TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

#161 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:56 pm

Blown_away wrote:New GFDL pointing towards FL Panhandle for now instead of NE Texas area. I wonder if we will see an E trend, maybe due to the decrease in forward speed.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

LOL...we're not too sure we'll have anything to track now! :lol:

Derek Ortt · #162 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:56 pm

even the Canadian has backed way off in terms of development

glad I did not forecast anything significant until it hit the NW Caribbean and even this is in doubt now

Trugunzn · #163 Postby **Trugunzn** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:56 pm

all you guys are mixed up up right now even pro mets. We go from talking big storm in couple days to it is a open wave and going to die in shear. Theres some people say shear is getting worse over it and then some say its getting better and looking better. Lets wait and what happens. I still it has a good chance.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #164 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:57 pm

A new LLC may still form under the MLC or closer to the convection
Probably will remain a TD for another 24 hours though, unless
this happens quickly...then it may be a TS sooner.
Or the shear could force it to dissipate.

It's too early to tell. I really do not know what is going to happen.
I will, however, offer an analysis into what I think is going
on with Ernesto based on observations and synoptic/atmospheric
features.

It seems an area of energy associated with the system has
been translating into convection and then off-and-on
diminishing somewhat due to shear...
This energy a combination of heat and moisture
energy associated with the system and governing its
thermodynamics.

Dissipation is possible, but so is a chance for strengthening depending
on how the atmospheric dynamics set-up with regard to shear and
the TUTT's progress its westward movement, the TUTT's location,
and the TUTT's impact on the system.

#165 Postby **Wthrman13** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:58 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:A link for those that don't have it -- Wind shear analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Yes, that shows more than 50kts of shear over the central Caribbean! Shear tendency analysis shows that shear has increased over 20kts there in the past day... TD5 MUST slow down if it is going to survive.

Yep, but if you look at the shear tendency map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

You can see a distinct dipole of shear tendency over the Caribbean, with decreasing shear near and just west of TD 5, and increasing shear in the western Caribbean. This suggest to me that the UL is indeed starting to move west, and taking the worst shear with it. If it does it fast enough, TD 5 may just make it.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #166 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:59 pm

ConvergenceZone, I agree...But 1997 was a bad one to.(If you like to track storms) But at least that year we had a major with a few other hurricanes. In yes the nhc has not gotten alot right so far(Chris). I'm not bashing them because that was a very very tricky forecastl. But noting it.

#167 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:00 pm

there is hope, if the georiga low weakens the ridge and the system moves north!

#168 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:02 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:there is hope, if the georiga low weakens the ridge and the system moves north!

how is that hope?? :grr:

Derek Ortt · #169 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:02 pm

models have flat out missed the UL at 25N and 65W

#170 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:02 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:models have flat out missed the UL at 25N and 65W

interesting - that means the chances of TD #5 being crushed by the TUTT low has significantly increased does it not?

stormernie · #171 Postby **stormernie** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:03 pm

I'll tell you one thing - this storm has a vigiours MLC...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #172 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:04 pm

Before this gets chrushed by any tutt I hope this gets a name, It would be a crying shame for a system that is a tropical storm not to get one.

#173 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:05 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:there is hope, if the georiga low weakens the ridge and the system moves north!

how is that hope??

1. i ment hope for somthing to track

2. the islands should limit some devolpment if it comes for the USA.

#174 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:05 pm

personally I think it is hitting the wall of shear and "looks" to be slowing down when in reality the shear is starting to blow the cloud tops east now.

Mac · #175 Postby **Mac** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:05 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:A link for those that don't have it -- Wind shear analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Yes, that shows more than 50kts of shear over the central Caribbean! Shear tendency analysis shows that shear has increased over 20kts there in the past day... TD5 MUST slow down if it is going to survive.

Yep, but if you look at the shear tendency map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

You can see a distinct dipole of shear tendency over the Caribbean, with decreasing shear near and just west of TD 5, and increasing shear in the western Caribbean. This suggest to me that the UL is indeed starting to move west, and taking the worst shear with it. If it does it fast enough, TD 5 may just make it.

With all due respect (and I do mean that sincerely), how are the shear tendency maps going to tell us what the shear is going to do TOMORROW, or the day after that. Last I saw, the NHC was forecasting the shear to diminish (although they did not state any high degree of confidence in it happening). Yes, shear has been a problem all season. But the TUTT does appear to be retreating. It's just not clear how quickly it will retreat. And with the TUTT retreating, I believe the shear will retreat as well. I agree that the shear may be a problem in the short term, but this storm seems a little persistent to me. I likewise think it may just hang in there and strengthen as it approaches the GoM.

miamicanes177 · #176 Postby **miamicanes177** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:05 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Before this gets chrushed by any tutt I hope this gets a name, It would be a crying shame for a system that is a tropical storm not to get one.

dont count on this being named. Storms now must have deep convection wrapped all the way around the LLC to even be considered for an upgrade.

#177 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:05 pm

also, it seems that some banding is now happening!

#178 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:06 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:there is hope, if the georiga low weakens the ridge and the system moves north!

How would you say that's hope?

#179 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:07 pm

skysummit wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:there is hope, if the georiga low weakens the ridge and the system moves north!

How would you say that's hope?

just forget i said that!

#180 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:08 pm

skysummit wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:there is hope, if the georiga low weakens the ridge and the system moves north!

How would you say that's hope?

He's -removed-.

TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

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