the western edge. That would increase the threat to the central TX coast around to the Fl Panhandle. If the ridge is weaker.

GFDL is taken it into the FL Straits though....

Yes...that would take it toward the central Texas coast if the ridge builds back in, or as far east as the panhandle if a weakness develops to the north. That's IF the GFDL is correct right now, but we all know that's going to change countless times.

Assuming this does develop into a hurricane and takes that track the alarm would sound all along the entire GOM coastline. I can see the Oil execs rubbing their hands together already with excitement already at prospect of charging $80 plus per barrel for oil on PURE speculation, $4 a gallon gasoline.

[Evil Jeremy]

i told you all that this will be a SFL storm!!!!!

[terstorm1012]

HPC has an interesting discussion.

IN THE TROPICS... AT THIS TIME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ONLY THE
CANADIAN DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FROM THE FEATURE NOW
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OBJECTIVE AID RUNS AND GFDL ALL
SHOW A WNW TRACK WITH INCREASING INTENSITY TO AND ABOVE TS
STRENGTH AFTER 72 HRS. THE CANADIAN MODEL POSITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONSIDERABLY FAST.
TPC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST INDICATES A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO
OVERCOME AND PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS KEEPING AN OPEN PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THRU DAY 4 MON.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

just putting this out there.

[ConvergenceZone]

Destruction, what would a weaker ridge mean?

More northerly component where the weakness is greatest or on the western edge. That would increase the threat to the central TX coast around to the Fl Panhandle. If the ridge is weaker.

GFDL is taken it into the FL Straits though....

Yes...that would take it toward the central Texas coast if the ridge builds back in, or as far east as the panhandle if a weakness develops to the north. That's IF the GFDL is correct right now, but we all know that's going to change countless times.

Assuming this does develop into a hurricane and takes that track the alarm would sound all along the entire GOM coastline. I can see the Oil execs rubbing their hands together already with excitement already at prospect of charging $80 plus per barrel for oil on PURE speculation, $4 a gallon gasoline.

yea, and that would send this economy spiraling into a recession really really fast. There are far too many minimum wage jobs where folks just won't be able to afford to drive to work, period....

Anyway, back to the storm

[fci]

HEY, didn't you guys read in the last 15 minutes mods asking you not to make useless posts, I suggest you pay attention or you won't have this board to post on at all. We have a chatroom if you want to chat go there.

Ok, call me dumb, but maybe we are not sure what constitutes useless. Maybe it's just me.

Humor is important. Posts like sponger's keep the tension lower as the storms get worse. It calms people down. It is hardly useless!

Actually, the post by the mods she was referring to was made before sponger's anyway. I guess everyone just missed it.
...because it gave actual examples of useless posts, Damar91.

You people are completely ridiculous. Last night everyone was carrying on about a Cat 4-5 developing, now everyone is totally writing this system off. I am so tired of reading page after page of hysterical shouts of doom followed by page after page of "this one is a goner for sure".

If we eliminated the drama and hype and just discussed actual meteorlogical conditions, these threads wouldn't be 70 pages long for "just an invest".

Just my two cents which I am sure will get about 5 pages of flaming for speaking my mind.

--Lou

Nope, no flaming. As someone who had to catch up by wading through 10+ pages of good posts, as well as nonsense posts, I have to ask: please, think about what you want to say and formulate one post, instead of so many of the same people using the thread like a chatroom. The site is getting busy as well, and I think we all want to do everything we can to keep the site up and running with no interruptions.

Informative posts are getting buried within mere minutes.

A good little reminder that will only take a couple of minutes to read:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432

EDIT: BreinLA wasn't even talking about the humor posts!! Click the link, please.

Thanks for clarifying Brein's post.
I agree that if a thread gets hijacked it is one thing but a little humor and commiserating about the hours we spend on here is pretty harmless and a great diversion.

[skysummit]

i told you all that this will be a SFL storm!!!!!

Who the hell is saying this will be a south Florida storm? Dude...you need to calm down.

[Stormcenter]

HPC has an interesting discussion.

IN THE TROPICS... AT THIS TIME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ONLY THE
CANADIAN DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FROM THE FEATURE NOW
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OBJECTIVE AID RUNS AND GFDL ALL
SHOW A WNW TRACK WITH INCREASING INTENSITY TO AND ABOVE TS
STRENGTH AFTER 72 HRS. THE CANADIAN MODEL POSITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONSIDERABLY FAST.
TPC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST INDICATES A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO
OVERCOME AND PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS KEEPING AN OPEN PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THRU DAY 4 MON.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

just putting this out there.

