TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[Noles2006]

Stormcenter... I'd say it's not lookin' good for ol' Ernesto/TD5... I'll put a $5 spot on him not surviving...

[benny]

Well all signs are that the center is indeed on the NW side. Will the shear let up enough for another burst to "pull" the center back under it or at least slow it down...??? Westerly winds along the northern coast of S America now well south of the center... the circulation is much better than yesterday but will it survive another day?!?!?

[ConvergenceZone]

OK...recon is now nearing 12.8/66 and is still seeing south winds...now increasing to 25 knots. That jives with the 40 knots that is due north of there and under the convection. There is nothing at the sfc under the MLC and the gradient is too strong at this time for anything to get going.

So...we have a situation here where Ernesto/TD 5 is going to have to start over from scratch once the shear lets up. This MLC will not work its way down...the gradient is too strong and there is speed divergence at the surface under the MLC.

Thanx for the update... bye bye TD5, nice knowing ya....I guess we will have a complete reversal on the next advisory....next in line?

[JonathanBelles]

What I see now is a naked swirl (TD5?) out running it's convection and heading toward some serious shear. Does anyone want to place bets on whether or not it survives?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

what happenend?!?!?

[Air Force Met]

Sorry guys, busy at the newspaper here...My brother (KFDM) sent it to me and sent me some info on what Bastardi said...its already been mentioned on here so I wont repeat posting image:

Dissipating or Florida as of now....key word as of now

Well...this morning JB said that FLorida has the LOWEST chance of any Gulf state....that the highest chance is LA and TX...if it survives....and I haven't seen an update from him...and doubt he would flip that quick (he doesn't flip flop on these things...he rides the plane down).

[MississippiHurricane]

Hmm I wonder what that model sees that i dont. The rest take it to Mexico thus far.

[Portastorm]

yes, that what it said....dont shoot the messenger.

I'm not but I'd like to know where you heard this. TV? Radio? Because he sure hasn't said as much in his column or on his video. That's my point.

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 251834
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 1800 060826 0600 060826 1800 060827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 68.9W 16.0N 71.1W 17.2N 73.3W
BAMM 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.0N 71.8W 17.0N 74.2W
A98E 14.1N 67.1W 14.8N 69.8W 15.6N 72.2W 16.5N 74.5W
LBAR 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.2N 71.8W 17.2N 74.2W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 1800 060828 1800 060829 1800 060830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 75.7W 19.6N 80.7W 20.2N 85.9W 21.2N 90.7W
BAMM 18.2N 76.7W 19.9N 81.5W 21.0N 86.1W 22.2N 90.0W
A98E 17.7N 77.0W 19.6N 82.4W 21.2N 87.7W 22.6N 92.2W
LBAR 18.3N 76.6W 20.9N 81.0W 22.4N 85.2W 24.0N 88.9W
SHIP 68KTS 78KTS 81KTS 82KTS
DSHP 68KTS 72KTS 74KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 67.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 64.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 61.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Air Force Met]

Sorry guys, busy at the newspaper here...My brother (KFDM) sent it to me and sent me some info on what Bastardi said...its already been mentioned on here so I wont repeat posting image:

Dissipating or Florida as of now....key word as of now

You're joking right? JB jumps all the way from Texas to Florida? LOL...that guy cracks me up sometimes.

I doubt he said it...JB doesn't flip-flop like that...and there is no update on the site...I think he is talking about another system and the second hand info is confused.

Here is a quote: "This is what is going on now off Florida and this has to be watched."

People mis-quote him all the time...and this is part (notice I said "PART") of the reason he gets a bad rap...people can't get the quotes right.

[Wthrman13]

Please let me clarify. I wasn't sniping at you or criticizing what you had said. In fact, I think I agree with you. Mostly I was just voicing my absolute frustration with how useless the usual forecasting tools seem to be this year. Case in point: Yesterday Derek pointed out tht the SHIPs said shear would be a problem for this system. So I asked Derek how much confidence he had in SHIPs. He responded that he was actually pretty confident in the SHIPs. Then, this morning, the SHIPs says that shear should be cut in half and Derek comments that he doesn't have much confidence in the SHIPs forecast.

That just seems the way it has been all year. All, and I mean ALL, of the models appear to be struggling this year. I, for one, would like to know what is causing them to perform so poorly. Is it the abundant TUTT this year??? The weak El Nino conditions??? Something out there is causing them to be weak tools.

Thus, my point about the shear tendency. Even THAT seems a poor forecasting tool to me right now. Things seem to change so much from day to day. There is too much instability to be able to predict anything with any degree of confidence, it seems.

Don't worry, I didn't take it as "sniping" at all. It was a legitimate question. However, I do disagree about the model performance this year as relative to other years. I haven't seen anything in the models that leads me to believe that they are having any worse of a time forecasting shear conditions as they did last year. The models are *always* poor at this sort of thing. It just so happens that this year the conditions are more hostile in this regard, and this gives more opportunities for the models to "screw up".

One thing to keep in mind when analyzing the dynamical model output is to look for general trends, and then use your knowledge and experience of tropical meteorology, as well as the model performance itself, to come to a reasoned forecast. In this case, the models have consistently moving the UL west ahead of TD 5, but they disagree on how fast, and how quickly it weakens. Small differences can have a huge impact on how much TD 5 gets sheared over the next few days, and thus whether it survives, and this is actually a common situation. As long as one recognizes this about the models, you will see how useful they actually are. It's just when you start getting bogged down in the details and the differences between them, that the situation starts to appear hopeless .

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm I wonder what that model sees that i dont. The rest take it to Mexico thus far.

I think if it would have survived, it would have went to Northern Mexico anyway, but that's bad enough.... If it was a strong storm/hurricane, I'd give it hope to make it through the shear, but I can't see any hope with a tropical wave going through strong shear. We may not even be able to identify what's left of it by that time anyway.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

yes, that what it said....dont shoot the messenger.

I'm not but I'd like to know where you heard this. TV? Radio? Because he sure hasn't said as much in his column or on his video. That's my point.

Judging by past JB hype (Chris) by now he should have been warning us here in Texas if we were going to get hit. And he would have been telling us what kind of 'cane would hit us too. My guess he's waiting to see if indeed this thing survives. Going by the rule of burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, shame on me.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

WOAH: Models initialize as TS Ernesto!!

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060825 1800 UTC

[Air Force Met]

What I see now is a naked swirl (TD5?) out running it's convection and heading toward some serious shear. Does anyone want to place bets on whether or not it survives?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

what happenend?!?!?

Well...1) The graveyard happened...and
2) For all those (and I am thinking of 1 person in particular) who said we were over-playing the shear...we weren't. The shear took the MLC away from the LLC.

Ernie is having some seperation anxiety.

[DESTRUCTION5]

WOAH: Models initialize as TS Ernesto!!

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060825 1800 UTC

Bingo

[Evil Jeremy]

why is everyone writing this system off?

[rnbaida]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO

[HouTXmetro]

Meaning?

[Mac]

Wthrman13:

I'll tell you what...I'll leave the analsysis of the atmospheric synoptics to you, since that's your stock and trade. I'm just a rookie. However, if you ever find yourself in need of an expert in trauma and emergency medicine...I'm your man. LOL

[rnbaida]

:uarrow: Meaning?

uhh, that we have a TS..uhhh...are you OK???