Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[boca]

I wonder if the tutt over eastern Cuba has any tug on the system to seem to appear to a more NW direction because if you look at the sat picture the cirrus is moving NNE in the Central Caribbean.

[jenmrk]

Time to call the Bastardi!!!!!!!

Nope the track is to far North for him right now...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

KFDM can you see anything at all that would cause such a weakness that they are picking up on? Is it that likely?

A weak trough, very weak on the GFS and Canadian is shown but man to me just doesn't look strong enough to pull Ernie north. BUT, a weak front sags to the TX and LA coasts Wednesday that would keep it east of these areas. We'll see what models do tomorrow. The new Eurpoean will be out in the morning.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I am supposed to talk with Joe B. Friday afternoon.

[Wx_Warrior]

Please post your findings!!!!!

GET SOME SLEEP!!!!!!!! LOOOONG WEEKEND

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yup...

[jhamps10]

gee this thing does not even have a name yet and look at the hype, at the "this is crazy" thread. But Yeah I know the models have the right to switch areas from run to run, but from Gavalston, to the florida panhandle. Come on here, this is making me go insane

[bostonseminole]

Just looking a the latest 0Z global guidance...the UKMET...GFS and CMC have all come together on a track that does not take TD5 due west...they have all bent northward and maintained the cyclone throughout the forecast period.

The idea that this system is going to fullback it's way into the sw shear in the sw Caribbean is essentially gone.

Now...the question is how strong will this get?

MW

[Brent]

Just looking a the latest 0Z global guidance...the UKMET...GFS and CMC have all come together on a track that does not take TD5 due west...they have all bent northward and maintained the cyclone throughout the forecast period.

The idea that this system is going to fullback it's way into the sw shear in the sw Caribbean is essentially gone.

Now...the question is how strong will this get?

MW

[Rainband]

Just looking a the latest 0Z global guidance...the UKMET...GFS and CMC have all come together on a track that does not take TD5 due west...they have all bent northward and maintained the cyclone throughout the forecast period.

The idea that this system is going to fullback it's way into the sw shear in the sw Caribbean is essentially gone.

Now...the question is how strong will this get?

MW

ditto

[SouthFloridawx]

gee this thing does not even have a name yet and look at the hype, at the "this is crazy" thread. But Yeah I know the models have the right to switch areas from run to run, but from Gavalston, to the florida panhandle. Come on here, this is making me go insane

Dude if you think it insane now just tune into the following news channels this weekend and you'll see insanity.

Fox News
CNN
CNN Headline News
MSNBC
CNBC
CSPAN

ok well CSPAN doesn't count but, you get picture.

Sit down take a deep breath and go for a walk, get some sleep, wake up tomorrow and you'll feel a little better.

[boca]

So the 11pm model track is now old news from the NHC and what Mike Watkins posted is newer info?

[Bailey1777]

KFDM help us out, what direction is it going right now?

[jhamps10]

yeah I know, as soon as this thing gets a hurricane name on it, then well top story will shift from the middle east to the impending doom of the coast line.

And I hate to say it but I think the media will treat this like it's impending doom.

[SouthFloridawx]

So the 11pm model track is now old news from the NHC and what Mike Watkins posted is newer info?

Basically yes... we'll see a little bit of a change from the last forecast.

The Global Models are holding onto this a little more.

CMC takes it to the panhandle
GFS stalls it in the eastern GOM
UKMET into Texas/LA area.

not sure about the NOGAPS.

[Steve]

>>Just looking a the latest 0Z global guidance...the UKMET...GFS and CMC have all come together on a track that does not take TD5 due west...they have all bent northward and maintained the cyclone throughout the forecast period.

But all three have entirely different solutions. The UKMET (all MSLP) weakens it around the Yucatan and moves the open wave to toward the Central TX Coast, GFS keeps it weak and moves it south of the FL Panhandle, CMC has switched from Galveston to Central Texas to Walton or Okaloosa Counties as a mid-grader, and the GFDL has it jerking north south of the Panhandle as a substantial system near 25W in the 18z run.

The key is going to be the upper environment to the west and north of #5. As the TPC noted in the 11pm writeup, there is a bit of a split between moving the ULL following the TUTT/Trof split faster west or not. The split is heading southwest as per the last set of watervapor before Goes12 went blank (3:15UTC), so that could influence some ridging between it and #5 depending on the timing of each's forward speed.

It's got a long way to go through the Caribbean anyway.

Steve

[jhamps10]

I think it is moving a little bit more north than west, at least to my eye, it could be the fact that it's 12:30 in the morning and I've been looking at this thing for hours now, but it does look like a wnw movement, at around 17-19 MPH.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

yea just north of due west.

[Bailey1777]

So if I am to understand the thinking Mike brought up it is that shear will force this system in a Northerly direction?

[CSickinFL]

When was the last panhandle fiasco?

Ivan Sept 15,2004

Let us not forget Hurricane Dennis (July 10, 2005 - Cat 3) hitting Navarre Beach. I know I won't!