Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The quickscat show a very very sharp wave. In south America is also in the way. I expect that it is not seeing the west wind. Also the area to the south has a hole in the data.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the Gfdl has this system coming pretty close or going right over the Florida Keys

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

the AVN is awfully scary for Floridians too

[Thunder44]

The quickscat show a very very sharp wave. In south America is also in the way. I expect that it is not seeing the west wind. Also the area to the south has a hole in the data.

I think we might be seeing some reforming of the center further SW this morning. The other center that NHC position had in the 5am advisory seems to be dissapating on visible imagery.

[ronjon]

This from the preliminarly long-range discussion at HPC this morning:

AS FOR T.D. 5...MANUAL PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
THEN LATCH ONTO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE NHC TRACK
DAYS 3/MON - 5/WED. THE 00Z ECMWF ALLOWS THE SYS TO MEET A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE TO ITS N DAYS 6/THURS AND 7/FRI...CURVING THE SYS
NNEWD. THE GFS SOLN IS SIMILAR...BUT WEAKER. CLIMATOLOGICAL FAN
BASE ON PAST SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR TPCS DAY 5 POSITION RANGES FROM
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL TX COAST IF THE SYSTEM GETS
THAT FAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW UNTIL MEDR COORD W/TPC LATER TODAY.

If they're leaning towards the Euro, this makes sense as it moves the mid-level ridge eastward off the coast beginning days 4-5 and there's a weakness behind that.

If I were on the northern Gulf coast, I'd be getting a bit more concerned as the trend seems to be more in that direction rather than the straight WNW track which seemed more likely a couple of days ago.

00Z Euro Run. At 168 hrs, has the storm in the north-central gulf approaching LA, MISS, AL, & W FL Pan area! Click on North America hyperlink to get the run below.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 6082500!!/

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Last nights 00z GFS brough ti to Florida (which i thought was suspect) and now the 6Z brings it to mexico..

[cheezyWXguy]

the "center" which seems to be a wave axis this morning, is not underneath the convection by any stretch of the imagination (well, it could be by imagination)

Any reasons behind you saying that? Proof for instance...i dont see an exposed LLC anywhere

[canegrl04]

The models won't reach a general consenses untill it gets into the GOM

[Jim Cantore]

I just woke up to a much healthier looking system then I went to bed to. 24 hours now it's been getting it's act together really well.

[Bailey1777]

Goodmorning KFDM. We talked about this last night. It's just crazy margins we're talking about. Any thoughts?

[KWT]

cheezyWXguy I agree, as I said in the another thread I see very little evidence of a circulation of any sorts that would indicate an open wave outside of the convection. What I did think I saw a few hours ago was a circulation at lower levels push out of the western section of the convection but that died away over the previous couple of hours so it probably wasn't the real center.

I wouldn't be suprise dif it had multiple centers in a broad circulation.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The quickscat shows the sharpest and strongest they have ever shown for this. They are likely missing the west winds. We will see when the recon gets into them.

[Dean4Storms]

Qscat has a hard time finding west winds in a fast moving TD.

[gatorcane]

cheezyWXguy I agree, as I said in the another thread I see very little evidence of a circulation of any sorts that would indicate an open wave outside of the convection. What I did think I saw a few hours ago was a circulation at lower levels push out of the western section of the convection but that died away over the previous couple of hours so it probably wasn't the real center.

I wouldn't be suprise dif it had multiple centers in a broad circulation.

and where the eventual center forms is KEY to the track. A more northern center would take it farther north possibly into Florida. A more southern center would take it farther south into maybe the Yucatan

[Stormcenter]

It still looks ragged to me even with the convection and the shear ahead of it looks vicious. I'm not sold just yet on TD5 making it into the GOM as an organized syetem.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Last nights 00z GFS brough ti to Florida (which i thought was suspect) and now the 6Z brings it to mexico..

I don't see how this would go to Mexico as opposed to being pulled northward. Texas and the the northern tip of Mexico maybe...

[Thunder44]

993
WHXX01 KWBC 251258
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052006) ON 20060825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 1200 060826 0000 060826 1200 060827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 65.9W 14.2N 67.8W 15.2N 69.8W 16.4N 72.0W
BAMM 13.4N 65.9W 14.2N 68.2W 15.1N 70.5W 16.2N 72.8W
A98E 13.4N 65.9W 13.9N 68.6W 14.7N 71.0W 16.0N 73.3W
LBAR 13.4N 65.9W 14.1N 68.4W 15.1N 70.9W 16.2N 73.3W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 1200 060828 1200 060829 1200 060830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 74.3W 18.8N 78.9W 18.7N 84.0W 18.9N 89.1W
BAMM 17.4N 75.3W 19.2N 80.2W 20.2N 84.9W 20.9N 89.4W
A98E 17.4N 75.7W 19.6N 81.2W 21.2N 86.8W 22.5N 91.7W
LBAR 17.3N 75.8W 19.9N 80.2W 21.2N 84.1W 22.2N 88.4W
SHIP 59KTS 75KTS 83KTS 87KTS
DSHP 59KTS 74KTS 82KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 65.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 63.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 60.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$

[dwg71]

Last nights 00z GFS brough ti to Florida (which i thought was suspect) and now the 6Z brings it to mexico..

I don't see how this would go to Mexico as opposed to being pulled northward. Texas and the the northern tip of Mexico maybe...

It very well could go to mexico... twice, Yuc and then to Northern coast. Its very plausible.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Goodmorning KFDM. We talked about this last night. It's just crazy margins we're talking about. Any thoughts?

Still way to early to say where?

[Trugunzn]

Wow just waking up and seeing this. Nice convection blowing up over center. Looks like the upper level feauture is about to close off or it has and start moving west, given it later on a better outflow. With the very low shear next couple days and the high heat content i wouldnt be surprise if we do have atleast a major cane in the Gulf. Right not I agree with NHC's track.