Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Normandy
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#81 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:01 pm

^A new burst just occured over the center, so the shear must not be doing so well.
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Trugunzn
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#82 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:02 pm

Shear should not be the problem because its expected to move west.
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#83 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:03 pm

looking better!
Image
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Mac

#84 Postby Mac » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:04 pm

It's not in the shear yet.
The shear is still to the west of the storm...and it may continue to move to the west as the storm does. So shear may not even be an issue. It's just to hard to forecast more than 24 hr in advance with any accuracy.
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#85 Postby bvigal » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:05 pm

3:51 pm folks, i dont think that shear will be a problem for the next couple of days...Just relax and worry about whether it will be a TD or TS at 5pm...
3:48 pm What is the nearest radar system to this TS?
3:47 pm if barbados has surface winds at 38mph it has got to be a TS with winds of al least 45mph..
3:45 pm can someone provide me with barbados current weather conditions?
thank you
3:44 pm Have been busy all day and I log onto this! Looks like this will be nearing the GOM by next Monday..I know I will be watching this for sure!
that link doesnt work...
3:23 pm Subject: TD #5 or TS Ernesto General Chat Thread
Folks, we are averaging 2-4 post every minute.

Trying to break that record? :wink: I see you are brand new. Welcome to the forums! :D :D It's a good idea to do lots more reading the first couple of days, to get the hang of things. And good reading in "NEW Rules and Guidelines for EVERYONE.." at the top of every page on this board. :wink:

http://weather.noaa.gov/index.html
Choose "International" and find any airport in the world. Also, save it to your FAVORITES.

French Antilles Radar
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

Aruban Radar
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp
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#86 Postby Robjohn53 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:10 pm

Could hit Cuba and die hard to tell....
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#87 Postby gopherfan21 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:11 pm

Could hit Cuba and die hard to tell....


Systems do not die over Cuba. See: Dennis 2005 and Charley 2004.

If it hits Cuba anywhere, it will be the Western Tip which is just about as swampy and flat as the Everglades.
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#88 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:11 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Shear should not be the problem because its expected to move west.


I think it may be in it's future.
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Mac

#89 Postby Mac » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:11 pm

Robjohn53 wrote:Could hit Cuba and die hard to tell....
Not likely if it tracks across western Cuba. It's flat as can be and not that wide of a land mass.
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Mac

#90 Postby Mac » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:12 pm

gopherfan21 wrote:
Could hit Cuba and die hard to tell....


Systems do not die over Cuba. See: Dennis 2005 and Charley 2004.

If it hits Cuba anywhere, it will be the Western Tip which is just about as swampy and flat as the Everglades.


Central to eastern Cuba can kill a storm. It's mountainous there. But not western.
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#91 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:13 pm

Mac wrote:It's not in the shear yet.
The shear is still to the west of the storm...and it may continue to move to the west as the storm does. So shear may not even be an issue. It's just to hard to forecast more than 24 hr in advance with any accuracy.


How many times in the past have we had shear destroy storms even though it was "forecasted" not to be there?
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#92 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:14 pm

18Z tracks on TD 5 have shifted westward, as expected. New ECMWF moves it toward the south to mid Texas coast next Wed/Thu. With a ridge building over Florida/Georgia by day 5, a WNW track looks likely.

Image
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Mac

#93 Postby Mac » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:14 pm

Countless times. Which is kind of my point. I'm basically saying, "Maybe shear will be there, maybe it won't." Shear is one of the more fickle things to be forecast, IMO.
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#94 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:14 pm

Heres what Dr. Jeff Masters about shear with system:

Wind shear
Upper level winds out of the west are creating about 5-10 knots of wind shear over the center, which is not significantly inhibiting development. The shear is forecast to remain low through the next five days. There is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, but it is forecast to retreat to the west ahead of the developing storm. The evolution of the shear pattern over the past 24 hours has matched what the GFS has said would happen, so this gives me confidence that the shear forecast is correct, at least for the next day. This system does have the potential to become a hurricane by early next week.
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#95 Postby gopherfan21 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:16 pm

Central to eastern Cuba can kill a storm. It's mountainous there. But not western.


Central Cuba, definitely not sufficient enough.....Eastern Cuba, can maybe down a small, strong tropical storm to a depression, but it's not going to kill a storm. In this sense, see Georges 1998.

Hispanola is the killer, not the other two islands.
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#96 Postby Windtalker1 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:18Z tracks on TD 5 have shifted westward, as expected. New ECMWF moves it toward the south to mid Texas coast next Wed/Thu. With a ridge building over Florida/Georgia by day 5, a WNW track looks likely.

Image
Move the tracks up about 5 degrees....Tracks will change by the weekend. Florida to Texas should watch this storm...even the east coast.
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#97 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:17 pm

new european models have weak high over Texas...looks like a tx coast thing as of now....Early, early...
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#98 Postby Tampa_God » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:17 pm

Eastern Cuba is the mountainous area of the country. Western is pretty flat.

Afraid to say this, but this looks like a Charley storm.
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#99 Postby ga_ben » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:17 pm

If shear doesn't effect this storm, what else is out there to inhibit growth (besides land interaction)? Looks like SSTs are plenty warm and the air is moist and juicy out ahead of it. Its also slowly but surely moving away from the SA coastline.
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Derek Ortt

#100 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 24, 2006 3:17 pm

GFS doesnt assimilate much sat data
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