Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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stormernie

#461 Postby stormernie » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:48 pm

I stand corrected. Thank you
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curtadams
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#462 Postby curtadams » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:50 pm

I think this has two centers. One near the swirl N of Grenada and one close to the blowup in the Caribbean. Remember how it looked to have two centers last night? Well, they're both still there. Maybe only the overall circulation is closed.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#463 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:52 pm

Alberto was upgraded that way. I see no problem.
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#464 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:53 pm

URNT11 KNHC 241832
97779 18294 50115 62600 03100 28018 23228 /0009
42610
RMK AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 14

5th 1009 mb reading.Coordinates=11.5n-62.6w
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#465 Postby benny » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:55 pm

the fast forward motion has a way of displacing the center southward from satellite... you see that all the time in the caribbean...
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#466 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:59 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 241852
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 24 KNHC
1839. 1151N 06205W 00305 5020 228 017 238 220 017 00295 0000000000
1840 1151N 06203W 00305 5021 228 017 240 218 018 00295 0000000000
1840. 1151N 06201W 00304 5022 232 015 242 222 016 00293 0000000000
1841 1151N 06159W 00305 5022 228 019 246 210 020 00293 0000000000
1841. 1151N 06157W 00305 5023 227 020 242 212 021 00293 0000000000
1842 1151N 06155W 00304 5023 229 020 236 232 021 00292 0000000000
1842. 1151N 06153W 00300 5023 224 019 236 232 020 00288 0000000000
1843 1151N 06151W 00305 5023 221 019 234 230 019 00292 0000000000
1843. 1151N 06149W 00304 5023 218 019 232 232 020 00291 0000000000
1844 1151N 06147W 00305 5023 218 020 230 228 021 00293 0000000000
1844. 1151N 06145W 00304 5022 212 020 234 224 021 00292 0000000000
1845 1151N 06143W 00309 5022 207 022 232 228 023 00298 0000000000
1845. 1152N 06141W 00307 5021 210 022 230 230 022 00297 0000000000
1846 1152N 06139W 00304 5020 205 022 232 232 022 00295 0000000000
1846. 1153N 06138W 00304 5020 201 023 236 230 024 00295 0000000000
1847 1154N 06136W 00305 5020 201 025 234 230 025 00295 0000000000
1847. 1156N 06134W 00306 5020 200 026 234 232 026 00296 0000000000
1848 1157N 06132W 00304 5020 199 026 234 234 026 00295 0000000000
1848. 1158N 06131W 00305 5020 201 026 236 234 027 00295 0000000000
1849 1159N 06129W 00305 5020 198 027 236 232 027 00295 0000000000
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#467 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:01 pm

My conclusion: we have TD5.
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#468 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:03 pm

Still need a VDM....
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#469 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:07 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Still need a VDM....


Exactly..
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#470 Postby benny » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:My conclusion: we have TD5.


I mostly agree...a little swirly on the west side.. it is VERY close and within the margin of error now. The 33 kt at Barbados complicates things. Kinda hard to say it is only 30 kt with that report.. especially since they have already at least 30 kt winds reports a couple times in the Windwards. Ernesto or TD#5 might be the toughest decision.. esp since it looks junky on satellite.
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Ernesto Advisories