Which is what some were saying yesterday and today on this board. The environmental may not be all that great or even good for a major hurricane or whatever in the NW Carribean or GOM when 97L/TD gets there.

[ConvergenceZone]

HPC has an interesting discussion.

IN THE TROPICS... AT THIS TIME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ONLY THE
CANADIAN DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FROM THE FEATURE NOW
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OBJECTIVE AID RUNS AND GFDL ALL
SHOW A WNW TRACK WITH INCREASING INTENSITY TO AND ABOVE TS
STRENGTH AFTER 72 HRS. THE CANADIAN MODEL POSITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONSIDERABLY FAST.
TPC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST INDICATES A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO
OVERCOME AND PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS KEEPING AN OPEN PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THRU DAY 4 MON.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

just putting this out there.

Hmm, seems to be favoring just an open wave and not a depression, at least until Monday.

[flhurricaneguy]

oh no its coming to s. fla????

[BreinLa]

fci, it has nothing to do with humor. I love humor, but when over 200 people are on the same forum, the board runs real slow for the rest of our members, especially when there are posts that say "..." which was deleted. And two mods asked that you all not post useless posts, like "I agree" or ... and everyone just ignored them that is why I posted what I did.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

earlier today the gfdl had this thing going nw to nnw making what looked like a bee line for Miami, then near the end of its run it started to go back to a nw to wnw path like it would go over southern florida or shoot the straits. Another model was alos showing a more northerly component. the end of both of the runs showed the ridge had retrograded way back to the east and the high was off the east coast. another ridge seemed poised over texas and through louisianna. that made it look like in the 5 day + that the path would have to be from the LA/MS border east for this storm once it either made it to the tip of the YP or was already just to the SE of Florida. In any case, it looks like there will either be a weakness and it ends up being a florida or even a fish storm, or else it ends up being a northern gulf to big bend type path. Like I said in another post, we will need to see what the models are syaing abotu the synoptics come Sunday... when hopefully there is more agreement between the models on the status of the ridge over the atlantic and SE. Right now, the models are in one of two camps...1 says it will maintain over the SE, the other camp puts it far off the east coast.

Let's hope this storm gets chewed up by going over land in the caribean somewhere, because all the models that are picking this up are turning it into a formidable storm for somebody!

[Wx_Warrior]

KFDM will be on a little later...no he doesn't know it all but he's pretty darn good...

says high pressure ridge looks to be strong...

he will be on shortly...just thought I would post

[curtadams]

Can we at least minimize the quoting for meta and humor? More that a screenful of quote for one line isn't efficient. If your addon isn't important enough to justify a minute editing down the quotes we could probably do without it.
It might help to have a way to rate a post as "funny" or "I agree" or "I disagree" without actually having to post.

[THead]

HPC has an interesting discussion.

IN THE TROPICS... AT THIS TIME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ONLY THE
CANADIAN DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FROM THE FEATURE NOW
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OBJECTIVE AID RUNS AND GFDL ALL
SHOW A WNW TRACK WITH INCREASING INTENSITY TO AND ABOVE TS
STRENGTH AFTER 72 HRS. THE CANADIAN MODEL POSITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONSIDERABLY FAST.
TPC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST INDICATES A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO
OVERCOME AND PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS KEEPING AN OPEN PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THRU DAY 4 MON.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

just putting this out there.

Yeah, I'd really like to see how it would survive that track across the eastern end of Cuba. Isn't it fairly moutainous there?

[cajungal]

This is one to watch.... This is from Channel 4 WWL New Orleans

Tropical Disturbance 35 Could Become a Depression Later Today
Updated: Thursday, August 24th 2006 4:51am CDT

At 4AM CDT, Tropical Disturbance #35 was centered along 57W/58W, with a low level center developing along the wave axis south of 13N. The disturbance continues to move slightly north of due west at a fairly rapid forward speed of 18-20 mph this morning. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms continue to become more organized within the circulation of the system, and we are beginning to feel increasingly confident that a tropical depression may form in this area over the next 12-24 hours. Air Force Reconnaissance is still scheduled to investigate this disturbance this afternoon.

Squalls associated with this disturbance have nearly reached northeastern Trinidad, and will be spreading across the remainder of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands through the afternoon. Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 60-70 mph can be expected in the strongest squalls across the southeast Caribbean on Thursday into Friday as the disturbance moves through the area.

