Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5
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- AtlanticWind
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wxman57 wrote:I got some new 12Z model data plotted now - no more 6z models. I think we're pretty sure about the track over the next 3-4 days. But confidence is VERY LOW where it may strike on the Gulf coast. Anywhere from northern Mexico to the FL Panhandle is possible.
So do you believe it will survive any shear that may impact it and make it into the GOM as a hurricane?
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KatDaddy wrote:Outflow boundaries pushing outward on the NW and N side of TD 5. Shear will begin taking its toll on TD 5.......poof on the way.........
That is too be expected since the TUTT is just to North and West. There is plenty of inflow coming from the South and West. There will be no rapid intensification but no "poof" either.
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Looks like we will not have a TS at 11AM...going to have to wait for recon which will fly in the next forecast cycle (this afternoon). I would guess they are waiting to see if the deep thunderstorms are over the center as opposed to sitting on the northeastern edge of it.
MW
MW
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Shear the only limiting factor at this time...
Shear the only limiting factor at this time...if TD 5 exists on Sat evening in a state of organization similar to, or any better than, what we see this morning, we believe an intense Hurricane Ernesto will threaten the Central/Western US Gulf Coast late next week. I'm happy to respond to specific inquiries.
Last edited by NESDIS Met on Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Air Force Met wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=479&tstamp=200608 Jeff masters thinks we have Ernesto
Well officially Jeff Masters is incorrect...we'll have to wait for a plane.
The center is very hard to find.
Chad Myers at CNN just a little while also thought it would be named at 11am.
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wxman57 wrote:I got some new 12Z model data plotted now - no more 6z models. I think we're pretty sure about the track over the next 3-4 days. But confidence is VERY LOW where it may strike on the Gulf coast. Anywhere from northern Mexico to the FL Panhandle is possible.
I want to thank you wxman57 for taking your extra time to post these and keep up with the boards along with your busy life. Thanks to all the pro mets. You are all really helpful and I enjoy reading your posts and opinions.
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MWatkins wrote:Looks like we will not have a TS at 11AM...going to have to wait for recon which will fly in the next forecast cycle (this afternoon). I would guess they are waiting to see if the deep thunderstorms are over the center as opposed to sitting on the northeastern edge of it.
MW
What makes you come up to that conclusion.
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- cycloneye
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The speculation about if at 11 AM it will be upgraded or not will end in a few minutes.My guess is that and yes I am speculating now
they will wait for recon this afternoon.

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Thunder44 wrote:Air Force Met wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=479&tstamp=200608 Jeff masters thinks we have Ernesto
Well officially Jeff Masters is incorrect...we'll have to wait for a plane.
The center is very hard to find.
Chad Myers at CNN just a little while also thought it would be named at 11am.
Well...Chad Myers is wrong too, it won't be.
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