TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6
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- HouTXmetro
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HouTXmetro wrote:So is he history or not? I Just wanna know if I should still be tracking this?
No... the center could reform under the MLC. People should not declare this dead based on what it's done over 2-3 hours.

That being said... if that doesn't happen, it probably is dead.
Last edited by Brent on Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#neversummer
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Wthrman13 wrote:Mac wrote:Wthrman13 wrote:WxGuy1 wrote:A link for those that don't have it -- Wind shear analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Yes, that shows more than 50kts of shear over the central Caribbean! Shear tendency analysis shows that shear has increased over 20kts there in the past day... TD5 MUST slow down if it is going to survive.
Yep, but if you look at the shear tendency map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
You can see a distinct dipole of shear tendency over the Caribbean, with decreasing shear near and just west of TD 5, and increasing shear in the western Caribbean. This suggest to me that the UL is indeed starting to move west, and taking the worst shear with it. If it does it fast enough, TD 5 may just make it.
With all due respect (and I do mean that sincerely), how are the shear tendency maps going to tell us what the shear is going to do TOMORROW, or the day after that. Last I saw, the NHC was forecasting the shear to diminish (although they did not state any high degree of confidence in it happening). Yes, shear has been a problem all season. But the TUTT does appear to be retreating. It's just not clear how quickly it will retreat. And with the TUTT retreating, I believe the shear will retreat as well. I agree that the shear may be a problem in the short term, but this storm seems a little persistent to me. I likewise think it may just hang in there and strengthen as it approaches the GoM.
The only thing I meant to imply by that statement was that the shear tendency dipole strongly implies that the shear axis is moving west *right now*. This is consistent with the model forecasts. It doesn't mean that it will hold true tomorrow. I didn't mean to imply that looking at shear tendency maps was a prediction tool, only that it's a diagnostic tool.
Please let me clarify. I wasn't sniping at you or criticizing what you had said. In fact, I think I agree with you. Mostly I was just voicing my absolute frustration with how useless the usual forecasting tools seem to be this year. Case in point: Yesterday Derek pointed out tht the SHIPs said shear would be a problem for this system. So I asked Derek how much confidence he had in SHIPs. He responded that he was actually pretty confident in the SHIPs. Then, this morning, the SHIPs says that shear should be cut in half and Derek comments that he doesn't have much confidence in the SHIPs forecast.
That just seems the way it has been all year. All, and I mean ALL, of the models appear to be struggling this year. I, for one, would like to know what is causing them to perform so poorly. Is it the abundant TUTT this year??? The weak El Nino conditions??? Something out there is causing them to be weak tools.
Thus, my point about the shear tendency. Even THAT seems a poor forecasting tool to me right now. Things seem to change so much from day to day. There is too much instability to be able to predict anything with any degree of confidence, it seems.
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- Blown Away
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seaswing wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:Interesting new GFLD!!!
Please share?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
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Blown_away wrote:seaswing wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:Interesting new GFLD!!!
Please share?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
Hmmm... that looks a lot like Dennis.
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- HouTXmetro
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OK...recon is now nearing 12.8/66 and is still seeing south winds...now increasing to 25 knots. That jives with the 40 knots that is due north of there and under the convection. There is nothing at the sfc under the MLC and the gradient is too strong at this time for anything to get going.
So...we have a situation here where Ernesto/TD 5 is going to have to start over from scratch once the shear lets up. This MLC will not work its way down...the gradient is too strong and there is speed divergence at the surface under the MLC.
So...we have a situation here where Ernesto/TD 5 is going to have to start over from scratch once the shear lets up. This MLC will not work its way down...the gradient is too strong and there is speed divergence at the surface under the MLC.
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Wx_Warrior wrote:Sorry guys, busy at the newspaper here...My brother (KFDM) sent it to me and sent me some info on what Bastardi said...its already been mentioned on here so I wont repeat posting image:
Dissipating or Florida as of now....key word as of now
You're joking right? JB jumps all the way from Texas to Florida? LOL...that guy cracks me up sometimes.
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What I see now is a naked swirl (TD5?) out running it's convection and heading toward some serious shear. Does anyone want to place bets on whether or not it survives?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Last edited by Stormcenter on Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- southerngale
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ConvergenceZone wrote:I agree, this may go down as one of the most frustrating seasons EVER....I've never ever seen anything like this before...I've never seen the national hurricane center wrong so many times. I'm not blaming them, just stating how damn frustrating this season is even during the peak season(for them too) when conditions suppose to be much much better for development...
If you're getting that frustrated over the lack of developing hurricanes, perhaps it's time to go do something else. Read a book, take a swim, etc. and just check in on the tropics every now and then.

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- Portastorm
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I don't know about this JB information. He says nothing like this on his video this morning or his column. His point has been "should this storm make it past this initial stage, it will likely be a big one and into the Gulf." No different from what most here have said.
Where did he say this "dissipating or Florida" stuff?
Where did he say this "dissipating or Florida" stuff?
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yes, that kfdm said...he will be on later...just agreeing with most about it dying or just shooting up north thru weaker ridge.
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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