We still expect that steering currents will most likely take the system on a west-northwest course across the southeast to central Caribbean over the weekend as high pressure remains over the southwest Atlantic. The system could reach the northwest Caribbean as early as Monday night. Conditions are favorable for strengthening and it is possible that the system could become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northwest Caribbean early next week. From there, a track into the Gulf of Mexico looks quite possible. It is too early to determine where landfall may occur, but this system has the potential to become a threat anywhere from the northern coast of Mexico northward to the Texas and Louisiana Coast. We think the risk to the eastern Gulf is lower, but cannot be ruled out at this time. We will continue to keep a very close eye on this disturbance.

[Wx_Warrior]

yes

[beachbum_al]

I don't like those new model tracks. They are too close to comfort for me. Okay I am not going to stress until we have something and unfortunately I think I will be stressing later next week. My question is and it is probably too early to tell but if this storm does become Ernesto and headed toward the MS, AL, or FL Coast when will that be based on what you are seeing now. Are we talking middle of next week?

And it is not me that I am worried about but those who have lost everything from last year.

[ConvergenceZone]

hehe, you can only imagine how active this board will be in the future once we have an active year(unlike this year). If an almost dead year like this year creates this many postings, you can imagine what an average year would be like....

[CajunMama]

HEY, didn't you guys read in the last 15 minutes mods asking you not to make useless posts, I suggest you pay attention or you won't have this board to post on at all. We have a chatroom if you want to chat go there.

Ok, call me dumb, but maybe we are not sure what constitutes useless. Maybe it's just me.

Humor is important. Posts like sponger's keep the tension lower as the storms get worse. It calms people down. It is hardly useless!

Actually, the post by the mods she was referring to was made before sponger's anyway. I guess everyone just missed it.
...because it gave actual examples of useless posts, Damar91.

You people are completely ridiculous. Last night everyone was carrying on about a Cat 4-5 developing, now everyone is totally writing this system off. I am so tired of reading page after page of hysterical shouts of doom followed by page after page of "this one is a goner for sure".

If we eliminated the drama and hype and just discussed actual meteorlogical conditions, these threads wouldn't be 70 pages long for "just an invest".

Just my two cents which I am sure will get about 5 pages of flaming for speaking my mind.

--Lou

Nope, no flaming. As someone who had to catch up by wading through 10+ pages of good posts, as well as nonsense posts, I have to ask: please, think about what you want to say and formulate one post, instead of so many of the same people using the thread like a chatroom. The site is getting busy as well, and I think we all want to do everything we can to keep the site up and running with no interruptions.

Informative posts are getting buried within mere minutes.

A good little reminder that will only take a couple of minutes to read:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432

EDIT: BreinLA wasn't even talking about the humor posts!! Click the link, please.

Thanks for clarifying Brein's post.
I agree that if a thread gets hijacked it is one thing but a little humor and commiserating about the hours we spend on here is pretty harmless and a great diversion.

But there's too much off topic. It's being made difficult to find information. Please respect our requests on this. Like some of you said...you're at work and you can't chat. I'm at work too and i don't have time to piddle thru uneccessary posts. All it takes it a little restraint and respect for your fellow posters. Thanks!

[ConvergenceZone]

This is one to watch.... This is from Channel 4 WWL New Orleans

Tropical Disturbance 35 Could Become a Depression Later Today
Updated: Thursday, August 24th 2006 4:51am CDT

At 4AM CDT, Tropical Disturbance #35 was centered along 57W/58W, with a low level center developing along the wave axis south of 13N. The disturbance continues to move slightly north of due west at a fairly rapid forward speed of 18-20 mph this morning. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms continue to become more organized within the circulation of the system, and we are beginning to feel increasingly confident that a tropical depression may form in this area over the next 12-24 hours. Air Force Reconnaissance is still scheduled to investigate this disturbance this afternoon.

Squalls associated with this disturbance have nearly reached northeastern Trinidad, and will be spreading across the remainder of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands through the afternoon. Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 60-70 mph can be expected in the strongest squalls across the southeast Caribbean on Thursday into Friday as the disturbance moves through the area.

We still expect that steering currents will most likely take the system on a west-northwest course across the southeast to central Caribbean over the weekend as high pressure remains over the southwest Atlantic. The system could reach the northwest Caribbean as early as Monday night. Conditions are favorable for strengthening and it is possible that the system could become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northwest Caribbean early next week. From there, a track into the Gulf of Mexico looks quite possible. It is too early to determine where landfall may occur, but this system has the potential to become a threat anywhere from the northern coast of Mexico northward to the Texas and Louisiana Coast. We think the risk to the eastern Gulf is lower, but cannot be ruled out at this time. We will continue to keep a very close eye on this disturbance.

Note the time this was put out though. ...The wave looked MUCH better then...