Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- bvigal
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3:51 pm folks, i dont think that shear will be a problem for the next couple of days...Just relax and worry about whether it will be a TD or TS at 5pm...
3:48 pm What is the nearest radar system to this TS?
3:47 pm if barbados has surface winds at 38mph it has got to be a TS with winds of al least 45mph..
3:45 pm can someone provide me with barbados current weather conditions?
thank you
3:44 pm Have been busy all day and I log onto this! Looks like this will be nearing the GOM by next Monday..I know I will be watching this for sure!
that link doesnt work...
3:23 pm Subject: TD #5 or TS Ernesto General Chat Thread
Folks, we are averaging 2-4 post every minute.
Trying to break that record?




http://weather.noaa.gov/index.html
Choose "International" and find any airport in the world. Also, save it to your FAVORITES.
French Antilles Radar
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html
Aruban Radar
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp
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gopherfan21 wrote:Could hit Cuba and die hard to tell....
Systems do not die over Cuba. See: Dennis 2005 and Charley 2004.
If it hits Cuba anywhere, it will be the Western Tip which is just about as swampy and flat as the Everglades.
Central to eastern Cuba can kill a storm. It's mountainous there. But not western.
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Mac wrote:It's not in the shear yet.
The shear is still to the west of the storm...and it may continue to move to the west as the storm does. So shear may not even be an issue. It's just to hard to forecast more than 24 hr in advance with any accuracy.
How many times in the past have we had shear destroy storms even though it was "forecasted" not to be there?
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Heres what Dr. Jeff Masters about shear with system:
Wind shear
Upper level winds out of the west are creating about 5-10 knots of wind shear over the center, which is not significantly inhibiting development. The shear is forecast to remain low through the next five days. There is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, but it is forecast to retreat to the west ahead of the developing storm. The evolution of the shear pattern over the past 24 hours has matched what the GFS has said would happen, so this gives me confidence that the shear forecast is correct, at least for the next day. This system does have the potential to become a hurricane by early next week.
Wind shear
Upper level winds out of the west are creating about 5-10 knots of wind shear over the center, which is not significantly inhibiting development. The shear is forecast to remain low through the next five days. There is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, but it is forecast to retreat to the west ahead of the developing storm. The evolution of the shear pattern over the past 24 hours has matched what the GFS has said would happen, so this gives me confidence that the shear forecast is correct, at least for the next day. This system does have the potential to become a hurricane by early next week.
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Central to eastern Cuba can kill a storm. It's mountainous there. But not western.
Central Cuba, definitely not sufficient enough.....Eastern Cuba, can maybe down a small, strong tropical storm to a depression, but it's not going to kill a storm. In this sense, see Georges 1998.
Hispanola is the killer, not the other two islands.
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- Windtalker1
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Move the tracks up about 5 degrees....Tracks will change by the weekend. Florida to Texas should watch this storm...even the east coast.wxman57 wrote:18Z tracks on TD 5 have shifted westward, as expected. New ECMWF moves it toward the south to mid Texas coast next Wed/Thu. With a ridge building over Florida/Georgia by day 5, a WNW track looks likely.
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