Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Dean4Storms]

Last nights 00z GFS brough ti to Florida (which i thought was suspect) and now the 6Z brings it to mexico..

I suspect with the GFS showing a shallow system it is playing into the more southern track. I think this is going to cause the models to flip back and forth until we see whether TD 5 survives in the central Carib.

[Bailey1777]

I didn't mean landfall thoughts I meant why the models are changing by thousands of miles in a very short period.

[dwg71]

Wow just waking up and seeing this. Nice convection blowing up over center. Looks like the upper level feauture is about to close off or it has and start moving west, given it later on a better outflow. With the very low shear next couple days and the high heat content i wouldnt be surprise if we do have atleast a major cane in the Gulf. Right not I agree with NHC's track.

Read NHC discussion, and a few pro met posts, its encountering shear and will continue to over the next couple of days

[gatorcane]

I didn't mean landfall thoughts I meant why the models are changing by thousands of miles in a very short period.

What do you expect there is no center yet. How can the models be consistent without an initialization (in computer terms uninitialized variables cause random behavior).

That track will probably flip-flop back and forth so don't go by that track quite yet.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052006) ON 20060825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 1200 060826 0000 060826 1200 060827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 65.9W 14.2N 67.8W 15.2N 69.8W 16.4N 72.0W
BAMM 13.4N 65.9W 14.2N 68.2W 15.1N 70.5W 16.2N 72.8W
A98E 13.4N 65.9W 13.9N 68.6W 14.7N 71.0W 16.0N 73.3W
LBAR 13.4N 65.9W 14.1N 68.4W 15.1N 70.9W 16.2N 73.3W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 1200 060828 1200 060829 1200 060830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 74.3W 18.8N 78.9W 18.7N 84.0W 18.9N 89.1W
BAMM 17.4N 75.3W 19.2N 80.2W 20.2N 84.9W 20.9N 89.4W
A98E 17.4N 75.7W 19.6N 81.2W 21.2N 86.8W 22.5N 91.7W
LBAR 17.3N 75.8W 19.9N 80.2W 21.2N 84.1W 22.2N 88.4W
SHIP 59KTS 75KTS 83KTS 87KTS
DSHP 59KTS 74KTS 82KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 65.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 63.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 60.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



A little more slower foward speed 14kts.

[Stormcenter]

The shear "may" again be our savior.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like the Gfdl has this system coming pretty close or going right over the Florida Keys

if that track were to verify easter cooba could do a great deal of damabge to the system. i suspect this system will stay south of cooba.

[Jim Cantore]

TS at 11 I think

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs 200 millibar maps shows the tutt moving to 75-77 west in 24 hours. In weaking some. The LLC looks to be about 65.5 west...So the Anticyclone should build over the cyclone.

[caneman]

That is a lot slower Cyc. Roughly 16 mph now down from 20 mph. which will help keep space between it and the ULL. This is concerning and would lead one to suspect the models with the more Northerly/Stronger system route may be right and have a better handle on things.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Shear looks to be effecting the storm. On the last few frames of the IR loop it is evident.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like the Gfdl has this system coming pretty close or going right over the Florida Keys

if that track were to verify easter cooba could do a great deal of damabge to the system. i suspect this system will stay south of cooba.

If it makes there in one piece.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Gfdl has this system coming pretty close or going right over the Florida Keys

if that track were to verify easter cooba could do a great deal of damabge to the system. i suspect this system will stay south of cooba.

If it makes there in one piece.

once the system made it back over the warm Florida straits it would take no time to regenerate. You can't rely on Cuba saving Florida...its a small island albeit with large mountains on the eastern side.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The wall of shear is at 72 west...With a Anticyclone forming over the system now. 10-20 knots decrease over system. 10 knot area increasing in size. The gfs shows this wall going to 77 west by 24 hours. If this slow system slow down then this will get its act together.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[gatorcane]

The wall of shear is at 72 west...With a Anticyclone forming over the system now. 10-20 knots decrease over system. 10 knot area increasing in size. The gfs shows this wall going to 77 west by 24 hours. If this slow system slow down then this will get its act together.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

if it slows down then how will the track be impacted. I would guess higher chances of staying on a more WNW to NW track.

[Dave C]

Latest Infrared loop shows the deep convection is not moving as quickly to the west as earlier as the shear impacts the system. There is the typical sharp edge to the west part of the convection from the shear while the east part has a more rounded appearence. This will definately need to be a fighter to survive today.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The wall of shear is at 72 west...With a Anticyclone forming over the system now. 10-20 knots decrease over system. 10 knot area increasing in size. The gfs shows this wall going to 77 west by 24 hours. If this slow system slow down then this will get its act together.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

if it slows down then how will the track be impacted. I would guess higher chances of staying on a more WNW to NW track.

I Expect it to slow to a crawl and tease the hell out of all of us...Just like every other Carribaen storm...

[dwg71]

If it doesnt get a name at 11AM, I dont think it will get one for at least 24 hours.

[jlauderdal]

I didn't mean landfall thoughts I meant why the models are changing by thousands of miles in a very short period.

What do you expect there is no center yet. How can the models be consistent without an initialization (in computer terms uninitialized variables cause random behavior).

That track will probably flip-flop back and forth so don't go by that track quite yet.

huh, there is a center, if there wasnt it wouldnt be classified. hurricanes 101.

[skysummit]

LOL....these posts are getting hilarious. Half the board is saying this will have a hard time surving the shear today and the other half says it's getting better organized with high pressure building aloft.