Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[NONAME]

Bad news though it is slowing down from like 22-23 mph i think yesterday when they classified it to 15mph now that is a big difference. That could help the storm intesifiy by not causing as much shear or running into the TUTT

[Javlin]

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
760 MILES...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Slowed down, expected to move WNW with in 24 hours, UUL moving West faster which will cut down on the sheer, Strong cold front moving into the South by Sunday........Everyone from N Texas to Florida needs to watch this system.

If thats the case then there is no way then that TD5 could get caught between the two ULLs sufficiently.I mean a standard rule of thumb is that you usually want to keep 10' between systems or other wise they start competing for air space for lack of a better analogy.Well I was way off on my thoughts of Chris and the TUTT that dived on it.Thinking Chris would outrun it.It's a waiting game.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I live on west coast florida and for much of the summer we had the our seabreeze clash in the afternoon with the east coast seabreeze making its way all the way across the state. This setup lets me know when teh ridge is in place. This week though, our weather has been steadily coming from the west and southwest across the gulf and those thunderstorms traversing the state generally from west to east. The storms were caused mostly from the ULL that was sitting and spinning in the gulf as it drifted to the wsw away from us. The weather si still coming from the gulf today. That means the ridge is not currently strong, at least over the west central part fo the state RIGHT NOW. In a few days, we are supposed to return to a "more normal" pattern, which I expect that means a return of the ridge, but it is not supposed to be strong. We aren't expecting the east coast seabreeze to make it all the way to the west coast. Then towards the end of the week next week, the call is for increased rain pops and the possibility of a return to the reverse pattern... which indicates another retrograding High off the east coast.

In fact, isn't that the setup that thsi season was supposed to be? They were predicting that the Ridges/High were going to position off the east coast, allowing cape verde storms the ability to follow the perimeter of the high righ tinto the east coast or become fish storms. That doesn't happen with an established ridge over the southeast states and atlantic. Looks lkie the pattern is setting up how they thought it would wthis season. Fo rour sakes in FL, lets hope that the predicted setup doesn't happen until TD5 has already decided to head west!

[ConvergenceZone]

Actually, after reading what Jeff Masters and others have said, I'm changing my tune on this and I want it to fall apart. It's like feast or famine it seems. If shear gets to it, it will destroy it, otherwise more than likely it may be a dangerous hurricane in the gulf(which I dont' want to see).

I was hoping just for a strong tropical storm minimal hurricane perhaps since it wasn't going to be a fish...

[Steve]

>>Its tough for TD5 to survive all the shear in this El Nino type conditions were having this season,but politically speaking were in neutral conditions yeah right.

We are. One of the signals just happened yesterday which was the TUTT splitting off. They don't split very often in strong El Ninos and TUTTs (as well as other trofs) split all the time in La Nina patterns. It's just an observation over the years, nothing rooted in anything anyone's ever confirmed for me.

Steve

[Brent]

From the discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13...SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR
THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72-96 HR. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH
OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER CUBA. SOME SPREAD APPEARS
IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS BUILDING THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...THEN
SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERHAPS BECOMING LESS TRICKY. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD
AND ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
KNOWN TO MOVE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TOO QUICKLY WESTWARD...IT WOULD
REDUCE THE CURRENT 15-20 KT SHEAR AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 60 HR AND REACH 87 KT BY 120 HR. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST...CALLING FOR
THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...IF THE
SHEAR DECREASES AS MUCH AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.

[skysummit]

Yea...read that last paragraph of the disco.

[KWT]

Intresting discussion from the NHc. i personally think this is presently a multiple center system with centers circulating around the main broad center however the center that is deeper embedded nito the convection will eventually become the main one simply because its in the best place right now.

[miamicanes177]

I'm going to say that if the models are correct and the shear drops in the W. Caribbean then this will enter the gulf as a cat 4 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Yea...read that last paragraph of the disco.

The most important words that matter and by the wording they expect less ahear.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm going to say that if the models are correct and the shear drops in the W. Caribbean then this will enter the gulf as a cat 4 hurricane.

I agree..Big week coming

[jhamps10]

From the discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13...SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR
THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72-96 HR. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH
OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER CUBA. SOME SPREAD APPEARS
IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS BUILDING THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...THEN
SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERHAPS BECOMING LESS TRICKY. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD
AND ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
KNOWN TO MOVE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TOO QUICKLY WESTWARD...IT WOULD
REDUCE THE CURRENT 15-20 KT SHEAR AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 60 HR AND REACH 87 KT BY 120 HR. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST...CALLING FOR
THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...IF THE
SHEAR DECREASES AS MUCH AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.

That makes me worried, This storm could go nuts quickly and NHC appears to be VERY worried.

[Derek Ortt]

but it still assumes that we still have a TC, of which there is some doubt

[Aquawind]

Looking at the Latest visable I do see less of the center that was on the edge of the convection this moning. Looks like it could be a relocation and yes towards the deeper convection.. Recon Please!

[Lowpressure]

I'm going to say that if the models are correct and the shear drops in the W. Caribbean then this will enter the gulf as a cat 4 hurricane.

I have a hard time seeing this become a cat 4, too much going on in the upper levels. Strong 2 or maybe a 3, but I would say solid 2 through the Gulf only a 3 if it crosses loop.

[Javlin]

Yea...read that last paragraph of the disco.

Yea I see it SKY just cannot see TD5 in between two ULs yet.One somewhere in the vicinty yea and in the correct Quad do not know yet.

[fci]

Sure sounds like they are opening the door for this to strenghten A LOT but also continue west for a while.

Maybe it will not be the Gulf Cost threat that we all feared and instead slam into Eastern Mexico hopefully into an under-populated , desolate area.

Hope so.

However, the curve on the models last nght showing this coming towards Florida seems to have waned upon further review. This has happened a lot in the past where models show this curve up into Cuba and then they back off.

I remember the same situation with Ivan where while he was in the Southeast and Central Carib, they had a sharp right turn toward Central Cuba and South Fla and then the models gradually came off this.

Of course that is the only similarity that I would like to see with Ivan and I can't see this following a similar course at all.

I vote for the west track and a visit to Mexico..

[Lowpressure]

Looking at the Latest visable I do see less of the center that was on the edge of the convection this moning. Looks like it could be a relocation and yes towards the deeper convection.. Recon Please!

Noticed same thing on Navy site, looks like relo or a lot less hostile environment currently. Relo to the NE would impact models pretty hard. Models would have a difficult time with possible land interaction and distance from ULL in western carib. Could get quite interesting later with recon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see a flow into around 65.5 west about under the MLC. If it forms there this will be stacked. In ready to go...Plus as the nhc noted it would be moving slower given it a better chance to stay away from the tutt.

[cpdaman]

looks like something around 13.1 or 13.2/ 65.4 west

slow down animation and look at the last few hours especially

(if it wasn't for the banding features on the east north and west sides i may think my eyes were playing tricks on me) but it appears to me the LLC is at 13.1/.2 65.4 west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html