Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[mempho]

oh I agree it was a TS earlier and BT will almost certainly reflect this

my question is should it be upgraded now when it is in a weakening trend on the idea that this trend is transient

Shouldn't they at least burn the name so that we are accurate as far as the naming list?

[SouthFloridawx]

So what do we got here?

[TheEuropean]

480
SXXX50 KNHC 251824
AF303 0205A CYCLONE HDOB 16 KNHC
1816. 1248N 06616W 00305 5028 178 026 236 236 027 00287 0000000000
1817 1248N 06614W 00305 5028 179 027 240 238 029 00287 0000000000
1817. 1248N 06612W 00305 5028 178 029 240 232 029 00288 0000000000
1818 1247N 06611W 00305 5027 176 028 240 238 028 00288 0000000000
1818. 1247N 06609W 00305 5027 177 026 236 236 027 00289 0000000000
1819 1246N 06607W 00304 5026 175 027 240 234 028 00289 0000000000
1819. 1245N 06606W 00306 5026 176 025 240 230 026 00291 0000000000
1820 1245N 06604W 00304 5025 171 027 240 234 028 00289 0000000000
1820. 1244N 06603W 00307 5025 170 028 240 238 028 00293 0000000000
1821 1244N 06601W 00306 5025 168 028 240 236 029 00291 0000000000
1821. 1245N 06600W 00305 5025 165 031 240 232 031 00290 0000000000
1822 1247N 06601W 00305 5025 160 030 240 232 031 00291 0000000000
1822. 1248N 06603W 00304 5026 161 028 240 234 028 00289 0000000000
1823 1248N 06605W 00303 5026 162 025 240 234 026 00288 0000000000
1823. 1248N 06606W 00306 5027 163 027 240 230 027 00290 0000000000
1824 1250N 06608W 00304 5028 163 028 240 236 028 00286 0000000000
1824. 1251N 06609W 00307 5028 163 029 240 236 030 00289 0000000000
1825 1252N 06611W 00304 5029 165 027 240 236 028 00285 0000000000
1825. 1253N 06613W 00304 5030 168 027 240 234 027 00285 0000000000
1826 1254N 06615W 00305 5031 163 026 238 238 026 00285 0000000000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres a difference between the earth quake in the hurricane. The earth quake your dead. No quastion. I'm just here to talk about weather so I don't really did or went this.

What's wrong with Steve rooting for an earthquake or volcano? It's NO different that you hooting and hollering for a hurricane.

Senorperp please point out where I said I went this to become a hurricane in make landfall? I just said that it would be a shame that they found 48 knot flight level winds in no tropical storm? Is that wrong. Believe it or not I would find it kind of interesting if a volcano or a half way sizeable earth quake hit. Is that wrong?

[SouthFloridawx]

So what do we got here?

[sevenleft]

So what do we got here?

A tropical cyclone with vertical circulation issues.

[Brent]

So what do we got here?

A tropical system with problems.

[sunny]

Scott_inVA - what does that mean?

[Steve]

You cheered for the LLC. That is all.

Steve

[jlauderdal]

Roland Stedham says it might come back as shear goes down.

Deja Vu alert circa 2003. He isnt allowed to make hurricane predictions now that he is out of Miami and in Salt Lake City.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I cheered for it so it could be a weak tropical storm. Nothing more.

[Steve]

Fair enough.

I don't think anyone would mind a weak TS hitting them (for the most part), but obviously as the pros in this thread have been saying, it's kind of feast or famine. Likely we won't get that until later (if ever) since the few globals that do close something off don't do it for a few days outside of a pulse or two. The 'feast' side of this is that it could be a big bad killer. I love watching these storms form, fade or grow as well Matt. So I think I understand your point. I just don't want to pay anymore than I already have.

Steve

[DESTRUCTION5]

i agree Matt..If this does not redev...Thats 2 names this year that should have been...

