Ok folks.. Place your bets.. where's #5 going?

[carve]

Not sure will it may go!!! But the track NOAA has is scarey!!

[KatDaddy]

Hope like H its not to the Upper TX Coast! Rita scare was ENOUGH!!

[Recurve]

Mexico, unfortunately. That's my WAG based on a little climatology.

I can breathe easier with a track south of the Greater Antilles and a ridge. With it this far south, a strong ridge probably is good for avoiding any of the northern gulf. This is guessing though, not meteorology. of course.

[Grease Monkey]

I say north east towards florida. That debby is irresistable.

[Josephine96]

Debbie's way out in the Atlantic though

[Grease Monkey]

Well that will be up to ernesto then whether or not he feels debby is worth the travel.

[Furious George]

My odds of landfall (#'s add up to 90% b/c I assume 10% chance of dissipation). Basically, everyone along the Gulf coast has a shot at getting this storm since we are more than 5 days out.

South of TX/MX border: 10%
TX/MX border to 1/2 way up TX coast: 15%
1/2 way up TX coast to TX/LA boarder: 20%
TX/LA border to 1/2 way down LA coast: 18%
1/2 down LA coast to LA/MS border: 12%
LA/MS border to end of FL panhandle 10%
Florida Peninsula: 5%

[Steve]

>>Steve the way my luck has been going I wouldn't be surprised about any thing

That was to al_beachbum 'cause he said between MS and FL (which is of course Alabama). I was just playing with him.

But I hear what you're saying.

Steve

[Yankeegirl]

There are are alotta thoughts on this thing going towards texas!!!

[HouTXmetro]

I'm thinking

Lousiana 60%
Texas 45%
MS/AL/FL Panhandle 40%
Mexico 20%
Fla West Coast 15%

[digitaldahling]

between galveston and baffin bay..........could it be ground zero for matagorda bay which hadnt been hit by a major one in 45 years......9/11/61 , hoping for a weak T.S.

Hah, my sister-in-law lives in Bay City. Has no homeowner insurance or flood insurance. House is paid for. She and her husband think it's a waste of money.

Matagorda Bay, huh?

[BowMeHunter1974]

Texas Cat 3. Gas prices soar to 4+ bucks a gallon. Bad timing with Holiday.

[LaBreeze]

High gas prices - yes, and then there's the situation when there will be areas with no gas at all. With Rita we didn't have gas in our area for a couple of weeks and then it was a slow trickle and everyone was limited if a station had any at all (what stations were still standing and able to function). It becomes a much needed commodity - take the advice and fill up early if you need to.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

My odds of landfall (#'s add up to 90% b/c I assume 10% chance of dissipation). Basically, everyone along the Gulf coast has a shot at getting this storm since we are more than 5 days out.

South of TX/MX border: 10%
TX/MX border to 1/2 way up TX coast: 15%
1/2 way up TX coast to TX/LA boarder: 20%
TX/LA border to 1/2 way down LA coast: 18%
1/2 down LA coast to LA/MS border: 12%
LA/MS border to end of FL panhandle 10%
Florida Peninsula: 5%

I'm sure those numbers will go up in time

[cajungal]

I'm thinking

Lousiana 60%
Texas 45%
MS/AL/FL Panhandle 40%
Mexico 20%
Fla West Coast 15%

Wow. Louisiana 60% I am glad these are only amateur guesses. I am hoping the shear just tears it apart. It is the last thing we need.

[Galvestongirl]

I think it is a Fl. storm........just my guess.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think it is a Fl. storm........just my guess.

You would want it to go this way huh?
That is far far away from Galveston.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

between galveston and baffin bay..........could it be ground zero for matagorda bay which hadnt been hit by a major one in 45 years......9/11/61 , hoping for a weak T.S.

Hah, my sister-in-law lives in Bay City. Has no homeowner insurance or flood insurance. House is paid for. She and her husband think it's a waste of money.

Matagorda Bay, huh?

ya Bay City used to me my second home when I used to live in El Campo, I have friends in the Bay City and El Campo areas which is an hour drive southwest of houston, basically the last time that area has had a major blow was Hurricane Carla 9/11/61...........45 years almost! was on the west side of alicia in '83 didnt get much down there..

[LaBreeze]

I'm with you on that one cajungal.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I think it is a Fl. storm........just my guess.

ya fish storm would help......