Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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Damar91
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#441 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:35 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:cyc,

your ob just answered the question

306 at 10KT, the circ is probably now closed


And so it begins. Will they issue a special advisory or wait until 5pm?
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#442 Postby WmE » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:36 pm

Damar91 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:cyc,

your ob just answered the question

306 at 10KT, the circ is probably now closed


And so it begins. Will they issue a special advisory or wait until 5pm?


I think they'll wait.
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#443 Postby 'CaneFreak » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:36 pm

However, we need convection in order for a TD to form....no TD until we get some convection closer to center....
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#444 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:37 pm

keep comments in the recon discussion thread please
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#445 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:37 pm

Well they just found a several WNW to NW winds higher than 5kts.
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#446 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:37 pm

I though we had a recon discussion thread for this and that this was only for reports? ;)
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#447 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:37 pm

Apparently they've got a closed or nearly closed circulation. This possibly gets upgraded.
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#448 Postby P.K. » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:37 pm

Brent wrote:306 degrees at 8 kt???


8kt 30 second reading, 10kt max ten second reading.
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superfly

#449 Postby superfly » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:38 pm

Looks like there is a closed circulation but it doesn't mean they will upgrade, especially since the convection is lacking.
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#450 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:38 pm

brunota2003 wrote:I though we had a recon discussion thread for this and that this was only for reports? ;)


Well it seems people can't help themselves.
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#451 Postby curtadams » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:39 pm

That plane is south! It's almost to South America! Could this really be from a center N of Grenada?
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#452 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:39 pm

brunota2003 wrote:I though we had a recon discussion thread for this and that this was only for reports? ;)


Sorry. :oops: I didn't even realize it til you mentioned it. :lol:
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#453 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:40 pm

I'v seen tons of a depression get upgraded look like this. I don't know where this convection has to be perfect over it to be upgraded come from. Oh 93L thats who...But now we need to wait for the vortex. Which I think will will find some 35 to 38 800 millibar winds or more.
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Derek Ortt

#454 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:40 pm

I think thats part of the larger circulation
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#455 Postby NONAME » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:44 pm

So Do you think that it is Closed Derek with that last report.
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#456 Postby stormernie » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:46 pm

We are all talking about the west wind, however, I have not seen this. Yes someone reported that they had closed it off with a 306 degree at 8kts. However, I have not seen this from the plane. And remember there are 2 planes out there. So let's wait until we actually have the report from the plane.
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#457 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:46 pm

I THINK IT LOOKS REALLY GOOD. THE CENTER MAY BE DISPLACED, BUT THE BANDING IS EXCEPTIONAL, ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST.

Image
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#458 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:47 pm

the report has been in the other recon thread...
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#459 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:47 pm

stormernie wrote:We are all talking about the west wind, however, I have not seen this. Yes someone reported that they had closed it off with a 306 degree at 8kts. However, I have not seen this from the plane. And remember there are 2 planes out there. So let's wait until we actually have the report from the plane.


SXXX50 KNHC 241827
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 22 KNHC
1819. 1155N 06238W 00305 5019 266 002 240 230 003 00297 0000000000
1820 1154N 06239W 00303 5020 241 002 242 228 004 00293 0000000000
1820. 1153N 06240W 00301 5020 285 003 244 228 003 00292 0000000000
1821 1152N 06241W 00305 5020 236 005 246 224 005 00295 0000000000
1821. 1151N 06242W 00305 5020 255 003 248 226 004 00296 0000000000
1822 1150N 06243W 00304 5020 286 003 250 226 003 00295 0000000000
1822. 1148N 06244W 00306 5020 305 005 250 224 006 00296 0000000000
1823 1147N 06244W 00305 5020 306 008 250 224 010 00295 0000000000
1823. 1145N 06244W 00304 5021 287 012 250 218 013 00294 0000000000
1824 1143N 06244W 00306 5022 294 010 252 210 012 00295 0000000000
1824. 1142N 06244W 00304 5021 281 008 252 204 010 00294 0000000000
1825 1140N 06244W 00305 5022 285 007 244 212 008 00294 0000000000
1825. 1139N 06244W 00306 5023 300 009 246 212 010 00294 0000000000
1826 1137N 06244W 00306 5022 291 012 238 222 014 00295 0000000000
1826. 1136N 06243W 00306 5023 286 017 238 218 017 00294 0000000000
1827 1134N 06242W 00304 5022 281 016 240 216 017 00293 0000000000
1827. 1133N 06241W 00305 5021 275 016 240 224 016 00294 0000000000
1828 1132N 06240W 00305 5022 271 017 238 232 017 00294 0000000000
1828. 1130N 06239W 00307 5022 265 017 238 232 018 00296 0000000000
1829 1131N 06238W 00302 5022 277 016 240 222 017 00290 0000000000
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superfly

#460 Postby superfly » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:48 pm

Well you bolded the NW wind. The west winds are actually lower down.

1828 1132N 06240W 00305 5022 271 017 238 232 017 00294 0000000000
1828. 1130N 06239W 00307 5022 265 017 238 232 018 00296 0000000000
1829 1131N 06238W 00302 5022 277 016 240 222 017 00290 0000000000
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