TS Ernesto General Chat Thread

[Brent]

:woo:

I'm sorry but after last season you need to explain to me what all the excitement is about. No one, I repeat no one needs another hurricane along the GOM or even Eastern U.S. coastline.

I understand... I've just been sitting here all day(I really need a life) and am glad it's finally developed.

[skysummit]

I knew a post like this would come in handy!

this wave is history........Derek just confirmed the entire Carib is in EXTREME shear. A wave can't survive that. I wouldn't give this a chance of developing at all now.

Convergence...do you still give this no chance at developing?

[canegrl04]

Get ready for Nasty Ernesto

[ConvergenceZone]

I knew a post like this would come in handy!

this wave is history........Derek just confirmed the entire Carib is in EXTREME shear. A wave can't survive that. I wouldn't give this a chance of developing at all now.

Convergence...do you still give this no chance at developing?

I still can't see this being a hurricane, depression yea, maybe storm, but too much shear for a hurricane IN MY OPINION...

[ga_ben]

Its like we are all expectant mothers and fathers in the delivery room. Well we have a bouncing baby TD 5, orErnesto. I'll pass out the bubblegum cigars!

[tomboudreau]

I hate to say it...but yes, there is still a chance this one develop...the eastern Caribeane is a grave yard for systems. I dont know how many storms have fizzled out in this area, but I have seen in posts before that this area has been notorious for killing systems off.

[SouthFloridawx]

667
WONT41 KNHC 241920
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

CORRECTED FOR DATE IN HEADER

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM
AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Scorpion]

Barbados' Grantley Adams Airport reporting sustained winds to 38mph from the south at 1830Z ( 230pm) .

I have seen rain reports from the islands of averaging 30mm at least from Barbados and Tobago and over 60mm from Trinidad since yesterday.

38 mph on land...this is a TS.

[Sanibel]

The shear isn't that bad.

A good eye would see this one has been thickening all day with increasingly curved convection.

Track: 280*-285*

[SunnyThoughts]

All we can do now is watch and wait...and be prepared with all the supplies everyone should have already stocked up on. Hopefully Ernesto will stay weak and just bring some well needed rain to parts of the gulfcoast who need it. Take care everyone...and hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.

[Normandy]

Barbados' Grantley Adams Airport reporting sustained winds to 38mph from the south at 1830Z ( 230pm) .

I have seen rain reports from the islands of averaging 30mm at least from Barbados and Tobago and over 60mm from Trinidad since yesterday.

38 mph on land...this is a TS.

Not surprised....look at a vis and check out how fast the clouds are moving from S to N near the islands.

[bvigal]

Luis, just rename this thread "whoo-hoo" and start another one for ADVISORIES ONLY. No one is listening to you.

[Tampa_God]

This looks like a depression, but shear is ripping some of the convention on top. Slow development will probably be the story.

[SouthFloridawx]

I have edited the title because there is already another Advisory thread. I have decided to add a little twist to make the other Model, Discussion, analysis thread a little lighter in traffic. People can now post general chatting about speculation and thoughts... as well jokes and chatting about TD 5 or TS Ernesto.

[cycloneye]

Well done.This thread will be to more less hard information in other words.

[decgirl66]

I have edited the title because there is already another Advisory thread. I have decided to add a little twist to make the other Model, Discussion, analysis thread a little lighter in traffic. People can now post general chatting about speculation and thoughts... as well jokes and chatting about TD 5 or TS Ernesto.

Good idea! Emotions really run high around here when there is something out there to watch!

[cajungal]

With the Katrina anniversary barely 5 days away, it will send more painful reminders of another system entering the gulf right around that time frame. It is sometimes kind of freaky. But, we are only 2 weeks away from the peak and I knew things would be heating up.

[decgirl66]

I haven't seen any posts from Will today....or did I miss them? Hope he is ok!

Nevermind...I see his one about Debby...

[LAwxrgal]

I haven't seen any posts from Will today....or did I miss them? Hope he is ok!

LOL when he catches the news and sees there's at least a TD out there that might hit land somewhere, he'll come running in here.

[CronkPSU]

I have edited the title because there is already another Advisory thread. I have decided to add a little twist to make the other Model, Discussion, analysis thread a little lighter in traffic. People can now post general chatting about speculation and thoughts... as well jokes and chatting about TD 5 or TS Ernesto.

so this is the thread for those of us who like to post "I agree!" or "i think i see an eye!"?