#471 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:14 pm

561
WONT41 KNHC 241912
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM
AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Last edited by drezee on Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#472 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:15 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 241907
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 26 KNHC
1859. 1223N 06054W 00305 5014 178 026 240 232 027 00301 0000000000
1900 1224N 06052W 00305 5014 177 027 240 232 027 00301 0000000000
1900. 1225N 06051W 00305 5014 178 026 240 234 027 00302 0000000000
1901 1226N 06049W 00305 5013 177 028 240 228 029 00302 0000000000
1901. 1227N 06047W 00305 5013 178 026 240 230 028 00302 0000000000
1902 1228N 06046W 00305 5013 177 025 240 232 026 00303 0000000000
1902. 1229N 06044W 00306 5012 177 026 240 236 026 00304 0000000000
1903 1230N 06042W 00304 5011 173 028 240 232 029 00304 0000000000
1903. 1231N 06041W 00305 5011 175 028 240 230 030 00305 0000000000
1904 1232N 06039W 00304 5011 176 027 240 230 028 00303 0000000000
1904. 1233N 06037W 00306 5011 180 026 240 230 027 00305 0000000000
1905 1234N 06036W 00304 5011 178 026 240 228 027 00304 0000000000
1905. 1235N 06034W 00305 5010 172 026 240 228 026 00305 0000000000
1906 1236N 06032W 00299 5010 170 026 242 228 027 00299 0000000000
1906. 1237N 06031W 00300 5011 167 024 242 230 026 00299 0000000000
1907 1238N 06030W 00306 5011 167 024 240 230 024 00305 0000000000
1907. 1240N 06029W 00304 5011 164 025 242 228 025 00304 0000000000
1908 1241N 06028W 00305 5011 163 025 238 236 025 00305 0000000000
1908. 1242N 06026W 00304 5011 166 025 236 236 025 00303 0000000000
1909 1243N 06025W 00305 5011 169 029 222 222 033 00305 0000000000
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#473 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:15 pm

We have a winner!!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#474 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:15 pm

Waiting for Vortex.
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#475 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:24 pm

benny wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:My conclusion: we have TD5.


I mostly agree...a little swirly on the west side.. it is VERY close and within the margin of error now. The 33 kt at Barbados complicates things. Kinda hard to say it is only 30 kt with that report.. especially since they have already at least 30 kt winds reports a couple times in the Windwards. Ernesto or TD#5 might be the toughest decision.. esp since it looks junky on satellite.


I think they will hold it at 30 knots (35 mph) and call it TD5.
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#476 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:32 pm

I wonder if we could see Ernesto become a hurricane by the weekend
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#477 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:34 pm

since this hadnt been posted:

SXXX50 KNHC 241927
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 28 KNHC
1919. 1302N 05958W 00310 5007 166 030 218 218 033 00313 0000000000
1920 1304N 05958W 00305 5008 155 031 220 220 032 00308 0000000000
1920. 1306N 05958W 00300 5009 151 032 224 224 032 00302 0000000000
1921 1307N 05958W 00306 5009 152 033 224 224 033 00308 0000000000
1921. 1309N 05958W 00304 5009 148 031 220 220 032 00306 0000000000
1922 1311N 05958W 00305 5009 150 031 220 220 032 00307 0000000000
1922. 1313N 05958W 00305 5008 151 031 222 222 032 00307 0000000000
1923 1314N 05958W 00305 5007 152 031 224 222 032 00308 0000000000
1923. 1316N 05958W 00305 5006 147 026 222 222 028 00309 0000000000
1924 1318N 05958W 00306 5006 149 025 220 220 026 00311 0000000000
1924. 1320N 05959W 00303 5006 148 027 224 224 028 00308 0000000000
1925 1321N 05959W 00305 5006 149 025 222 222 026 00309 0000000000
1925. 1323N 05959W 00305 5007 153 027 220 220 028 00309 0000000000
1926 1325N 05959W 00305 5007 150 027 224 224 028 00308 0000000000
1926. 1327N 05959W 00305 5007 149 027 226 226 028 00308 0000000000
1927 1328N 05959W 00304 5007 144 028 226 226 029 00308 0000000000
1927. 1330N 05959W 00306 5007 144 030 226 226 031 00310 0000000000
1928 1332N 05959W 00303 5007 144 031 226 226 031 00307 0000000000
1928. 1334N 05959W 00306 5006 139 027 222 222 029 00310 0000000000
1929 1335N 05959W 00305 5005 137 027 218 218 029 00311 0000000000
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craptacular
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#478 Postby craptacular » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:35 pm

Is something wrong with the recon feed? We missed the 1829-1839 and 1849-1859 observations, and now the 1909-1919.

edit: peak wind so far was 33 knots, although we are missing a lot of data
Last edited by craptacular on Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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brunota2003
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#479 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:36 pm

craptacular wrote:Is something wrong with the recon feed? We missed the 1829-1839 and 1849-1859 observations, and now the 1909-1919.
I think it has more to do with nobody bothering to post them...
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#480 Postby craptacular » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:38 pm

brunota2003 wrote: I think it has more to do with nobody bothering to post them...


Too much excitement now, eh?
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