Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Derek Ortt]

I see the UL to the nroth having a possible influence. Of course since GFS has not satellite datain the model, it misses this feature

[Windsurfer_NYC]

still a depression at 11AM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM...

[robbielyn]

People, people, people.....The only reason we're not saying it will be upgraded is because NO ONE knows where the center is!!!! If you can find a center over the convection, its a TS...But no one can find one; therefore, being as conservative as the NHC is, they will NOT upgrade it at this time until they have official word from recon!!!!

Geesh, you don't have to yell at us or anything. Lol. But seriously, it is nice to know why they won't upgrade it. I think this will make it unfortunately. I have a hard time believing this will be torn apart like Chris was. I truly fear for the gulf coast. Hope this is a mexico storm if it has to be a storm at all.

[Air Force Met]

People, people, people.....The only reason we're not saying it will be upgraded is because NO ONE knows where the center is!!!! If you can find a center over the convection, its a TS...But no one can find one; therefore, being as conservative as the NHC is, they will NOT upgrade it at this time until they have official word from recon!!!!

And that is EXACTLY correct.

Go to the head of the class.

[mj]

About the ridge saving Fla. I'll believe it when I see it. Living here in Cape Coral all week the rain has been coming in from the west. Right now it is dark to my west and for several days the local mets where saying the pattern would return to normal, ie.. rain from the southeast. This started last weekend and still has not come to be. Not saying it wont happen but that pattern has set up a few more times than normal for us this summer, so I quess we'll see. I am not a pro but I do know what I see.

[Steve]

>>Also see matt-hurricane watcher's post from earlier today about the same thought.

I'll give him another chance. I haven't read anything he's posted in about two weeks after spewing a bunch of anti-Louisiana filth that wasn't even rooted in reality. Matt jumps back to his old ways sometimes, but every now and then he'll put something out worth reading. So I guess I'll go check it out with my fingers crossed.

Steve

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

looks like a storm that is tightening up pretty rapidly to me

the CDO in a storm as small (IN SIZE) like this is very small and the center may be hard to pinpoint but this is a tropical storm now and i can't be the only one that can see this (maybe they have to wait for an eye to find the center)

[miamicanes177]

This has not strengthened according to the NHC.

[jlauderdal]

About the ridge saving Fla. I'll believe it when I see it. Living here in Cape Coral all week the rain has been coming in from the west. Right now it is dark to my west and for several days the local mets where saying the pattern would return to normal, ie.. rain from the southeast. This started last weekend and still has not come to be. Not saying it wont happen but that pattern has set up a few more times than normal for us this summer, so I quess we'll see. I am not a pro but I do know what I see.

yes and our rain has been coming in the sw flow and this weekend we are going to flip flop and send you our convective activity in the afternoons.

[Portastorm]

My bad, my bad ... it was skysummit and not Matt. Check out skysummit's post in this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=240

Sorry.

[jhamps10]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

looks like a storm that is tightening up pretty rapidly to me

the CDO in a storm as small (IN SIZE) like this is very small and the center may be hard to pinpoint but this is a tropical storm now and i can't be the only one that can see this (maybe they have to wait for an eye to find the center)

I agree somewhat, yes this storm is tightening up, but it does not look like a rapid tightening here, I would take a big bet that the reason that NHC didn't upgrade is 2 fold, 1 as already posted, the center is difficult to find, and that recon is supposed to be there in 3 hours or so, and will have a full amount of info for the 5PM advisory.

[Windtalker1]

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
760 MILES...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Slowed down, expected to move WNW with in 24 hours, UUL moving West faster which will cut down on the sheer, Strong cold front moving into the South by Sunday........Everyone from N Texas to Florida needs to watch this system.

[stormernie]

We will have to wait for recon, I still believe the center is North or Northeast of the 11 AM location.

[ConvergenceZone]

SHIPS insists that the shear will relax by this time tomorrow, but I find that extremely hard to believe

by looking at the shear maps, I agree with you Derek, not sure how they are coming up with that.

[jusforsean]

My bad, my bad ... it was skysummit and not Matt. Check out skysummit's post in this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=240

Sorry.

Thanks: you had me scrollin thru i finally gave up Interesting post and thought so where would that dangerous set up put us?????

[Mac]

I see the UL to the nroth having a possible influence. Of course since GFS has not satellite datain the model, it misses this feature

So....Derek....are you saying you'd like to rethink your answer to me yesterday about your degree of confidence in the SHIPs shear forecast??? LOL

[cpdaman]

jhamps10

your right of course, but i guess they could come out with a special tropical statement anytime one of there pro mets says "hey look here is the center"

[mj]

About the ridge saving Fla. I'll believe it when I see it. Living here in Cape Coral all week the rain has been coming in from the west. Right now it is dark to my west and for several days the local mets where saying the pattern would return to normal, ie.. rain from the southeast. This started last weekend and still has not come to be. Not saying it wont happen but that pattern has set up a few more times than normal for us this summer, so I quess we'll see. I am not a pro but I do know what I see.

yes and our rain has been coming in the sw flow and this weekend we are going to flip flop and send you our convective activity in the afternoons.

I hope so but like I said this was supposed to start last Tues. or something and has not yet. For our sake I hope that the flow returns to "normal".

[boca]

Its tough for TD5 to survive all the shear in this El Nino type conditions were having this season,but politically speaking were in neutral conditions yeah right.

[Derek Ortt]

I have more confidence that Iran is not seeking nukes than I have in ANY SHIPS shear forecast