[Derek Ortt]

we have a tropical cyclone with a vortex that is aligned more horizontally than vertically

[curtadams]

Why couldn't they just call it Tropical Depression Ernesto and just say that during the day it acquired TS status, but has since weakened.... is it possible for the NHC to do that?

That would be new to me!

It would be fairest (assuming it's no longer a TS by the next update). Remember, they called it a TD - when it couldn't possibly be one - because they weren't 100% sure it was a TS. IMO the strictness of the definitions is causing problems - you can have a TC without a strictly closed surface circ - and this morning TD5 was unquestionably Ernesto even if the circ was technically open a la Quickscat.

At present, though, there's no question that it's a TS. 48kts flight = 40 surface - that's not marginal - plus the Quickscat, large windfield, and closed circ. Doesn't matter if people don't want to work over the weekend and doesn't matter if it's likely to be downgraded in the near future (hasn't anybody yet noticed unlikely things happen in the tropics all the time?

The dissection, incidentally, is being driven by mid-level NW shear, not W upper shear. Not so clear that the TUTT is death since it won't necessarily intensify mid shear. Most globals relax the mid shear rapidly.

[TheEuropean]

836
SXXX50 KNHC 251834
AF303 0205A CYCLONE HDOB 17 KNHC
1826. 1255N 06616W 00306 5031 167 026 240 240 026 00285 0000000000
1827 1257N 06617W 00303 5030 173 024 240 238 024 00283 0000000000
1827. 1259N 06618W 00305 5030 175 022 240 240 022 00285 0000000000
1828 1300N 06619W 00305 5031 177 022 240 240 022 00285 0000000000
1828. 1302N 06621W 00305 5032 175 022 240 238 022 00283 0000000000
1829 1303N 06622W 00305 5034 174 023 240 238 024 00282 0000000000
1829. 1305N 06623W 00305 5034 173 024 242 236 024 00282 0000000000
1830 1306N 06625W 00308 5035 173 023 240 240 023 00284 0000000000
1830. 1307N 06626W 00306 5034 175 023 240 240 023 00282 0000000000
1831 1309N 06628W 00305 5034 181 021 238 238 022 00281 0000000000
1831. 1310N 06629W 00304 5034 183 022 240 234 022 00280 0000000000
1832 1312N 06631W 00306 5035 182 022 240 236 022 00281 0000000000
1832. 1313N 06632W 00304 5035 182 019 240 240 020 00280 0000000000
1833 1315N 06634W 00305 5036 188 020 238 238 021 00279 0000000000
1833. 1316N 06635W 00305 5037 192 020 238 238 020 00279 0000000000
1834 1318N 06636W 00305 5038 192 020 240 240 021 00278 0000000000
1834. 1319N 06638W 00305 5039 193 021 240 238 021 00276 0000000000
1835 1320N 06639W 00305 5040 192 022 242 230 023 00276 0000000000
1835. 1322N 06641W 00304 5040 196 022 242 234 023 00275 0000000000
1836 1323N 06642W 00306 5040 197 023 240 238 023 00276 0000000000

[stormernie]

1834 1318N 06636W 00305 5038 192 020 240 240 021 00278 0000000000
1834. 1319N 06638W 00305 5039 193 021 240 238 021 00276 0000000000
1835 1320N 06639W 00305 5040 192 022 242 230 023 00276 0000000000
1835. 1322N 06641W 00304 5040 196 022 242 234 023 00275 0000000000
1836 1323N 06642W 00306 5040 197 023 240 238 023 00276 0000000000

Help me here is this winds from the SW at 21 - 23 Kts
If so this is at 13.2 66.5 near the sw side of the MLC

Never mind I answer my own question.

[Thunder44]

[Scott_inVA]

Scott_inVA - what does that mean?

Canadian 12Z crosses Cuba and tries to open up the Low with a vort going towards Pensacola and another piece of energy pulled north from Central American coast. Rather odd.

Right now is appears there may be some rotation ahead (west) of the main circulation. o sure if there's something there, just another Low Level Center or intrusion of dry air.

Nuthin's easy

Scott

[Noles2006]

Scott - that's very interesting.