TORNADO WATCH ND/SD/IA/MN/WI

[dean]

got a new storm that has just gathered a lot of strength to my northwest and it's moving southeast towards my area.

[conestogo_flood]

Bismarck is in the path of a TVS and tornado warning for Mercer county. The arrow takes it right over the city. It'll reach Bismarck in about an hour.

[chizniz16]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006





AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH SERN MN/WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...

VALID 241805Z - 242000Z

...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MN/SWRN WI WITH
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS SPREADING INTO WCNTRL MN...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT FROM SERN SD THROUGH SRN
MN...WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY DEPICT A SECONDARY IMPULSE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER ERN MT/WRN ND.
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY...WITH A
BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR ABERDEEN SD TO VALENTINE NEB AND
ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IN WCNTRL MN.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E/SEWD
FROM WCNTRL MN AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A LOCAL EXTENSION OF
THE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MORRISON/MILLE LACS AND KANABEC
COUNTIES...GIVEN STRONG STORM NOW IN POPE COUNTY.

SFC TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS SWRN MN...WHICH
HAS BEEN IN A RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE ZONE. AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY THIS AFTN FOR SIGNS OF
SFC-BASED STORMS. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY STRONG ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTN.
[img][/img]

[conestogo_flood]

TVS appearing all over that line of thunderstorms west of Bismarck. New tornado warning for Burleigh county, tornado 13 miles southeast of Bismarck moving northeast. Bismarck won on this one, but people still at risk.

[conestogo_flood]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
135 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM HAIL 3 SE STANTON 47.29N 101.34W
08/24/2006 E4.00 INCH MERCER ND PUBLIC

SEVERE SIZE HAIL LASTED UNTIL 1100 AM CDT. LARGEST STONES
GRAPEFRUIT SIZE. MANY VEHICLES DESTROYED. BUILDING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. REPORT FROM GREAT RIVER ENERGY PLANT.

[Jim Cantore]

Ouch

Theres one in wisconsin showing 65 DBZ on NWS doppler

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=arx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[conestogo_flood]

Should North Dakota be upgraded to a tornado watch? They got tornado warnings coming out of their ears at NWS Bismarck.

[conestogo_flood]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
141 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

NDC015-241900-
/O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-060824T1900Z/
BURLEIGH ND-
141 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL BURLEIGH COUNTY...

AT 135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MOFFIT...OR ABOUT
21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. A POSSIBLE
TORNADO HAS BEEN SPOTTED 13 MILES SOUTH OF BISMARCK.

[craptacular]

Ouch

Theres one in wisconsin showing 65 DBZ on NWS doppler

Was that down by Madison? We just got slammed hard at about 1:30, but I wasn't able to look at the radar then. We're in a little bit of a lull before the next part hits, although the nasty bow echo that formed over the county to our west looks to have weakened as it moves into the Madison area.

[Bunkertor]

Question: Hm, what are the main points to appear to call an event outbreak. What caracterizes an outbreak ( major outbreak ) ?

Stay safe.

[chizniz16]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 241944Z - 242215Z

...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW
740 AS THREAT FOR SFC BASED STORMS INCREASE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS CLOUD STREETS STREAMING ACROSS
NRN IA NEAR AXA/MCW...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SRN MN ARE
OBSCURING A BETTER VIEW OF SFC CUMULUS. SFC TEMPS ACROSS SW MN ARE
NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS WEAK OR COMPLETELY GONE. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPH
INDICATED ON THE MINNEAPOLIS VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS.

COMPLICATING FACTOR IS BAND OF CONVECTION/ASCENT APPROACHING FROM
ERN SD. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL HELP INITIATE SFC BASED
STORMS ACROSS SWRN MN.

[conestogo_flood]

15% tornado has been dropped entirely. Hatched 10% remains.

[chizniz16]

As it should.. I will be out now.. SW Minnesota direction hooking up with some other guys, wish me luck!

[conestogo_flood]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

TORNADO WATCH 743 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC005-089-131-191-250500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0743.060824T2015Z-060825T0500Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLAMAKEE HOWARD MITCHELL
WINNESHIEK


MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-025-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-053-
055-059-065-067-073-079-085-091-093-095-097-099-103-109-121-123-
127-129-131-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-157-161-163-165-169-
171-173-250500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0743.060824T2015Z-060825T0500Z/

MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH
BROWN CARVER CHIPPEWA
CHISAGO DAKOTA DODGE
DOUGLAS FARIBAULT FILLMORE
FREEBORN GOODHUE HENNEPIN
HOUSTON ISANTI KANABEC
KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR
MARTIN MCLEOD MEEKER
MILLE LACS MORRISON MOWER
NICOLLET OLMSTED POPE
RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE
RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE
SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE
STEVENS SWIFT TODD
WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WINONA WRIGHT
YELLOW MEDICINE


WIC011-017-033-035-091-093-095-109-121-250500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0743.060824T2015Z-060825T0500Z/

WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN
EAU CLAIRE PEPIN PIERCE
POLK ST. CROIX TREMPEALEAU


ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

[CrazyC83]

Lots of good signatures but no reports...

[conestogo_flood]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

TORNADO WATCH 744 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MNC011-027-051-111-155-167-250400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0744.060824T2035Z-060825T0400Z/

MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIG STONE CLAY GRANT
OTTER TAIL TRAVERSE WILKIN


NDC003-005-017-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-049-051-069-073-
077-081-083-085-093-103-250400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0744.060824T2035Z-060825T0400Z/

ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARNES BENSON CASS
DICKEY EDDY EMMONS
FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY
MCINTOSH PIERCE RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT SHERIDAN
SIOUX STUTSMAN WELLS


SDC013-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-059-069-089-
091-107-109-115-119-129-250400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0744.060824T2035Z-060825T0400Z/

SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWN CAMPBELL CLARK
CODINGTON CORSON DAY
DEUEL DEWEY EDMUNDS
FAULK GRANT HAMLIN
HAND HYDE MARSHALL
MCPHERSON POTTER ROBERTS
SPINK SULLY WALWORTH


ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...

[Bunkertor]

Whats that. Hasn´t red been used for high and blue for medium risk ?

[CrazyC83]

Whats that. Hasn´t red been used for high and blue for medium risk ?

They jump around all the time. Orange is often used for MDT. When red is used for MDT, purple is used for HIGH.

[Bunkertor]

Hm, that makes no sense. But OK.

[conestogo_flood]

So far two tornado reports on the SPC, plus this that just came out...

457 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HYDE COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 455 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 11 MILES
EAST OF ONIDA IN SULLY COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.