TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[skysummit]

Well recon has confirmed we have TS Ernesto. So someone can now change the title to reflect this breaking news.

Until there's something official from the NHC it's not.

Correct...there's nothing official yet. Just because they found TS winds does not mean they'll upgrade it. It's not in too good of shape right now.

[Derek Ortt]

there has been nothing official from NHC

[storms in NC]

With the High in th gulf and to the west I don't see this going to the high. Does it move away from Highs? That is what I have always been told.

[gatorcane]

With the High in th gulf and to the west I don't see this going to the high. Does it move away from Highs? That is what I have always been told.

What highs? The highs are weak my friend, look how far the cold front in the deep south made it.....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When did they change that the system had to be in good shaped to be upgraded? Alberto or Arlene where not in good shape. Heck Arlene had its 40 mph winds found 200 miles from the center. As far as I can tell this is a tropical storm. Unless I'm going crazy?

[KWT]

It's in poor shape indeed right now...however it has high enough winds and a closed LLC, thats should be enough for an upgrade, because if Chris could be a TS with a compeltely naked swirl then this system should also be upped to a TS based on the NHC on standards.

Its a TS right now however as others have said the shear is giving it a hard time and i wouldn't bet on it being a TS tommorow!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Still alot of shear ahead of the TD. Water Vapor shows that nicely..

[Bailey1777]

KFDM or AFM is this the beginning of the end?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Wouldn't say that just yet but it's obivous on WV the shear ahead of it.

[gatorcane]

Still alot of shear ahead of the TD. Water Vapor shows that nicely..

Thanks KFDM, that is what I am trying to say. The shear is very intense just west of TD #5 caused by guess what, a big TUTT low that is finally retreating west but I think it is still going to get TD #5 and dissipate it.

Why do you think the GFS loses it???? That is why I think

[Bailey1777]

But isn't their center position basically an exposed LLC?

[gatorcane]

I sense a poof like Chris here....in about 24 hours.

[gatorcane]

What I think is amazing (and sorry for all of the posts here) is that we finally get something going but the TUTT JUST happens to move west this time and looks like will crush this thing as well.

Thank the TUTT lows of 2006 - they are amazing.

[WxGuy1]

A link for those that don't have it -- Wind shear analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Yes, that shows more than 50kts of shear over the central Caribbean! Shear tendency analysis shows that shear has increased over 20kts there in the past day... TD5 MUST slow down if it is going to survive.

[jasons2k]

Today has been nothing but a roller coaster. It looks better, no it's getting sheared. Recon finds TS winds, but the LLC is racing out and the temp. profile is bad (at least for TD#5). It's an open wave OR a TS, but it's still "officially" a TD. The models have shifted east - it's going to Florida - no, wait, the models have shifted west, its going to Mexico. The shear is relaxing and the ULL is pulling away - it's going to intensify now - no wait, it clearly has shear on the water vapor and it's going to fall apart.



Maybe I should just login again on Monday. This is just crazy, even for a new, weak system, it takes the cake.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

i thought everyone was saying that it had slowed way down to like 12-15mph? 1/2 the speed it was going before???

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I like when models "lose systems" 90% of the time they dissipate.

[Blown Away]

New GFDL pointing towards FL Panhandle for now instead of NE Texas area. I wonder if we will see an E trend, maybe due to the decrease in forward speed.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Today has been nothing but a roller coaster. It looks better, no it's getting sheared. Recon finds TS winds, but the LLC is racing out and the temp. profile is bad (at least for TD#5). It's an open wave OR a TS, but it's still "officially" a TD. The models have shifted east - it's going to Florida - no, wait, the models have shifted west, its going to Mexico. The shear is relaxing and the ULL is pulling away - it's going to intensify now - no wait, it clearly has shear on the water vapor and it's going to fall apart.



Maybe I should just login again on Monday. This is just crazy, even for a new, weak system, it takes the cake.

I agree, this may go down as one of the most frustrating seasons EVER....I've never ever seen anything like this before...I've never seen the national hurricane center wrong so many times. I'm not blaming them, just stating how damn frustrating this season is even during the peak season(for them too) when conditions suppose to be much much better for development...

[storms in NC]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

It shows a the highs in the gulf and over Mexco. Click on fronts on the loop. It may be a weak high. But I was asking cause I didn't know.Storms go around highs but never into a high Right?