Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
MAINTAINED CONVECTION IN A SOMEWHAT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A BLEND OF
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.0 OR 30 KT. BASED
UPON THIS INFORMATION AS WELL AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30
KT MAXIMUM WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LAST SIX
HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON A WESTERLY TRACK
BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM ON A
STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN CUBA IN 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON A COMPLICATED
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO SPLIT FROM A SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG 25N
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTACT AND MOVE IT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5
DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO MIGHT KEEP SOME SOUTHERLY
SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND
GFDL MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FASTER TO THE WEST...CREATING
A MUCH WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT DAYS
3 TO 5. ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO
A HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM OVER CUBA BUT THE SHIPS FORECAST CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD
TOWARD THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.2N 63.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.7N 66.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.5N 68.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 71.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 73.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 17.5N 77.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 81.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 22.0N 85.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[cycloneye]

[pojo]

isnt there only one plane foreward deployed right now? which would mean only one crew? then if it developed they would get another crew and plane out there, right?

I personally know the hurricane hunter folks... I'm in the process of becoming one... you have to be specific.... to military personnel...foreward deployed is the desert.... Yes there are planes away from Keesler.... during the season, one plane is in the Caribbean.

These missions are highly complex... briefings for several hours... its not just a 'show time' is schooling time... then you have to prep the planes for flight....

[Rainband]

isnt there only one plane foreward deployed right now? which would mean only one crew? then if it developed they would get another crew and plane out there, right?

I personally know the hurricane hunter folks... I'm in the process of becoming one... you have to be specific.... to military personnel...foreward deployed is the desert.... Yes there are planes away from Keesler.... during the season, one plane is in the Caribbean.

These missions are highly complex... briefings for several hours... its not just a 'show time' is schooling time... then you have to prep the planes for flight....

Nice to see you Shannon (((HUGS)))

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 25, 2006


...Depression almost a tropical storm...

at 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Five was
located near latitude 13.4 north...longitude 65.7 west or about 345
miles...560 km... south of San Juan Puerto Rico.

The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph and a motion
generally toward the west-northwest with some decrease in forward
speed is expected for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure from ship observations is
1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches can be expected in
association with the depression across portions of the Windward
Islands... Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Repeating the 500 am AST position...13.4 N...65.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila

[Thunder44]

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 3

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 25, 2006



despite westerly shear... the tropical depression appears to be
approaching tropical storm strength. Deep convection has
intensified near the center with improving banding features in the
eastern semicircle. However it appears the center is on the
western edge of the thunderstorms... as suggested by a notch in the
deep convection pattern on night-vis satellite images. Satellite
classifications range from 35-45 kt but are a little closer to the
center of the deep convection. With the uncertainity in initial
position.. 30 kt will be kept until visible images allow US to get
a better handle on where the system is located.

The track forecast seems like the easier part of the forecast this
morning. The depression is speeding westward at about the same
rate... 280/17. Middle-level ridging should remain strong over
the western Atlantic Ocean... keeping the system moving in a
general west to west-northwestward heading for the next couple of
days. The NOGAPS/UKMET show stronger ridging and a weaker
tropical cyclone... leading to a track closer to Yucatan in about 5
days. The GFS and GFDL temporarily weaken the ridge in a few
days... which allow a stronger system to move to the northwest
closer to Cuba. I'm inclined to stick closer to the first option
... Leading to a small westward shift of the track forecast.

The intensity forecast is tricky to say the least. First of all...
the system has to survive the strong westerly shear it will be
experiencing for the next day or two. This is by no means certain
and it wouldn't be a huge surprise for the depression to dissipate
in the "graveyard" of the eastern Caribbean Sea... like some of the
global models are forecasting. However...if the tropical cyclone
survives...and this is a big if...global models remove the shear by
fracturing the mid-oceanic trough in the western Caribbean. This
pattern change sends an upper-level low into the Gulf of Mexico in
3 days while building upper ridging near the depression. This could
allow the system to strengthen especially as it enters the western
Caribbean. On the other hand... global models have notoriously
weakened upper-level cyclones too quickly in the past and the
mid-oceanic trough has been quite persistent and stronger-than-
normal in that area this season. After saying all this... the
intensity forecast will be quite similar to previous. However if
the low shear environment the global models are forecasting
materializes in the western Caribbean... TD five could be a lot
stronger than shown below in the later periods.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/0900z 13.4n 65.7w 30 kt
12hr VT 25/1800z 13.9n 67.8w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/0600z 14.8n 70.4w 40 kt
36hr VT 26/1800z 15.6n 72.8w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/0600z 16.5n 75.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 28/0600z 18.5n 79.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 29/0600z 21.0n 84.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 30/0600z 23.5n 87.5w 65 kt

$$
forecaster Blake/Avila

[tropicsgal05]

I have a question about shear. If this TD5 gets strong enough and becomes a TS today, can it get past the shear?

[bostonseminole]

the next recon is at 2:00 pm EST correct?

[HURAKAN]

the next recon is at 2:00 pm EST correct?

YEP!!! It will probably be there earlier. The system is close to St. Croix so the fly shouldn't take two hours to reach the storm.

[bostonseminole]

the next recon is at 2:00 pm EST correct?

YEP!!! It will probably be there earlier. The system is close to St. Croix so the fly shouldn't take two hours to reach the storm.

to bad I am sleeping at that time

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 66.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 66.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.2N 68.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.0N 71.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.9N 73.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.9N 76.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 66.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM...

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
760 MILES...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DUTCH
NETHERLAND ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N...66.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

671
WTNT45 KNHC 251457
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS VERY HARD TO LOCATE THIS
MORNING. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED WEST OF THE LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS. HOWEVER...A
12Z OBSERVATION FROM SHIP 6ZXG SUGGEST THE CENTER IS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS NOT YET
HELPED RESOLVE THIS...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE CLOSER TO THAT OF THE
MICROWAVE DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35-45 KT...
BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION THE CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN A DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13...SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR
THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72-96 HR. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH
OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER CUBA. SOME SPREAD APPEARS
IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS BUILDING THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...THEN
SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERHAPS BECOMING LESS TRICKY. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD
AND ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
KNOWN TO MOVE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TOO QUICKLY WESTWARD...IT WOULD
REDUCE THE CURRENT 15-20 KT SHEAR AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 60 HR AND REACH 87 KT BY 120 HR. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST...CALLING FOR
THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...IF THE
SHEAR DECREASES AS MUCH AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS
THE CENTER IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 13.5N 66.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.2N 68.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 71.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 73.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.9N 76.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 19.0N 80.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.5N 84.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 23.5N 87.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Plan of the Day

Above is the latest plan of the day.

[Bailey1777]

Those coordinates look off.

[Brent]

Those coordinates look off.

Those are for tomorrow.

[Bailey1777]

That would be why. What's happened to my attention to detail?

[NONAME]

Shouldn't Recon be leaving very very soon.

[jhamps10]

bumb for new recon mission that should be leaving at any time now.