Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Stratosphere747]

IF it gets thru the shear over the next few days. SST's will be just added fuel.

The real story may be the ventilation that could possibly be setting up.

[kenl01]

There's allot of shear to the west of this system right now. Right now conditions don't look very good in the western and central Caribbean. If the shear continues I wouldn't be surprised if this system dissipates or fails to strengthen by that time.

[Thunder44]

At 10:15 UTC The center appears to be on the western edge of the convection near 13.5N and 66W moving west near 20mph. Looks like it will probably become a TS later this morning, but it should not intensify rapidly since the center is displaced somewhat from the thunderstorms. It has until 70W to develop further before it potentially runs int 50kt upper-level wind shear. The TUTT may back off enough westard or weaken to limit the amount of shear over the system but it will probably significant enough to prevent further intensification and weaken it.

[Normandy]

Goodness the shear in the western Carb. has NOTHING to do with a system in the eastern carribean...the TUTT is forecasted to move west. Am I saying conditions will be perfect? No, but will this dissipate? I also think that answer is No.

[KatDaddy]

Remember Chris...........POOF! This will hopefully be same fate for TD 5. Its about to encounter strong shear later today. Tonight TD 5 may be a wave being shredded apart.

[skysummit]

A very well respected former member of this board pointed out something to me last night talking about the shear. He said there's a possibilty....and a few models show it, that once TD5 gets to the western Carribean, an ULL could set up to its east and another to it's west causing a very bad situation. No signs of that yet happening, but it is a possiblity.

[Nimbus]

I woke up and read "there will be an upper low in the gulf" and almost spit coffee all over myself.

These are only early model runs but a week out you would think the major players would start getting easier to identify. Hurricanes seem to shape the environment if they intensify and start building high pressure over themselves so who knows?

Nice convection blossom this morning and the inflow looks like it is getting more symmetrical.

[KatDaddy]

Accu-weather also states it may not survive:

Here is another tropical trouble spot. It's not Ernesto yet, but it could be eventually. The storm faces a lot of difficulty, though. First, it has to get through a large expanse of African dust. Its presence creates a warm layer in the atmosphere which stabilizes things and retards convection. And we all know that without excessive convection, a tropical storm or hurricane cannot exist. The storm needs the heat that convection releases during the condensation process in order to survive. Okay, let's say the storm finds its way through the dust. The next task it faces is to somehow get past that opposing wind field. There are some indications that this zone will back westward, staying far enough ahead of the storm so it has room to strengthen. If that does not occur, the cloud mass will simply be sheared apart,

[Extremeweatherguy]

African dust? I havn't heard any people on here mention a "large expanse of African dust" over this thing. In fact, I heard a pro met last night say the environment over TD #5 was becoming more moist.

[Mac]

Accu-weather also states it may not survive:

Here is another tropical trouble spot. It's not Ernesto yet, but it could be eventually. The storm faces a lot of difficulty, though. First, it has to get through a large expanse of African dust. Its presence creates a warm layer in the atmosphere which stabilizes things and retards convection. And we all know that without excessive convection, a tropical storm or hurricane cannot exist. The storm needs the heat that convection releases during the condensation process in order to survive. Okay, let's say the storm finds its way through the dust. The next task it faces is to somehow get past that opposing wind field. There are some indications that this zone will back westward, staying far enough ahead of the storm so it has room to strengthen. If that does not occur, the cloud mass will simply be sheared apart,

"Large expanse of African dust"???? Wow! WTH are they talking about??? If there is a "large" expanse of dust around this storm, I must be missing it.

[HURAKAN]

African dust? I havn't heard any people on here mention a "large expanse of African dust" over this thing. In fact, I heard a pro met last night say the environment over TD #5 was becoming more moist.

In front of the TD or Ernesto.

[Mac]

African dust? I havn't heard any people on here mention a "large expanse of African dust" over this thing. In fact, I heard a pro met last night say the environment over TD #5 was becoming more moist.

There was quite a bit of SAL around this storm YESTERDAY MORNING. But the last SAL map I saw last night showed the SAL had greatly diminished and was retreating to the east.

[skysummit]

You can see the area of dust right in front of him:

[O Town]

Looks like a pocket of some dry air to me, no dust. I take that back after looking at that graph. But I don't see it on Sat images.

[Mac]

That is not exactly what I would call a "large expanse" of African dust. I would call that a "pocket of African dust in an otherwise moist environment." Regardless, it sure as heck does not appear to be hindering its development.

[Mac]

And if you look at that SAL map again, you can see that it looks like the storm's outflow is kicking that SAL to the east...almost as though it is venting it like exhaust. I would venture to guess that in another 24 hours you won't see that dry air any more. The storm does not seem to be particularly bothered by what dry air it is encountering. At least not right now.

[skysummit]

Well, the next 24 - 48 hours should tell the story. By then we should see if the ULL ahead of it will move out in time or now and if the shear will decrease in time or not. If it survives the Carribean battle, I do believe we'll be looking at a strong hurricane in the gulf. Then, it could just fall apart and we may be watching that next African wave in a day or two.

[Mac]

Well, the next 24 - 48 hours should tell the story. By then we should see if the ULL ahead of it will move out in time or now and if the shear will decrease in time or not. If it survives the Carribean battle, I do believe we'll be looking at a strong hurricane in the gulf. Then, it could just fall apart and we may be watching that next African wave in a day or two.

Agreed. But if it makes it to the GoM in reasonably good shape, I just don't see it falling apart thereafter. At that point it becomes somebody's problem.

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE 05L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 25

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.0 64.8 280./15.9
6 13.9 65.6 322./12.0
12 14.4 66.8 293./12.3
18 14.8 67.9 288./11.7
24 15.3 69.0 297./11.6
30 16.0 69.8 308./ 9.9
36 16.8 71.0 304./13.9
42 17.1 72.0 286./10.2
48 17.9 72.9 312./12.6
54 19.0 73.7 322./12.9
60 20.3 74.3 337./14.3
66 21.0 75.6 298./14.4
72 21.5 76.8 293./11.9
78 22.0 78.0 293./11.9
84 22.4 78.8 293./ 8.3
90 22.8 79.7 292./ 9.8
96 23.2 81.0 289./12.8
102 23.6 82.2 287./10.7
108 24.1 83.2 295./11.1
114 24.3 84.2 284./ 9.6
120 24.7 85.3 291./ 9.9
126 25.0 86.3 284./ 9.9



6z GFDL

[skysummit]

GFDL still forecasting it toward the central gulf it looks like.