Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Stormcenter
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#161 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:07 pm

After reading the NHC's first discussion on TD#5 why do I get the feeling they are trusting the models more this time around based on how well they did with Chris?
It just doesn't sound like they are too concerned with TD#5 being anything more than a minimal hurricane. It really doesn't look to impressive on satellite even with all the convection. If the shear kills this one off then I think devine intervention has taken over the 2006 hurricane. :D
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#162 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:08 pm

gatorcane wrote:Notice the NHC just keeps it as a TS through the forecast period - big deal in my opinion ....

I think we are all hyping this up as if we had conditions like 2005 and 2004. Not this year it looks like, at least not right now


I agree 100%, good post.
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#163 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:08 pm

SWFLA_CANE wrote:I'm surprised NHC keeps it as a T.S. through out its five day forecast.


Read the disco...Gives a hint that conditions are not quite favorable.

I AM REMINDED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CORRECTLY FORECAST
THE DISSIPATION OF CHRIS A WHILE BACK...AND THE GFDL DOESN'T ALWAYS
HANDLE SHEAR WELL.
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#164 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:09 pm

gatorcane wrote:Notice the NHC just keeps it as a TS through the forecast period - big deal in my opinion ....

I think we are all hyping this up as if we had conditions like 2005 and 2004. Not this year it looks like, at least not right now


We shall see...
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Evil Jeremy
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#165 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:10 pm

i neer trust the first one or two foresast tracks. they are commenly wrong.
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#166 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:11 pm

Models never do well with strength anyway 3 or 4 days out.
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#167 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:12 pm

Under done most of the time..
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#168 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:12 pm

rnbaida wrote:LATEST RECON JUST CAME IN.... WE HAVE 40MPH ON THE SURFACE WITH A PRESSURE OF 1007MB... I THINK IT WILL BE A TS...


I'm not sure where you got this, I have only seen 39KT per VDM.

Its only a Depression...
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#169 Postby sfwx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:18 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
221 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

MON-THU...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT RANGE...DO NOT PLAN TO
CHANGE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER IF THE LATEST MODEL
TREND PANS OUT...WE WON`T BE GETTING INTO MUCH OF AN EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME. ALSO...THE GFS IS INDICATING A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA...KEEPING THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE/INCIPIENT TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
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#170 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:21 pm

[quote="gatorcane"]Notice the NHC just keeps it as a TS through the forecast period - big deal in my opinion ....

I think we are all hyping this up as if we had conditions like 2005 and 2004. Not this year it looks like, at least not right now[/quote

yea, alot of the time these don't explode until they hit the Gulf.
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#171 Postby Javlin » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:25 pm

stormernie wrote:Latest satellite visible loop shows the LLC now being tuck into developing Thunderstorms to the north. If this trend contnues expect intensification to a TS b 5 PM.



TD5 is now covered.The shear is forcasted to increase out to it's W but the WV loop does not show that that till the 70'-75' mark.The other thing I notice is that there appears to be the makings of another ULL or TUTT @25N and 60W.A met would have to chime in on this but DOES it follow the same path as the now existing TUTT?and how fast?
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#172 Postby stormernie » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:25 pm

The LLC is now no longer exposed and thunderstorms are building over and around. Intensification is likely in short term and TS Ernesto at 11PM is a given. Also, tracks seems to be a little more WNW than between W and WNW let's see how this evolves during the night.
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#173 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:28 pm

Javlin wrote:
stormernie wrote:Latest satellite visible loop shows the LLC now being tuck into developing Thunderstorms to the north. If this trend contnues expect intensification to a TS b 5 PM.



TD5 is now covered.The shear is forcasted to increase out to it's W but the WV loop does not show that that till the 70'-75' mark.The other thing I notice is that there appears to be the makings of another ULL or TUTT @25N and 60W.A met would have to chime in on this but DOES it follow the same path as the now existing TUTT?and how fast?
Tutt may be out of the way in time for Ernesto to further gain strength.
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#174 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:28 pm

i still think that this will end up being a SFL situation.
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#175 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:29 pm

How? with high building? TD is to far south to get S. Florida
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#176 Postby T'Bonz » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:30 pm

^
Doubt it. Too far south. I think more GOM.

I'll be p**sed if it comes here. DH is out-of-town starting Sunday. Same thing happened last year and we got Katrina here. :/
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#177 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:30 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i still think that this will end up being a SFL situation.


Nah....serious?????
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#178 Postby cajungal » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:30 pm

Former New Orleans meterologist John Gumm said west is good for Louisiana. We have to pay close attention to trends and wobbles. West is good. West-northwest is bad for us. And fast west-northwest is even worse. He is a well respected meterologist. But, I bet Bob Breck will already sound the all clear for us at the 5 p.m. news. But, I have to head to work now, so I will catch up later.
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#179 Postby jwayne » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:30 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:How? with high building? TD is to far south to get S. Florida


You think Western Gulf?
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#180 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:31 pm

possibily around the Yuctan straits. and nothing is impossible right now. we just have to awit and see.
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