Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[skysummit]

possibily around the Yuctan straits. and nothing is impossible right now. we just have to awit and see.

Then that's not SFL.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

How? with high building? TD is to far south to get S. Florida

You think Western Gulf?

As of now, yes!

[southerngale]

i still think that this will end up being a SFL situation.

Can you give your reasoning? We'd all like to know.

[Evil Jeremy]

possibily around the Yuctan straits. and nothing is impossible right now. we just have to awit and see.

Then that's not SFL.

must i speak of charlie and wilma?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Not going to S. Florida, sorry.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I know you want it but it's to far south to affect S. Florida.

[jwayne]

How? with high building? TD is to far south to get S. Florida

You think Western Gulf?

As of now, yes!

I'm about 90 miles down the coast from you (inland a little from Houston). I don't like the sound of that!!

[skysummit]

possibily around the Yuctan straits. and nothing is impossible right now. we just have to awit and see.

Then that's not SFL.

must i speak of charlie and wilma?

Look man...you said you think it'll be a SFL situation, then you post the Yucatan Straights.....that's NOT South Florida. PLUS....Charley and Wilma had TOTALLY different situations than this.

[Javlin]

Latest satellite visible loop shows the LLC now being tuck into developing Thunderstorms to the north. If this trend contnues expect intensification to a TS b 5 PM.

TD5 is now covered.The shear is forcasted to increase out to it's W but the WV loop does not show that that till the 70'-75' mark.The other thing I notice is that there appears to be the makings of another ULL or TUTT @25N and 60W.A met would have to chime in on this but DOES it follow the same path as the now existing TUTT?and how fast?

Tutt may be out of the way in time for Ernesto to further gain strength.

KFDM what do you think about the new ULL or TUTT to the N and it,s impact.If becomes an ULL I can see nice outflow issues for TD5 if it stays far enough away.But a TUTT seems to be a whole different animal"remember Chris" the TUTT had it for a midnight snack.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Oh yea, the Tutt could be a problem. Just keep an eye on water vapor.

[Dean4Storms]

I said yesterday that it looks like an upper Texas coast event and I'm sticking with it. The ridge over the upper Gulf coast is expected to shift SE over the eastern Gulf come next week. This should steer it around the NE part of the Gulf toward TX.

[southerngale]

possibily around the Yuctan straits. and nothing is impossible right now. we just have to awit and see.

Then that's not SFL.

must i speak of charlie and wilma?

Look man...you said you think it'll be a SFL situation, then you post the Yucatan Straights.....that's NOT South Florida. PLUS....Charley and Wilma had TOTALLY different situations than this.

I agree with sky. Perhaps you could formulate all of your thoughts into one post that makes sense. Instead, we now have a dozen or so posts talking about your one comment that you seemed to just shoot out of nowhere.

And of course you're entitled to think it's going to S.Fl. or back to Africa if you'd like, but when you make statements like that, people want to know why. That's not too much to ask.

[x-y-no]

Not going to S. Florida, sorry.

Don't be sorry. Those of us in SFL aren't.

[drezee]

Not going to S. Florida, sorry.

Don't be sorry. Those of us in SFL aren't.

exactly!!!! ALL OF FL!!!

[Stormtrack]

Take a look at the link provided by southerngale of the Beaumont Rita dasmage and you will see a picture about 1/3rd of the way down of a 2-story house with the wall of the second floor missing except for studs and a very large double window with small panes, none of which seem to be broken. Another window just like it on the 1st floor also seems to be unaffected.

[sfwx]

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
400 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006


TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS VARY WITH REGARD TO DETAILS OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST GFS
HAS A WELL DEFINED TROUGH/WAVE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN
TO THE BAHAMAS MONDAY...APPROACHING THE KEYS AREA TUESDAY...THEN
PLACING THE KEYS IN DEEP SE MOIST FLOW WED AND THU. THIS IS ALL
UNCERTAIN...AND LATER PERIOD FORECAST PERIODS WILL FOLLOW SUBSEQUENT
NHC/HPC GUIDANCES.

[Air Force Met]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

I can breathe easier if this is right. The 500 High is over the central Gulf.

I posted this on another thread...but it belongs here too...so I am reposting it:

Well...looking at the current run...there are some subtle changes.

Old
Latest

The high is more to the NE. Instead of being at 91W...it's at 89W. INstead of just ridging into Florida...there is another high now over Florida. Where there was substantial ridging into west TX...now there is none.

The models are every changing.

[jwayne]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

I can breathe easier if this is right. The 500 High is over the central Gulf.

I posted this on another thread...but it belongs here too...so I am reposting it:

Well...looking at the current run...there are some subtle changes.

Old
[url=http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/i


mages/gfs_500_156m.gif]Latest[/url]

The high is more to the NE. Instead of being at 91W...it's at 89W. INstead of just ridging into Florida...there is another high now over Florida. Where there was substantial ridging into west TX...now there is none.

The models are every changing.

for us beginners, the new modelling would mean what for future track? thanks

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006


THE GFS IS
INDICATING THE CURRENT WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE WAVE STILL APPEARS
THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SO WILL LEAVE THE POPS AS IS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

[Canelaw99]

AFM, what impact would that have on the future track of a storm in that vicinity?